Climate Adaptation Planning: Guidance for Emergency Managers
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assessments are the basis for determining
which adaptation strategies will provide the
greatest risk avoidance and reduction.
In some cases, risk can be determined with a
relatively high level of accuracy. For example,
with projected flooding impacts on
infrastructure, a simple engineering analysis
can determine if a highway, bridge, building,
electrical grid component, or element of the
telecommunications infrastructure will be
compromised and possibly damaged. The
planning team can then use this information
to estimate the level of damage that might
occur and thus the costs of replacing or fixing
the damaged components. However, for other
types of vulnerabilities, such as with human populations, it is more difficult to quantify damage or
loss, including the loss of life.
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For example, people displaced from their homes due to floods or
extreme temperatures may also face emotional, psychological, physical, and social stress due to the
disruption to their lives.
Risk assessments need to account for the probability or likelihood of these events occurring and the
likelihood of damage. The costs associated with damage or loss to the facility or asset are often
factored in as well. Yet, risk analysis differs under climate change because the environment is not
static, meaning that the risk of an event occurring will shift over time. For example, what has
historically been a 1 percent flood event (1-in-100 years) may now be a 1.25 percent flood event (1-
in-80 years), given recent climate changes. The same event might have a 2 percent (1-in-50 years)
probability of occurrence by 2050 and a 5 percent (1-in-20 years) probability of occurrence by 2100.
Similarly, the amount of damage or loss from an event may change over time as the impacts become
more severe under climate change (e.g., higher floodwaters). The use of climate scenarios is one way
of capturing a range of possible values for key climate conditions, such as temperatures and
precipitation. The scenarios then enable planners to evaluate how different amounts of change can
impact risk outcomes.
Planners must consider the cost due to damage or loss, which is more than simply the replacement
or repair cost. It often includes the societal costs of losing the functionality of the asset or facility. For
example, a damaged bridge will have costs associated with repair or replacement, but there will also
be costs to those having to find other paths to their destinations (e.g., detour time) and to those who
now have more limited options for moving people and goods.
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For more information on the value of statistical life, see https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/data-glossary#VSL or
https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/mortality-risk-valuation.
THIRA/ SPR and Mitigation Planning
FEMA’s Job Aid “Increasing Resilience using
THIRA/SPR and Mitigation Planning”
describes the similarities and differences
between hazard mitigation planning and the
THIRA/Stakeholder Preparedness Review
(SPR) process and provides an overview of an
optional approach to streamline state, tribal,
and territory submissions of the hazard
mitigation plan and the THIRA/SPR. This
optional approach may reduce duplication and
maximize efficient use of these processes.
Source: https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-
09/fema_thira-hmp_jobaid.pdf