908 NYU JOURNAL OF LAW & BUSINESS [Vol. 14:805
During the same period, CO
2
levels moved steadily up-
ward from about 320 ppm in 1960 to somewhat over 400 ppm
today. As Lindzen has observed, “the warming episode from
about 1978 to 1998 appeared to have ceased and temperatures
have remained almost constant since 1998.”
322
As he then
notes, it follows necessarily that all of the temperature reports
in last 18 years have been close to the high point, given that
there has been no decline in temperature. The monotonic in-
creases in the level of CO
2
, whether natural or man-made, can-
not explain why temperatures first rose, then declined, and
then rose again, only to remain flat thereafter. Any single
driver for temperature thus has to be ruled out on this data.
CO
2
levels surely play some role, but so must other factors.
The approximately 13 percent increase in CO
2
levels over the
last 18 years has generated at most only modest atmospheric
temperature increases, which raises the claim, strongly denied
by others, of a “pause” in global warming.
323
Indeed, there is
scant evidence that even major reductions in the overall level
of CO
2
are likely to have an appreciable effect on long-term
global warming in light of the interplay of social forces.
324
Per-
haps some insidious effects of CO
2
may be delayed, but at the
very least those additional complications cast doubt on
Schneiderman’s categorical conclusions.
322. Richard Lindzen, Thoughts on the Public Discourse over Climate Change,
M
ERION
W
EST
(
Apr. 25, 2017), http://merionwest.com/2017/04/25/rich
ard-lindzen-thoughts-on-the-public-discourse-over-climate-change/.
323. For rival views, see Brian Kahn, No Pause in Global Warming,
S
CI
. A
M
.
(June 4, 2015), http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/no-pause-in-
global-warming/ (“The global warming hiatus—a decade-plus slowdown in
warming—could be chalked up to some buoys, a few extra years of data and
a couple buckets of seawater.”); John C. Fyfe et al., Making Sense of the Early-
2000s Warming Slowdown, 6
N
ATURE
C
LIMATE
C
HANGE
224, 224 (2016) (“It
has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus,
characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been over-
stated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The
evidence presented here contradicts these claims.”).
324. The U.S. contribution to reduced global temperatures in 2100 would
be about 0.03 of a degree, using the EPA’s own climate model, under as-
sumptions that exaggerate the effectiveness of the policies. Note that the
standard deviation of the temperature record is about 0.1 of a degree, so
that the U.S. effect would not be measurable against normal variation. See
Benjamin Zycher, The Carbon Tax is Not Just Political; It’s Ineffective, Too,
T
HE
H
ILL
(Sept. 28, 2016, 2:01 PM), http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/en
ergy-environment/298285-the-carbon-tax-is-not-just-political-its-ineffective.