85

*
WHAT WENT WRONG WITH
THE “ZERO PROBLEM WITH
NEIGHBORS” DOCTRINE?
With the “Arab Spring”, long-standing institutional structures have turned upside
down both within the region and in Turkey’s relations with the regional states.
Turkey’s “zero problem” doctrine has been called into question ever since the
demonstrations in Syria have turned into violent clashes between the supporters
of Assad’s regime and the protestors, leading Turkey to take on a tough stance
against the Syrian regime, and marring Turkey’s relations with Iran and Iraq. In
addition to the domestic factors that affected the pace of events in Syria, it is
equally crucial to consider a number of external factors. The position of Iran and
Russia on the one side, and Israel and the United States on the other, have had a
decisive impact on the course of events in Syria, signicantly constraining Turkey
from pursuing its own interests in the region.

QUARTERLY
VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3
86
         
-
     
       -





-
-
-









The “Good Old Days”


-

1

de facto-
-





Global Security Watch – Turkey: A Reference Handbook     


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TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY
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   
     


    


   -
       

     

    
  
     



-






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


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-

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            



  Hürriyet,  

3 


“The demonstrations in
Syria that have turned into
violent clashes between
supporters and protestors of
Assad’s regime, have caused
Turkey to take a tough stance
against Damascus, thereby
marring its relations with
Iran and Iraq.”
VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3
88

-
-


-


   
     -

   



          
vis-à-vis

5


-


The Role of External Actors









  et aBehavior,
Society, and Nuclear War
5 
(Al Muhaberat
“The axis formed by the
Hezbollah rule in Lebanon,
the Assad regime in Syria,
and the Molla regime in Iran
provides Tehran enormous
leverage in its stance toward
Israel and the U.S.”

TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY
www.turkishpolicy.com

Iran’s Concerns


     
      
-
     
      
     

      

    
-


   







Russia’s Concerns






-


6

    
         Channel News Asia,    

“To a great extent, Russia’s
attitude has determined the
pace of events in Syria, as
the Assad leadership felt
they could act with impunity
while using brutal military
force against their own
population.”

VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3



-
     



 -
     -
      




7
            










Concerns of Israel and the United States

-
-
modus operandi
   

8

-

7          CSIS  

Middle East Peace Process: Historical Background and a Detailed Chronology from 1990
to Present 
“Israeli authorities have
serious concerns regarding
the large stockpile of
weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) currently located
in Syria.”

TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY
www.turkishpolicy.com

     

-

     

-





-


-


-







-


Implications for Turkey






     
“With nearly 120,000
refugees on the Turkish
side of the border, Ankara
appears to be alone in its
tough stance against the
Assad regime.”

VOLUME 11 NUMBER 3



     
    
   -
     
     
    
     






-





11
-


-










Reuters,

   Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 

     Al Arabiya News, 

                
 CNN International,    

“It should have been
considered that neither
Bashar al-Assad nor any
body that may have replaced
him would have been able
to behave in a significantly
different manner.”

TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY
www.turkishpolicy.com

Conclusion
      















     

-
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