THE HIDDEN WORLD OF UNCONSCIOUS BIAS 435
1. Confirmation Bias
“Confirmation bias is the tendency to [unconsciously] bolster a
hypothesis,” belief, or expectation by seeking and/or favoring
confirming information while mini mizing or ignoring disconfirming
information.
120
Once people form a hypothesis, “they search for
information to support it, interpret ambiguous information as
consistent with it, and minimize inconsistent evidence.”
121
Even in
situations where there is no prior relevant reason to confirm a
hypothesis, “people [nonetheless] tend to favo[r] confirmation as the
default testing strategy.”
122
The empirical research has produced
overwhelming data to support the existence of confirmation bias
across diverse judgment contexts, such as economics, criminal
investigations, medical decision-making, political beliefs, logical
problem solving, forensic analysis, and social interaction.
123
The
120
Barbara O’Brien, Prime Suspect: An Examination of Factors that
Aggravate and Counteract Confirmation Bias in Criminal Investigations, 15
PSYCHOL., PUB. POL’Y & L. 315, 315 (2009); see also Findley & Scott, supra note
116, at 309 (“[T]he tendency to seek or interpret evidence in ways that support
existing beliefs, expectations, or hypotheses.”); Martine B. Powell et al., Skills in
Interviewing Reduces Confirmation Bias, 9 J. INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOL. &
OFFENDER PROFILING 126, 126 (2012); Eric Rassin, Blindness to Alternative
Scenarios in Evidence Evaluation, 7 J. INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOL. & OFFENDER
PROFILING 153, 154 (2010).
121
O’Brien, supra note 120, at 328; see also Karl Ask et al., The ‘Elasticity’
of Criminal Evidence: A Moderator of Investigation Bias, 22 APPLIED COGNITIVE
PSYCHOL. 1245, 1246 (2008); Alafair Burke, Neutralizing Cognitive Bias: An
Invitation to Prosecutors, 2 N.Y.U. J.L. & LIBERTY 512, 516–17 (2007).
122
Eric Rassin et al., Let’s Find the Evidence: An Analogue Study of
Confirmation Bias in Criminal Investigations, J. INVESTIGATIVE PSYCHOL. &
OFFENDER PROFILING 231, 232 (2010).
123
Ask et al., supra note 121, at 1246; see Rassin et al., supra note 122, at
231; Galit Nahari & Gershon Ben-Shakhar, Primacy Effect in Credibility
Judgments: The Vulnerability of Verbal Cues to Biased Interpretations, 27
APPLIED CONGNITIVE PSYCHOL. 247, 247 (2013). The recent report produced by
Columbia University School of Journalism evaluating what went wrong with the
Rolling Stone article entitled “A Rape on Campus” cited confirmation bias as
having played a role in the journalistic failures of that article:
The problem of confirmation bias – the tendency of people to
be trapped by pre-existing assumptions and to select facts that
support their own views while overlooking contradictory ones
– is a well-established finding of social science. It seems to have