WEEK OF JULY 29 - AUGUST 2, 2024 DAIRY MARKET NEWS VOLUME 91, REPORT 31
DAIRY MARKET NEWS AT A GLANCE
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Domestic demand is indicated as weak outside of contracted loads.
Dry whole milk had slight upward price movement. Inventories
continue to be tight. Dry whey prices climbed upward across all
regions. Dry whey availability is tight. Whey protein concentrate
(WPC) 34% prices are unchanged. Domestic demand for WPC 34%
continues to be weak. Lactose prices were mostly steady. Lactose
production is limited with seasonally lighter milk intakes. Acid and
rennet casein prices held steady. Demands are mixed.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WEST
EUROPE: Although EU milk output is generally above last year’s
volume for the first five months of the year, weekly milk collections
are seasonally decreasing. As milk volumes fade in the summer heat,
cream has also become less available. Industry sources say cream
prices have risen and so has demand for the fresh market products
that use cream. As the summer holidays end, market participants
expect a rise in demand for most dry dairy ingredients, butter, and
cheese. The monthly weighted average price for EU 27 farmgate
milk has stayed near 46 euros per 100 kg for much of the first half
of the year, with most of the EU 27 countries having a pay price
between 40 and 50 euros per 100 kg in the month of June. Current
weekly milk spot prices in the upper 50 euros per 100 kg are
common. While the higher milk pay prices and the lower feed costs
have helped farmer finances improve, lower numbers of dairy cows
on the continent and tight supplies of replacement heifers have
slowed the potential growth of milk output in some regions of
Europe. EAST EUROPE: Milk production in East Europe
continues to grow year over year, even as seasonal milk output
slows. Decreases in feed costs, coupled with consistently supportive
milk pay prices have help maintain farm financials, leading to
expanded milk production. The May farm milk pay price in Poland
was 46.34 euros/ 100 kg compared to 45.90 euros/100 kg across the
EU 27.
AUSTRALIA: In Australia, farmgate milk prices for the 2024 -
2025 season were cut by around 15 percent from several processors,
amid increasing competition from imported dairy products. A
spokesperson for a dairy farming group within Australia stated input
costs have increased in recent years and lower milk prices will add
further pressure on dairy producers, which could drive more dairy
farmers out of the market. A representative from a processor within
the country noted lower priced butter and cheese imported into
Australia is negatively impacting sales within Australia. NEW
ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for June 2024
was recently released. This data showed total June 2024 production
was down 1.1 percent on a tonnage basis compared to a year earlier.
Export data for June 2024 was recently released for New Zealand.
This data showed a combined 10 percent decrease in value for milk
powder, butter, and cheese exported in June 2024 compared to June
2023. A group in New Zealand, which forecasts dairy production, is
forecasting the volume of milk solids produced in New Zealand in
July to decline by 0.2 percent from 2023, but they anticipate the
volume of milk solids produced in the country to increase compared
to last year from August through October.
SOUTH AMERICA: Substantial seasonal increases in milk
production are yet to be detected in South America. Contacts
suggest favorable weather conditions for cow comfort will spark
increases in milk production in the near term. According to the
USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) Argentine Grain and Feed
Update published last week, corn production in marketing year
2024/2025 is projected at 49 million tons, 2 million tons lower than
USDA estimates due to smaller planted acreage. Corn exports
remain nearly unchanged at 35.5 million tons. Another FAS report
released in July detailed the adverse effects of inflation on the
Argentine dairy industry. Total milk production for 2024 is expected
to fall 7 percent from 11.7 million tons in 2023 to 10.8 million tons.
Rising prices for dairy products have changed purchasing behavior,
and domestic fluid milk consumption for 2024 is forecast to fall 7
percent from 2024. Inflation and currency devaluation have
prompted traders in Argentina to question whether to preserve stocks
or trade on an international scale due to the competitiveness of
current domestic price points.
NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: The week 31 retail ad survey
contained 8 percent more conventional dairy ads, compared to the
prior week, while the number of organic dairy ads grew by 262
percent. The most advertised conventional commodity this week
was cheese, despite a 7 percent decline in total ads from last week.
The most advertised organic commodity in week 31 was milk, for
which ads increased by 800 percent.
JUNE AGRICULTURAL PRICES HIGHLIGHTS (NASS):
The All Milk price received by farmers was $22.80 in June, up
$5.00 from June 2023. The alfalfa hay price was $195.00 in June,
down $68.00 from June 2023. The corn price was $4.48 in June,
down 2.01 from June 2023. The soybean price was $11.80 in June,
down $2.40 from June 2023. The milk-feed price ratio was 2.36 in
June, up 1.01 from June 2023. The index of prices received by
farmers for dairy products during the month of June 2024 was up
3.9 to 113.4. Compared to June 2023, the index was up 24.8 points
(+28.0 percent). The index of prices paid by farmers for
commodities and services, interest, taxes, and wage rates in June
2024 was 139.6 was down 0.3 from May 2024. Compared with June
2023, the index was down 0.2 (-0.1 percent).
JULY FINAL CLASS PRICES (FMMO): The following are
the July 2024 class prices under the Federal milk order pricing
system and changes from the previous month: Class II: $21.82
($+0.22), Class III: $19.79 ($-0.08), and Class IV: $21.31 ($+0.23).
Under the Federal milk order pricing system, the butterfat price for
July 2024 is $3.5720 per pound. Thus, the Class II butterfat price is
$3.5790 per pound. The protein and other solids prices for July 2024
are $1.9466 and $0.2571 per pound, respectively. These component
prices set the Class III skim milk price at $7.55 per cwt. The July
2024 Class IV skim milk price is $9.13, which is derived from the
nonfat solids price of $1.0149 per pound. The product price
averages for July 2024 are: butter $3.1211, nonfat dry milk $1.1930,
cheese $1.9717, and dry whey $0.4487.
NOTICE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), on July 1,
2024, issued a Recommended Decision on its website proposing to
amend the pricing provisions in the 11 Federal milk marketing orders
(FMMOs). For more information, visit: https://www.ams.usda.gov/
rules-regulations/moa/dairy/hearings/national-fmmo-pricing-hearing
The official version of the recommended decision was published
July 15, 2024 in the Federal Register. The deadline for comments is
September 13, 2024. USDA is under ex parte until a final decision is
published, so the FMMO Hearing Team is unable to respond to
substantive questions. For any process-related questions, please
NOTICE: USDA Commodity Procurement has issued solicitations for
the following dairy products:
Cheddar Cheese: The solicitation number is 2000010263 and runs
from July 26, 2024, to August 9, 2024.
Solicitation documents, including the bid invitation, are available
online at the following website:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/selling-food/solicitations under the Dairy
Products tab.
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