The Composition of the European Parliament

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for the AFCO Committee

The Com position of

the European

Parliament

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Directorate General for Internal Policies of the Union

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PE583.117- February2017



DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES

POLICY DEPARTMENT C: CITIZENS' RIGHTS AND

CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS

THE COMPOSITION OF THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT

WORKSHOP

3O January 2017

Compilation: Two briefings and one in-depth

analysis

PE 583 117 EN

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

____________________________________________________________________________________________

ABOUT THE PUBLICATION

These research papers were requested by the European Parliament's Committee on

Constitutional Affairs and were commissioned, overseen and published by the Policy

Department for Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs.

Policy departments provide independent expertise, both in-house and externally, to support

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Research Administrator Responsible

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Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

European Parliament

B-1047 Brussels

E-mail: poldep-citizens@europarl.europa.eu

Editorial Assistant

Christina KATSARA

AUTHORS

Professor Geoffrey GRIMMETT, University of Cambridge

Professor Dr. Friedrich PUKELSHEIM, University of Augsburg

Professor Victoriano RAMÍREZ GONZÁLEZ, University of Granada

Dr Wojciech SŁOMCZYŃSKI, Jagiellonian University, Cracow

Professor Karol ŻYCZKOWSKI, Jagiellonian University, Cracow

LINGUISTIC VERSIONS

Original: EN

Manuscript completed in February 2017

This document is available on the internet at:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/supporting-analyses

The Composition of the European Parliament

CONTENTS

LINKING THE PERMANENT SYSTEM OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS IN

THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT WITH THE DOUBLE-MAJORITY VOTING IN

THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERs 5

Prof. Dr. Friedrich PUKELSHEIM AND Prof. Geoffrey GRIMMETT

1. TWO PROPOSALS FOR THE ALLOCATION OF EP SEATS 5

2. FURTHER PROPOSALS 9

3. DEGRESSIVE PROPORTIONALITY 9

4. POPULATION CRITERION 10

5. INTER-INSTITUTIONAL BALANCE 10

6. RECOMMENDATIONS 11

7.SEAT ALLOCATION TABLES FOR THE 2019 EP 12

THE r-DP METHODS TO ALLOCATE THE EP SEATS TO MEMBER STATES 23

Prof. Victoriano RAMÍREZ GONZÁLEZ

1. INTRODUCTION 23

2. NON-DEGRESSIVITY AND OTHER FORMS OF ILLOGICAL BEHAVIOUR IN

CURRENT EP COMPOSITION 25

3. WHY DOES THE MINIMUM CORRESPOND TO 6 SEATS AND THE MAXIMUM TO

96? 26

4. WHY MUST THE REPRESENTATION IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT NOT BE

PROPORTIONAL? 26

5. THE FAMILY OF r-DP METHODS 27

6. THE COMPOSITION OF THE EP AFTER BREXIT 32

7. CONCLUSIONS 35

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

4

DEGRESSIVE PROPORTIONALITY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 37

Dr. Wojciech SŁOMCZYŃSKI and Prof. Karol ŻYCZKOWSKI

1.ALLOCATING SEATS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 37

2.RECOMMENDED SOLUTIONS FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 42

3.THE SYSTEM OF VOTING IN THE COUNCIL OF THE EU 47

The Composition of the European Parliament

5

LINKING THE PERMANENT SYSTEM OF THE DISTRIBUTION

OF SEATS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT WITH THE

DOUBLE-MAJORITY VOTING IN THE COUNCIL OF

MINISTERS

Prof. Dr. Friedrich PUKELSHEIM and Prof. Geoffrey

GRIMMETT

KEY FINDINGS

 This paper proposes the adoption of the Cambridge Compromise which is a

transparent allocation method for determining the composition of the European

Parliament (EP). The method is responsive to population changes and impartial to

politics as well as objective, fair and durable. An alternative method is the

Cambridge Compromise with power-adjusted populations, called Power

Compromise for short. The latter is more flexible with respect to the 2014 alloca-

tion, but at the cost of some transparency, arising through the involvement of an

additional power parameter.

 The EP composition must obey the operational principle of degressive

proportionality whereby the Member States’ representation ratios, that is, the

population figure divided by the number of seats before rounding, are decreasing

when passing from a more populous Member State to a less populous Member State.

 The same population figures should be used for the EP composition and for the

qualified majority voting rule in the Council.

 The Jagiellonian Compromise is a qualified majority voting rule for the Council

providing a more principled method than the current double-majority voting rule.

 Our principal recommendation is twofold: the adoption of the Cambridge

Compromise, and the (independent) adoption of the Jagiellonian Compromise. While

each of these two recommendations stands alone, their coordinated adoption as a

pair will bring a balance to the dual structure of Parliament and Council.

 Seat allocation tables for the 2019 EP are shown for a Union including the UK.

For a Union without the UK, three scenarios are adjoined: with 751 EP seats (maxi-

mum size), with 678 EP seats (without the 73 UK seats), and with 723 EP seats.

The last is the smallest EP size for which the Power Compromise assigns to every

Member State at least as many seats as in its 2014 allocation.

1. TWO PROPOSALS FOR THE ALLOCATION OF EP SEATS

The European Council Decision of 2013 establishing the composition of the EP states in its

Art.4 that the decision shall be revised with the aim of establishing a system to allocate the

seats between Member States in an objective, fair, durable and transparent way:

1

This Decision shall be revised sufficiently far in advance of the beginning of the 2019-2024

parliamentary term on the basis of an initiative of the European Parliament presented before the

end of 2016 with the aim of establishing a system which in future will make it possible, before each

fresh election to the European Parliament, to allocate the seats between Member States in an

objective, fair, durable and transparent way, translating the principle of degressive proportionality

1

OJ L 181, 29.6.2013, pp. 57–58 (www.uni-augsburg.de/bazi/OJ/2013L181p57.pdf).

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

6

as laid down in Article 1, taking account of any change in their number and demographic trends in

their population, as duly ascertained thus respecting the overall balance of the institutional system

as laid down in the Treaties.

We propose two allocation methods that satisfy the requirements well: the Cambridge

Compromise,

2

and the Power Compromise.

3

The operational details of the two

procedures are presented first. Thereafter follow assessments of the methods’ merits from

the viewpoint of primary and secondary Union law.

Cambridge compromise

The Cambridge Compromise may be paraphrased as follows:

 Every Member State is assigned a common number of base seats. The remaining

seats are allocated proportionately to population figures, using the divisor method

with upward rounding and subject to a maximum allocation. In the case of the

current EP, the number of base seats is 5, so that the least populous Member State

finishes with 6 seats, and the proportional allocation is capped in order to produce a

maximum of 96 seats.

For instance, in Table 1 the Cambridge Compromise proceeds as follows:

 Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 846 000 citizens

or part thereof, with a maximum cap of 96 seats.

The currently smallest State, Malta, ends with a final tally of 6 seats (with only 4 base

seats, Malta would finish with 5 seats; with 6 base seats, it would finish with 7 seats). The

initial assignment of 5 base seats to each of the 28 Member States utilises a total of 140

seats, leaving 611 seats for the proportional allocation.

The remaining 611 seats are allocated using the divisor method with upward rounding. The

allocation key to be determined is the so-called divisor (846 000).

4

For example, when

dividing the Austrian population 8 711 500 by 846 000, the resulting quotient is 10.3. This

quotient is rounded upwards to obtain the number of proportionality seats (11). Thus

Austria is allocated a total of 16 seats: 5 base seats plus 11 proportionality seats. A similar

calculation is carried out for the other Member States. In the case of Germany, the quotient

5 + 97.003 = 102.003 exceeds the capping and is replaced by the 96 seat maximum.

Tables 1, 3, 5 illustrate the Cambridge Compromise, with 5 base seats in each case.

2

G.R. Grimmett / J.-F. Laslier / F. Pukelsheim / V. Ramírez González / R. Rose / W. Słomczyński / M. Zachariasen /

K. Życzkowski: The Allocation Between the EU Member States of the Seats in the European Parliament – Cam-

bridge Compromise. Note. European Parliament, Directorate-General for Internal Policies, Policy Department C:

Citizen's Rights and Constitutional Affairs, PE 432.760, March 2011 (www.uni-augsburg.de/pukelsheim/2011f.pdf).

3

G.R. Grimmett / K.-F. Oelbermann / F. Pukelsheim: A power-weighted variant of the EU27 Cambridge Compro-

mise. Mathematical Social Sciences 63, 2012, pp. 136-140 (www.uni-augsburg.de/pukelsheim/2012a.pdf). – Power

adjustments have been proposed in the literature since quite some time. See, for example: (1) H. Theil: The

desired political entropy. American Political Science Review 63, 1969, pp. 521-525. (2) H. Theil / L. Schrage: The

apportionment problem and the European Parliament. European Economic Review 9, 1977, pp. 247-263.

(3) A. Moberg: The voting system in the Council of the European Union. The balance between large and small

countries. Scandinavian Political Studies 21, 1998, pp. 347-365. Reprinted in: A. Moberg: The Weight of Nations.

Four Papers on the Institutional Negotiations in the EU 1996–2007. Malmö, 2014 (www.uni-augsburg.de/ bazi/Mo-

berg2014.pdf). (4) F. Arndt: Distribution of seats at the European Parliament – Democratic political equality, pro-

tection of diversity and the enlargement process. In: The Emerging Constitutional Law of the European Union –

German and Polish Perspectives, Beiträge zum ausländischen öffentlichen Recht und Völkerrecht 163, 2003, pp.

93-115. (5) F. Arndt: Ausrechnen statt aushandeln: Rationalitätsgewinne durch ein formalisiertes Modell für die

Bestimmung der Zusammensetzung des Europäischen Parlaments (with an English summary). Zeitschrift für aus-

ländisches öffentliches Recht und Völkerrecht – Heidelberg Journal of International Law 68, 2008, pp. 247-279.

4

An efficient way to determine the divisor is discussed, for example, in Sect. 4.6 of F. Pukelsheim: Proportional

Representation – Apportionment Methods and Their Applications. With a Foreword by Andrew Duff MEP. Cham,

2014 (www.uni-augsburg.de/pukelsheim/2014a-FrontMatter.pdf).

The Composition of the European Parliament

7

Power Compromise

The Power Compromise is a variant of the Cambridge Compromise that refers not to original

population figures, but to power-adjusted population units. It may be worded as follows:

 Every Member State is assigned a common number of base seats. The remaining

seats are allocated proportionately to adjusted population units (that is, the

population figures raised to a common power) using the divisor method with upward

rounding. In the case of the current EP, the number of base seats, the power, and

the divisor are determined so that the least populous Member State is allocated 6

seats, the most populous is allocated just 96 seats, and the size of the EP is 751.

For instance, in Table 2 the method proceeds as follows:

 Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 254 500 adjusted

population units or part thereof, where the adjusted units are obtained by raising the

population figures to the power 0.93.

The power 0.93 is determined so that the most populous Member State is allocated just 96

seats.

5

The divisor 254 500 is determined so that the 28 Member States altogether are

allocated 751 seats. The base seat assignment in Table 2 is identical to that of Table 1,

namely 5. The presence of these allocation keys is dictated by the goal to satisfy the

requirements of primary and secondary Union law as discussed below.

Tables 2, 4, 6, 7 illustrate the Power Compromise. The number of base seats varies, with

Tables 2 and 6 using 5 base seats, and Tables 4 and 7 using 4 base seats.

In all seven Tables, the number of seats remaining for proportional allocation depends on

the numbers of base seats (4 or 5) and of Member States (28 or 27), and on the EP size

under consideration (751 or 678 or 723 seats).

Assessment by primary Union law

Primary Union Law, as set forth in the Treaty on European Union (TEU), lays conditions

upon possible allocation methods.

6

Of particular relevance are the following requirements

which we rearrange and paraphrase to ease cross-referencing in this briefing.

1. Citizens are directly represented in the EP (Art. 10(2) TEU).

2. The EP shall be composed of representatives of the Union’s citizens (Art. 14(2)

TEU).

3. Representation of citizens shall be degressively proportional (Art. 14(2) TEU).

4. The size of the EP shall not exceed 751 seats (Art. 14(2) TEU).

5. Every Member State shall be allocated at least 6 seats (Art. 14(2) TEU).

6. Every Member State shall be allocated at most 96 seats (Art. 14(2) TEU).

There is a potential ambiguity in the term ‘‘Member State’’ over whether it refers to govern-

ment or to people. When “Member State” is interpreted to mean “government”, Art. 10(2)

TEU decrees that the appropriate representative body is the European Council and the

Council, rather than the EP. As far as the composition of the EP is concerned, the term

“Member State” means people, that is, a Member State’s citizenry.

The Cambridge Compromise complies perfectly well with requirements 1 and 2. The initial

assignment of base seats to a Member State secures the representation of its citizenry as a

whole. The subsequent proportional allocation of the remaining seats represents the

5

Generally there are several powers that guarantee 96 seats for the most populous Member States. For the data in

Table 2 five powers serve the purpose: 0.93, 0.932, 0.935, 0.937, 0.94. The smallest power (0.93) conforms best

to the principle of degressive proportionality. Powers larger than 0.93 involve the transfer of a seat from a less

populous Member State to a more populous Member State: for 0.932 from Lithuania to Poland, for 0.935 from

Poland to United Kingdom, for 0.937 from the Netherlands to Poland, and for 0.94 from Portugal to Italy. The

selection of the smallest power is expressed by saying that the most populous Member State realizes “just” 96

seats. An efficient algorithm to determine the power is described in Grimmett et al., note 3; see also Sect. 12.8 of

Pukelsheim, note 4. The algorithm is implemented in the free software Bazi (www.uni-augsburg.de/bazi/).

6

OJ C 326, 26.10.2012, pp. 13–45 (http://www.uni-augsburg.de/bazi/OJ/2012C326p13.pdf).

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

8

citizens as individuals. Degressive proportionality (requirement 3) will be dealt with in

greater detail in Section 3 below. Requirements 4–6 are numerical restrictions which are

clearly fulfilled.

In contrast, it is harder to fit the Power Compromise within the framework of require-

ments 1 and 2. Requirement 1 calls for a direct representation of citizens. At the stage of

proportional allocation, the Power Compromise allocates the remaining seats in a manner

proportional to “population units” which are a power of the population figures. That is,

direct population figures are replaced by transformed quantities. While the invocation of a

transformation signals a deviation from the principle of direct representation, it may be

justified by the principle of degressive representation.

There is a tension between the principles of direct representation (requirement 1) and of

degressive representation (requirement 3), each of which is stipulated by primary Union

law. Requirement 1 supports an allocation proportional to population, whereas require-

ment 3 favours an allocation giving some priority to smaller states. The Cambridge

Compromise may be viewed as prioritizing direct representation over degressivity. In

contrast, the Power Compromise allows greater degressivity, but at some cost to direct

representation.

The two methods yield seat allocations that become increasingly identical as the power

parameter becomes closer to unity. They coincide when the power equals unity, and this

could occur in the future. For instance, if in Table 2 the German population were to decline

by five million to 77 064 489 (with other populations unchanged), the Power Compromise

yields power 1 and is hence identical to the Cambridge Compromise. This possibility of

future coincidence of the two methods mitigates the marginal disregard by the Power

Compromise of the principle of direct representation.

Assessment by secondary Union law

The extended deliberations of the EP on its composition have led to detailed specifications

that have found their way into Art. 1 of the 2013 European Council Decision mentioned

above:

7. Any more populous Member State shall be allocated at least as many seats as any

less populous Member State.

8. The least populous Member State shall be allocated 6 seats.

9. The most populous Member State shall be allocated 96 seats.

10. The principle of degressive proportionality shall require decreasing representation

ratios when passing from a more populous Member State to a less populous Member

State, where the representation ratio of a Member State is defined to be the ratio of

its population figure relative to its number of seats before rounding.

These requirements are satisfied by the Cambridge Compromise as well as by the Power

Compromise. Tables 1–7 include columns labelled “Repr. Ratio” in witness of degressive

proportionality (requirement 10).

Requirement 9 insists on allocations that achieve the maximum of 96 seats. The

requirement can be met with the current data, but it has the potential to breed conflict. For

instance, if in Table 1 the German population were to be seven million fewer, namely

75 064 489 (with other population figures unchanged), the Cambridge Compromise would

allocate 94 seats to Germany. A forced allocation of 96 seats would violate degressive

proportionality (requirement 3). Council has reasoned that requirements 8 and 9 reflect as

closely as possible the spectrum of populations-sizes of Member States, but this reasoning

is invalid in general.

The Cambridge Compromise results in an increased bunching of Member States near the

maximum of 96 seats (as permitted by requirement 9). While this does not threaten

degressive proportionality, it disadvantages citizens of any capped Member State relative to

The Composition of the European Parliament

9

those of other large States. In contrast, the seat allocation of the Power Compromise is

smoother across its entire range, and in particular at the upper end.

2. FURTHER PROPOSALS

In the literature one can find other proposals on how to determine the composition of the

EP. The topic received renewed attention during the 2003 Convention on the Future of

Europe. Since then the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and the 2013 European Council

decision decreed further details. The parts that are relevant for the composition of the EP

are enunciated in requirements 1–10 above. Of course past literature could not anticipate

these later requirements. Therefore one has to be careful when relating past sample

allocations with current settings.

Some authors proposed to refer the allocation not only to population figures, but also to

gross domestic product.

7

We believe that this reference base can no longer be upheld in

view of requirements 1–2. The Members of the EP represent human beings, not economic

performance.

Other approaches make use of adjusted population units as does the Power Compromise,

but in a different fashion. Rather than raising a population figure N to a power c (in

Table 2: N

c

= N

0.93

) they advocate other transformations. The parabolic method subtracts a

multiple of the squared population: N – cN

2

; the hyperbolic method subtracts a multiple of

the inverse population N – c/N.

8

The coefficient c is contingent on the type of transforma-

tion chosen and must be calculated from the given population figures.

The challenge is not mathematical multitude, but constitutional adequacy. The

more sophisticated the adjustment function, the harder is the proof of its closeness to the

principles of primary and secondary Union law, and the more opaque is the method.

Moreover the Cambridge Compromise and the Power Compromise yield seat allocations

which for many data sets sandwich the allocations of other methods. For this reason we

restrict our briefing to these two methods which can be firmly justified by the legal

principles of the Union.

3. DEGRESSIVE PROPORTIONALITY

The oxymoron of “degressive proportionality” has a long tradition in the debates of

the EP. One may have degressive representation, proportional representation, or

progressive representation just as one may have degressive taxation, proportional taxation,

or progressive taxation. “Degressive proportionality”, however, is a paradoxical concept.

The notion is presented as a manifestation of solidarity in a 2007 text adopted by the EP:

9

 The more populous States agree to be under-represented in order to allow the

less populous States to be represented better.

The 2007 resolution included an attempted specification of degressive proportionality, which

has since been recognized as a potential contradiction. Meanwhile the abstract principle of

degressive proportionality (requirement 3) has been given a concrete specification capable

of practical implementation (requirement 10).

The implementation of degressive proportionality is challenging because the meanings of

“citizens” in requirements 2 and 3 differ significantly even though both requirements appear

7

C. Bertini / G. Gambarelli / I. Stach: Apportionment strategies for the European Parliament. Homo Oeconomicus

22, 2005, pp. 589-604.

8

See, for example, V. Ramírez / A. Palomares / M.L. Márquez: Degressively proportional methods for the allotment

of the European Parliament Seats amongst the EU Member States. In: B. Simeone / F. Pukelsheim (Editors):

Mathematics and Democracy – Recent Advances in Voting Systems and Collective Choice. Berlin, 2006, pp. 205–

220. Or W. Słomczyński / K. Życzkowski: Mathematical aspects of degressive proportionality. Mathematical Social

Sciences 63, 2012, pp. 94-101. Note that the latter authors introduce in their equation (10) a “base + power”

allocation method which is close to, but not identical with the Power Compromise of the present briefing.

9

OJ C 227 E, 4.9.2008, pp. 132-138, no. 5 (http://www.uni-augsburg.de/bazi/OJ/2008C227Ep132.pdf).

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

10

in the same section of Art. 14 TEU. Reference to “Union citizens” (requirement 2) appears

to place all citizens on an equal footing. However, the principle of degressive

proportionality (requirement 3) discriminates the “citizens” by Member States. The citizens

of more populous Member States agree to be under-represented in order to allow the

citizens of less populous Member States to be represented better.

The Cambridge Compromise achieves degressive proportionality without distorting the

meaning of “citizens” beyond the minimum. It does so in each of its two stages. The first

stage of assigning base seats treats all Member States alike. This is extremely degressive

since it neglects population figures entirely. The second stage of proportional allocation of

the remaining seats embodies a mild form of degressivity through the use of upward round-

ing. Upward rounding is known to introduce a slight bias in favour of the less populous

Member States.

10

This type of bias reinforces the effect of degressive proportionality.

In contrast the Power Compromise achieves degressive proportionality by interpreting the

term “citizens” in a rather broad sense. The method replaces lucent population figures –

which count concrete citizens – by arcane population units – which measure abstract units.

In Table 2, Malta’s population of 434 403 citizens is transformed to 175 082 population

units. Does this mean that only forty percent of the citizenry is accounted for?

11

Or forty

percent of each citizen? Neither interpretation seems profitable; the interim power-

adjustments remain obscure. Their justification lies in the final result which thereby

achieves a higher degree of degressivity.

4. POPULATION CRITERION

How does one determine the number of citizens in a Member State? Whom does one count?

These questions are fundamental to requirements 1–3. They demand quick practical

answers, while also inviting more principled reflections.

Available population figures are those decreed annually by Council Decision for the qualified

majority voting (QMV) rule in the Council of Ministers. The figures for the calendar year

2017 provide the input data for our tables.

12

The corresponding columns are labelled

“QMV2017”.

Since the Council and the EP are constitutional organs of the European Union with joint

governance responsibility, we are compelled to the recommendation that the two institu-

tions employ the same population data.

We return to the questions above. Presumably everybody would endorse the aim that

 Every individual who qualifies as a “citizen” in the sense of requirements 1–3 shall

be counted at least once and at most once. That is, he or she shall be counted

exactly once.

This modest aim is challenging to achieve, considering that the data are gathered by a host

of domestic statistical offices before being communicated to Eurostat. To this end it seems

efficient and appropriate to continue to base all population figures on the internationally

(UN) approved notion of “total resident population”.

5. INTER-INSTITUTIONAL BALANCE

Population figures feature not only in the seat allocation of the EP, but also in the qualified

majority voting rule of the Council. A group of Member States constitutes a qualified

majority provided the group consists of at least 55 percent of all Member States (that is, at

10

See Chap. 7 in Pukelsheim, note 4. – The counterpart of the divisor method with upward rounding is the divisor

method with downward rounding. The latter is also known as the D’Hondt method. The D’Hondt method is biased

in favour of stronger parties at the expense of weaker parties, which explains much of its widespread usage.

11

175 082 is 40.3 percent of 434 403.

12

OJ L 348, 12.12.2016, pp. 27–29 (www.uni-augsburg.de/bazi/OJ/2016L348p27.pdf). See www.uni-augsburg.de/

bazi/literature.html#QMV-Pop for links to the QMV population figures prior to 2017.

The Composition of the European Parliament

11

least 16 Member States out of 28) and the Member States in the group represent at least

65 percent of the Union’s population. This decision rule is known as the double-majority

voting rule.

There is an established mathematical framework for the evaluation of fairness within a

qualified majority voting system. It focuses on two quantities: the decision power of a

Member State, and the indirect decision power of a Union citizen.

13

The indirect

decision power of a Union citizen is determined from the decision power of his or her

Member State by dividing the latter by the square root of the Member State’s population

figure. It transpires that the double-majority voting rule leads to an uneven distribution of

the indirect decision powers of the Union citizens. Citizens from middle-sized Member

States have slightly less power than citizens from Member States that are smaller (due to

the 55 percent clause) or larger (due to the 65 percent clause).

14

The Jagiellonian Compromise is a qualified majority voting rule that awards all Union

citizens an equal indirect decision power. It assigns to each Member State a voting weight

that is defined to be the square root of its population figure. Furthermore it introduces a

quota. The Jagiellonian quota is defined to be the average of the square root of the popu-

lation total and the sum of the voting weights.

15

According to the Jagiellonian Compromise

a group of Member States qualifies as a majority provided the sum of their voting weights

meets or exceeds the quota.

In terms of conceptual analysis the Jagiellonian Compromise is unique in its transparency.

It turns out that the decision power of a Member State is practically the same as its

normalized voting weight, that is, its voting weight divided by the voting weight total.

16

As

a consequence the indirect decision power of every citizen attains the same value. Numeri-

cally this cannot be but a tiny quantity in a Union of half a billion of citizens. The principal

conclusion is conceptual:

 The Jagiellonian Compromise awards to all Union citizens the same and equal

power to participate, indirectly via their governments, in Council’s decisions.

Table 8 illustrates the application of the Jagiellonian Compromise to the current Council,

Table 9 to a Council without UK.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

We believe that the Union’s institutions will be served best by the adoption of the Cam-

bridge Compromise for the composition of the EP, and the Jagiellonian Compromise for the

qualified majority voting rule in the Council. These are two independent recommendations.

There is added strength in the above recommendations when viewed as a pair. The Cam-

bridge Compromise would transfer some of the representative weight from middle-sized

Member States to smaller and larger Member States. The Jagiellonian Compromise would

transfer some of the decision power from smaller and larger Member States to middle-sized

13

In repeated decision-making systems the term “a priori decision power” denotes the probability that the partici-

pant’s vote is critical for adopting an act. For large populations the indirect decision power of a citizen behaves

proportionally to the quotient of the decision power of his or her Member State and the square root of the Member

State’s population figure. See, for example, equation (8) in D. Leech / H. Aziz: The double majority voting rule of

the EU Reform Treaty as a democratic ideal for an enlarging Union: An appraisal using voting power analysis. In:

M. Cichocki / K. Życzkowski (Editors): Institutional Design and Voting Power in the European Union. London, 2010,

pp. 59–73. For the double-majority voting rule, the decision powers of the Member States were kindly provided by

Dan Felsenthal (Jerusalem) and Dennis Leech (London).

14

See also Figure 14.1 in F. Pukelsheim: Putting citizens first: Representation and power in the European Union. In

Cichocki / Życzkowski, note 13, pp. 235–253 (www.uni-augsburg.de/pukelsheim/2010a.pdf).

15

W. Słomczyński / K. Życzkowski: Penrose voting system and optimal quota. Acta Physica Polonica B 37, 2006,

pp. 3133–3143 (chaos.if.uj.edu.pl/~karol/pdf/SZapp06.pdf).

16

For the Jagiellonian Compromise, the Member States’ decision powers were calculated using the program ipgenf on

the website Computer Algorithms for Voting Power Analysis of Dennis Leech and Richard Leech (homepages.

warwick.ac.uk/~ecaae/). However, this specific decision rule makes computers superfluous since a Member State’s

decision power is practically equal to the normalized voting weight (=voting weight / total of all voting weights).

Sample calculation in Table 8 for Austria: 2 952 / 99 012 = 2.98 percent.

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

12

Member States. The transfer directions have a balancing effect, and thus the pair is in

equilibrium. Each of these transfers is soundly rooted in the constitutional directive to put

citizens first.

If the full Cambridge Compromise is viewed as being too insensitive to the current composi-

tion of the EP, the Power Compromise may be considered as an interim measure. If the

latter were to be adopted for the 2019 allocation, our recommendation of the Jagiellonian

Compromise would still stand.

We recommend that the adopted allocation method be firmly rooted in primary and second-

ary Union law, and that such consideration should receive prominent emphasis. Neither the

Cambridge Compromise nor the Power Compromise requires a change to primary Union law.

Moreover both methods are compatible with the establishment of a joint constituency, as

supported by the EP in a 2015 vote.

17

7. SEAT ALLOCATION TABLES FOR THE 2019 EP

Seven tables are presented to illustrate how the Cambridge Compromise (CC) and the

Power Compromise (PC) apply to various scenarios.

Table 1 (CC-28-751) and Table 2 (PC-28-751) deal with the current Union of 28 Member

States – that is, including the UK – and maintain the current EP size of 751 seats.

Table 3 (CC-27-751) and Table 4 (PC-27-751) deal with a Union of 27 Member States – that

is, without the UK – and an EP of continuing size of 751 seats.

Table 5 (CC-27-678) and Table 6 (PC-27-678) are based on the assumption that, upon

Brexit, the 73 UK seats are left vacant. This option reduces the EP size to 678 seats.

All tables include a final column exhibiting the differences between the proposed seat

allocations and the 2014 status quo seats. These differences are sometimes appreciable.

We emphasize that the 2014 allocation is a patchwork without systematic rationale, and

that it fails to satisfy the principle of degressive proportionality. It is a challenging

undertaking to achieve a progression towards a representative equilibrium among Union

citizens. Once a start is made and the inherited unevenness is reduced, future re-

allocations are solely reflective of natural population dynamics.

Of the six tables, only Table 4 (PC-27-751) does not imply any reduction in the number of

seats of a Member State assigned to it in 2014. That is, no Member State has to relinquish

any of its current seats. We note that a no-loss situation emerges also with fewer seats.

The smallest EP size to achieve this effect, with the Power Compromise and with the 2017

population figures, is 723 seats.

Table 7 (PC-27-723) displays the allocation of 723 EP seats between the 27 Member States

(without UK) that emerges when using the Power Compromise.

17

European Parliament resolution of 11 November 2015 on the reform of the electoral law of the European Union

(2015/2035(INL)) (www.uni-augsburg.de/bazi/OJ/20xxCyyEpzz.pdf).

.

The Composition of the European Parliament

13

Table 1: Cambridge Compromise, including UK

CC-28-751

QMV2017

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

5+97.003

96

854 838

96

0

France

66 661 621

5+78.8

84

795 520

74

10

United Kingdom

65 341 183

5+77.2

83

794 562

73

10

Italy

61 302 519

5+72.5

78

791 392

73

5

Spain

46 438 422

5+54.9

60

775 373

54

6

Poland

37 967 209

5+44.9

50

761 194

51

-1

Romania

19 759 968

5+23.4

29

696 830

32

-3

The Netherlands

17 235 349

5+20.4

26

679 286

26

0

Belgium

11 289 853

5+13.3

19

615 419

21

-2

Greece

10 793 526

5+12.8

18

607 802

21

-3

Czech Republic

10 445 783

5+12.3

18

602 157

21

-3

Portugal

10 341 330

5+12.2

18

600 410

21

-3

Sweden

9 998 000

5+11.8

17

594 483

21

-4

Hungary

9 830 485

5+11.6

17

591 487

20

-3

Austria

8 711 500

5+10.3

16

569 480

18

-2

Bulgaria

7 153 784

5+8.5

14

531 642

17

-3

Denmark

5 700 917

5+6.7

12

485 653

13

-1

Finland

5 465 408

5+6.5

12

476 899

13

-1

Slovakia

5 407 910

5+6.4

12

474 698

13

-1

Ireland

4 664 156

5+5.5

11

443 648

11

0

Croatia

4 190 669

5+4.95

10

421 024

11

-1

Lithuania

2 888 558

5+3.4

9

343 289

11

-2

Slovenia

2 064 188

5+2.4

8

277 447

8

0

Latvia

1 968 957

5+2.3

8

268 713

8

0

Estonia

1 315 944

5+1.6

7

200 739

6

1

Cyprus

848 319

5+1.003

7

141 322

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

5+0.7

6

101 432

6

0

Malta

434 403

5+0.5

6

78 789

6

0

Sum (Divisor)

510 860 699

(846 000)

751

–

751

±33

Notes:

Cambridge Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 846 000 citizens or part thereof, with a

maximum cap of 96 seats.

Allocation Keys:

There are two allocation keys: the number of base sets (5) and the divisor (846 000). They are determined so

that so the least populous Member state is allocated 6 seats and the size of the EP is 751 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Quotient = Base seats+(QMV2017/Divisor) = 5+0.5 = 5.5, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (5 + 434 403 / 846 000) = 78 789

Maximum cap active only for Germany:

Quotient for Germany 5+97.003 = 102.003 is discarded and capped at 96 seats.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. Altogether 33 seats are transferred

between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

14

Table 2: Power Compromise, including UK

Notes:

Power Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 254 500 adjusted population units or part

thereof, where the adjusted units are obtained by raising the population figures to the power 0.93.

Allocation Keys:

There are three allocation keys: the number of base seats (5), the power (0.93), and the divisor (254 500).

They are determined so that the least populous Member State is allocated 6 seats, the most populous Member

State is allocated just 96 seats, and the size of the EP is 751 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Adjusted population units = 434 403

0.93

= 175 082

Quotient = Base seats+(Adjusted/Divisor) = 5+0.7 = 5.7, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (5 + 434 403

0.93

/ 254 500) = 76 373

Maximum cap is automatic since it is built into determination of power 0.93.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. Altogether 21 seats are transferred

between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

PC-28-751

QMV2017

Adjusted

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

22 917 350

5+90.05

96

863 396

96

0

France

66 661 621

18 888 808

5+74.2

80

841 482

74

6

United Kingdom

65 341 183

18 540 605

5+72.9

78

839 310

73

5

Italy

61 302 519

17 472 492

5+68.7

74

832 302

73

1

Spain

46 438 422

13 495 719

5+53.03

59

800 271

54

5

Poland

37 967 209

11 190 515

5+43.97

49

775 306

51

-2

Romania

19 759 968

6 096 509

5+23.95

29

682 441

32

-3

The Netherlands

17 235 349

5 368 719

5+21.1

27

660 481

26

1

Belgium

11 289 853

3 622 431

5+14.2

20

586 988

21

-1

Greece

10 793 526

3 474 097

5+13.7

19

578 720

21

-2

Czech Republic

10 445 783

3 369 885

5+13.2

19

572 648

21

-2

Portugal

10 341 330

3 338 536

5+13.1

19

570 776

21

-2

Sweden

9 998 000

3 235 335

5+12.7

18

564 460

21

-3

Hungary

9 830 485

3 184 892

5+12.5

18

561 283

20

-2

Austria

8 711 500

2 846 338

5+11.2

17

538 277

18

-1

Bulgaria

7 153 784

2 369 836

5+9.3

15

499 854

17

-2

Denmark

5 700 917

1 918 795

5+7.5

13

454 638

13

0

Finland

5 465 408

1 844 969

5+7.2

13

446 178

13

0

Slovakia

5 407 910

1 826 911

5+7.2

13

444 056

13

0

Ireland

4 664 156

1 592 058

5+6.3

12

414 384

11

1

Croatia

4 190 669

1 441 198

5+5.7

11

393 016

11

0

Lithuania

2 888 558

1 019 608

5+4.01

10

320 726

11

-1

Slovenia

2 064 188

745 962

5+2.9

8

260 265

8

0

Latvia

1 968 957

713 904

5+2.8

8

252 265

8

0

Estonia

1 315 944

490 784

5+1.9

7

189 934

6

1

Cyprus

848 319

326 257

5+1.3

7

135 041

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

227 702

5+0.9

6

97 757

6

0

Malta

434 403

175 082

5+0.7

6

76 373

6

0

Sum (Keys)

510 860 699

(0.93)

(254 500)

751

–

751

±21

The Composition of the European Parliament

15

Table 3: Cambridge Compromise, without UK and with 751 EP seats

Notes:

Cambridge Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 703 400 citizens or part thereof, with a

maximum cap of 96 seats.

Allocation Keys:

There are two allocation keys: the number of base sets (5) and the divisor (703 400). They are determined so

that so the least populous Member state is allocated 6 seats and the size of the EP is 751 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Quotient = Base seats+(QMV2017/Divisor) = 5+0.6 = 5.6, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (5 + 434 403 / 703 400) = 77 329

Maximum cap active for Germany and France:

Quotient for Germany 5+116.7 = 121.7 is discarded and capped at 96 seats.

Quotient for France 5+94.8 =99.8 is discarded and capped at 96 seats.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. In addition to the reallocation of 73

former UK seats, 6 seats are transferred between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

CC-27-751

QMV2017

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

5+116.7

96

854 838

96

0

France

66 661 621

5+94.8

96

694 392

74

22

Italy

61 302 519

5+87.2

93

665 235

73

20

Spain

46 438 422

5+66.02

72

653 879

54

18

Poland

37 967 209

5+53.98

59

643 766

51

8

Romania

19 759 968

5+28.1

34

597 121

32

2

The Netherlands

17 235 349

5+24.5

30

584 191

26

4

Belgium

11 289 853

5+16.1

22

536 325

21

1

Greece

10 793 526

5+15.3

21

530 530

21

0

Czech Republic

10 445 783

5+14.9

20

526 225

21

-1

Portugal

10 341 330

5+14.7

20

524 889

21

-1

Sweden

9 998 000

5+14.2

20

520 355

21

-1

Hungary

9 830 485

5+13.98

19

518 057

20

-1

Austria

8 711 500

5+12.4

18

501 097

18

0

Bulgaria

7 153 784

5+10.2

16

471 565

17

-1

Denmark

5 700 917

5+8.1

14

435 025

13

1

Finland

5 465 408

5+7.8

13

427 989

13

0

Slovakia

5 407 910

5+7.7

13

426 214

13

0

Ireland

4 664 156

5+6.6

12

401 015

11

1

Croatia

4 190 669

5+5.96

11

382 439

11

0

Lithuania

2 888 558

5+4.1

10

317 195

11

-1

Slovenia

2 064 188

5+2.9

8

260 151

8

0

Latvia

1 968 957

5+2.8

8

252 456

8

0

Estonia

1 315 944

5+1.9

7

191 526

6

1

Cyprus

848 319

5+1.2

7

136 693

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

5+0.8

6

99 025

6

0

Malta

434 403

5+0.6

6

77 329

6

0

Sum (Divisor)

445 519 516

(703 400)

751

–

678

79-6

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

16

Table 4: Power Compromise, without UK and with 751 EP seats

Notes:

Power Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 4 base seats, plus one seat per 14 360 adjusted population units or part

thereof, where the adjusted units are obtained by raising the population figures to the power 0.773.

Allocation Keys:

There are three allocation keys: the number of base seats (4), the power (0.773), and the divisor (14 360).

They are determined so that the least populous Member State is allocated 6 seats, the most populous Member

State is allocated just 96 seats, and the size of the EP is 751 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Adjusted population units = 434 403

0.773

= 22 808

Quotient = Base seats+(Adjusted/Divisor) = 4+1.6 = 5.6, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (4 + 434 403

0.773

/ 14 360) = 65 880

Maximum cap is automatic since it is built into determination of power 0.773.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. With the reallocation of 73 former UK

seats no Member State has to relinquish any of its 2014 seats.

PC-27-751

QMV2017

Adjusted

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

1 311 119

4+91.3

96

849 331

96

0

France

66 661 621

1 116 493

4+77.8

82

802 940

74

8

Italy

61 302 519

1 046 455

4+72.9

77

784 646

73

4

Spain

46 438 422

844 299

4+58.8

63

725 593

54

9

Poland

37 967 209

722 575

4+50.3

55

684 163

51

4

Romania

19 759 968

436 157

4+30.4

35

556 946

32

3

The Netherlands

17 235 349

392 421

4+27.3

32

531 580

26

6

Belgium

11 289 853

282 962

4+19.7

24

455 719

21

3

Greece

10 793 526

273 297

4+19.03

24

447 895

21

3

Czech Republic

10 445 783

266 466

4+18.6

23

442 225

21

2

Portugal

10 341 330

264 404

4+18.4

23

440 491

21

2

Sweden

9 998 000

257 592

4+17.9

22

434 679

21

1

Hungary

9 830 485

254 250

4+17.7

22

431 781

20

2

Austria

8 711 500

231 575

4+16.1

21

411 255

18

3

Bulgaria

7 153 784

198 864

4+13.8

18

378 570

17

1

Denmark

5 700 917

166 857

4+11.6

16

342 188

13

3

Finland

5 465 408

161 504

4+11.2

16

335 588

13

3

Slovakia

5 407 910

160 189

4+11.2

16

333 942

13

3

Ireland

4 664 156

142 877

4+9.9

14

311 267

11

3

Croatia

4 190 669

131 530

4+9.2

14

295 295

11

3

Lithuania

2 888 558

98 652

4+6.9

11

242 860

11

0

Slovenia

2 064 188

76 085

4+5.3

10

200 078

8

2

Latvia

1 968 957

73 358

4+5.1

10

194 440

8

2

Estonia

1 315 944

53 724

4+3.7

8

150 319

6

2

Cyprus

848 319

38 263

4+2.7

7

110 547

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

28 376

4+1.98

6

82 522

6

0

Malta

434 403

22 808

4+1.6

6

65 880

6

0

Sum (Keys)

445 519 516

(0.773)

(14 360)

751

–

678

73-0

The Composition of the European Parliament

17

Table 5: Cambridge Compromise, without UK and with 678 EP seats

Notes:

Cambridge Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 827 000 citizens or part thereof, with a

maximum cap of 96 seats.

Allocation Keys:

There are two allocation keys: the number of base sets (5) and the divisor (827 000). They are determined so

that so the least populous Member state is allocated 6 seats and the size of the EP is 678 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Quotient = Base seats + (QMV2017/Divisor) = 5+0.5 = 5.5, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (5 + 434 403 / 827 000) = 78 621

Maximum cap active only for Germany:

Quotient for Germany 5+99.2 = 104.2 is discarded and capped at 96 seats.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. Altogether 29 seats are transferred

between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

CC-27-678

QMV2017

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

5+99.2

96

854 838

96

0

France

66 661 621

5+80.6

86

778 698

74

12

Italy

61 302 519

5+74.1

80

774 742

73

7

Spain

46 438 422

5+56.2

62

759 383

54

8

Poland

37 967 209

5+45.9

51

745 778

51

0

Romania

19 759 968

5+23.9

29

683 888

32

-3

The Netherlands

17 235 349

5+20.8

26

666 982

26

0

Belgium

11 289 853

5+13.7

19

605 303

21

-2

Greece

10 793 526

5+13.1

19

597 932

21

-2

Czech Republic

10 445 783

5+12.6

18

592 469

21

-3

Portugal

10 341 330

5+12.5

18

590 777

21

-3

Sweden

9 998 000

5+12.1

18

585 038

21

-3

Hungary

9 830 485

5+11.9

17

582 136

20

-3

Austria

8 711 500

5+10.5

16

560 807

18

-2

Bulgaria

7 153 784

5+8.7

14

524 076

17

-3

Denmark

5 700 917

5+6.9

12

479 331

13

-1

Finland

5 465 408

5+6.6

12

470 802

13

-1

Slovakia

5 407 910

5+6.5

12

468 656

13

-1

Ireland

4 664 156

5+5.6

11

438 367

11

0

Croatia

4 190 669

5+5.1

11

416 265

11

0

Lithuania

2 888 558

5+3.5

9

340 118

11

-2

Slovenia

2 064 188

5+2.5

8

275 372

8

0

Latvia

1 968 957

5+2.4

8

266 766

8

0

Estonia

1 315 944

5+1.6

7

199 651

6

1

Cyprus

848 319

5+1.03

7

140 782

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

5+0.7

6

101 153

6

0

Malta

434 403

5+0.5

6

78 621

6

0

Sum (Divisor)

445 519 516

(827 000)

678

–

678

±29

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

18

Table 6: Power Compromise, without UK and with 678 EP seats

Notes:

Power Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 5 base seats, plus one seat per 211 700 adjusted population units or part

thereof, where the adjusted units are obtained by raising the population figures to the power 0.92.

Allocation Keys:

There are three allocation keys: the number of base seats (5), the power (0.92), and the divisor (211 700).

They are determined so that the least populous Member state is allocated 6 seats, the most populous Member

State is allocated just 96 seats, and the size of the EP is 678 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Adjusted population units = 434 403

0.92

= 153 766

Quotient = Base seats+(Adjusted/Divisor) = 5+0.7 = 5.7, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (5 + 434 403

0.92

/ 211 700)= 75 860

Maximum cap is automatic since it is built into determination of power 0.92.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. Altogether 18 seats are transferred

between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

PC-27-678

QMV2017

Adjusted

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

19 099 537

5+90.2

96

861 842

96

0

France

66 661 621

15 774 870

5+74.5

80

838 351

74

6

Italy

61 302 519

14 604 277

5+68.99

74

828 572

73

1

Spain

46 438 422

11 311 684

5+53.4

59

794 735

54

5

Poland

37 967 209

9 398 444

5+44.4

50

768 643

51

-1

Romania

19 759 968

5 153 750

5+24.3

30

673 377

32

-2

The

Netherlands

17 235 349

4 544 713

5+21.5

27

651 184

26

1

Belgium

11 289 853

3 079 450

5+14.5

20

577 596

21

-1

Greece

10 793 526

2 954 679

5+13.96

19

569 371

21

-2

Czech

Republic

10 445 783

2 866 987

5+13.5

19

563 337

21

-2

Portugal

10 341 330

2 840 601

5+13.4

19

561 478

21

-2

Sweden

9 998 000

2 753 722

5+13.01

19

555 208

21

-2

Hungary

9 830 485

2 711 246

5+12.8

18

552 057

20

-2

Austria

8 711 500

2 425 970

5+11.5

17

529 270

18

-1

Bulgaria

7 153 784

2 023 825

5+9.6

15

491 336

17

-2

Denmark

5 700 917

1 642 363

5+7.8

13

446 851

13

0

Finland

5 465 408

1 579 839

5+7.5

13

438 544

13

0

Slovakia

5 407 910

1 564 542

5+7.4

13

436 461

13

0

Ireland

4 664 156

1 365 436

5+6.4

12

407 355

11

1

Croatia

4 190 669

1 237 373

5+5.8

11

386 417

11

0

Lithuania

2 888 558

878 672

5+4.2

10

315 670

11

-1

Slovenia

2 064 188

645 014

5+3.05

9

256 522

8

1

Latvia

1 968 957

617 586

5+2.9

8

248 691

8

0

Estonia

1 315 944

426 283

5+2.01

8

187 627

6

2

Cyprus

848 319

284 626

5+1.3

7

133 710

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

199 417

5+0.9

6

96 979

6

0

Malta

434 403

153 766

5+0.7

6

75 860

6

0

Sum (Keys)

445 519 516

(0.92)

(211 700)

678

–

678

±18

The Composition of the European Parliament

19

Table 7: Power Compromise, without UK and with 723 EP seats

PC-27-723

QMV2017

Adjusted

Quotient

Seats

Repr.Ratio

2014

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

2 717 742

4+91.2

96

862 305

96

0

France

66 661 621

2 295 150

4+76.99

81

823 058

74

7

Italy

61 302 519

2 143 976

4+71.9

76

807 448

73

3

Spain

46 438 422

1 710 690

4+57.4

62

756 493

54

8

Poland

37 967 209

1 452 310

4+48.7

53

720 182

51

2

Romania

19 759 968

854 032

4+28.6

33

605 221

32

1

The

Netherlands

17 235 349

764 204

4+25.6

30

581 571

26

4

Belgium

11 289 853

541 796

4+18.2

23

509 126

21

2

Greece

10 793 526

522 350

4+17.5

22

501 496

21

1

Czech

Republic

10 445 783

508 627

4+17.1

22

495 947

21

1

Portugal

10 341 330

504 488

4+16.9

21

494 246

21

0

Sweden

9 998 000

490 828

4+16.5

21

488 536

21

0

Hungary

9 830 485

484 132

4+16.2

21

485 682

20

1

Austria

8 711 500

438 829

4+14.7

19

465 336

18

1

Bulgaria

7 153 784

373 885

4+12.5

17

432 455

17

0

Denmark

5 700 917

310 873

4+10.4

15

395 116

13

2

Finland

5 465 408

300 391

4+10.1

15

388 255

13

2

Slovakia

5 407 910

297 819

4+9.99

14

386 539

13

1

Ireland

4 664 156

264 066

4+8.9

13

362 735

11

2

Croatia

4 190 669

242 056

4+8.1

13

345 766

11

2

Lithuania

2 888 558

178 868

4+6.0003

11

288 848

11

0

Slovenia

2 064 188

136 110

4+4.6

9

240 977

8

1

Latvia

1 968 957

130 983

4+4.4

9

234 569

8

1

Estonia

1 315 944

94 393

4+3.2

8

183 625

6

2

Cyprus

848 319

66 057

4+2.2

7

136 475

6

1

Luxembourg

576 249

48 237

4+1.6

6

102 569

6

0

Malta

434 403

38 336

4+1.3

6

82 180

6

0

Sum (Keys)

445 519 516

(0.813)

(29 810)

723

–

678

45-0

Notes:

Power Compromise:

Every Member State is assigned 4 base seats, plus one seat per 29 810 adjusted population units or part

thereof, where the adjusted units are obtained by raising the population figures to the power 0.813.

Allocation Keys:

There are three allocation keys: the number of base seats (4), the power (0.813), and the divisor (29 810).

They are determined so that the least populous Member state is allocated 6 seats, the most populous Member

State is allocated just 96 seats, and the size of the EP is 723 seats.

Sample calculations for Malta:

Adjusted population units = 434 403

0.813

= 38 336

Quotient = Base seats+(Adjusted/Divisor) = 4+1.3 = 5.3, rounded upwards to 6 seats

Representation Ratio = QMV2017/Quotient = 434 403 / (4 + 434 403

0.813

/ 29 810) = 82 180

Maximum cap is automatic since it is built into determination of power 0.813.

Verification of degressive proportionality:

Representation ratios decrease when passing from more populous to less populous Member States.

Column “Diff.” exhibits deviations of proposed “Seats” from “2014” seats. With the reallocation of 45 of the former

UK seats no Member State has to relinquish any of its 2014 seats.

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

20

Table 8 : Jagiellonian Compromise, including UK

Notes:

Jagiellonian Compromise:

A group of Member States constitutes a qualified majority provided the sum of their voting weights meets or

exceeds the quota 60 807.

System keys:

A Member State’s voting weight is the square root of its population figure, rounded to the nearest whole

number.

The quota 60 807 is the average of the square root of the population total (510 860 699

0.5

= 22 602.2) and the

sum of the voting weights (99 012), rounded upwards.

System merits:

The decision power of a Member State is identical to the percentage voting weight.

The indirect decision powers of all Union citizens are equal.

Column “Diff.” exhibits the deviations of the “Decision Power” of the proposed Jagiellonian Compromise from the

“DM2017” decision power of the double-majority voting rule in 2017. A total of 6.81 percent decision power is

transferred between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

JagCom-28

QMV2017

Voting Weight

Decision Power

DM2017

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

9 059

9.13

10.25

-1.12

France

66 661 621

8 165

8.25

8.44

-0.19

United Kingdom

65 341 183

8 083

8.17

8.29

-0.12

Italy

61 302 519

7 830

7.91

7.86

0.05

Spain

46 438 422

6 815

6.89

6.18

0.71

Poland

37 967 209

6 162

6.23

5.07

1.16

Romania

19 759 968

4 445

4.49

3.75

0.74

The Netherlands

17 235 349

4 152

4.19

3.49

0.70

Belgium

11 289 853

3 360

3.39

2.89

0.50

Greece

10 793 526

3 285

3.32

2.85

0.47

Czech Republic

10 445 783

3 232

3.26

2.81

0.45

Portugal

10 341 330

3 216

3.25

2.80

0.45

Sweden

9 998 000

3 162

3.19

2.77

0.42

Hungary

9 830 485

3 135

3.17

2.75

0.42

Austria

8 711 500

2 952

2.98

2.64

0.34

Bulgaria

7 153 784

2 675

2.70

2.48

0.22

Denmark

5 700 917

2 388

2.41

2.33

0.08

Finland

5 465 408

2 338

2.36

2.31

0.05

Slovakia

5 407 910

2 325

2.35

2.30

0.05

Ireland

4 664 156

2 160

2.18

2.23

-0.05

Croatia

4 190 669

2 047

2.07

2.18

-0.11

Lithuania

2 888 558

1 700

1.72

2.05

-0.33

Slovenia

2 064 188

1 437

1.45

1.97

-0.52

Latvia

1 968 957

1 403

1.42

1.96

-0.54

Estonia

1 315 944

1 147

1.16

1.89

-0.73

Cyprus

848 319

921

0.93

1.84

-0.91

Luxembourg

576 249

759

0.77

1.82

-1.05

Malta

434 403

659

0.66

1.80

-1.14

Sum

510 860 699

99 012

100.00

±6.81

Quota

60 807

61.41

The Composition of the European Parliament

21

Table 9 : Jagiellonian Compromise, without UK

Notes:

Jagiellonian Compromise:

A group of Member States constitutes a qualified majority provided the sum of their voting weights meets or

exceeds the quota 56 019.

System keys:

A Member State’s voting weight is the square root of its population figure, rounded to the nearest whole

number.

The quota 56 019 is the average of the square root of the population total (445 519 516

0.5

= 21 107.3) and the

sum of the voting weights (90 929), rounded upwards.

System merits:

The decision power of a Member State is identical to the percentage voting weight.

The indirect decision powers of all Union citizens are equal.

Column “Diff.” exhibits the deviations of the “Decision Power” of the proposed Jagiellonian Compromise from the

“DM2017” decision power of the double-majority voting rule in 2017. A total of 7.77 percent decision power is

transferred between middle-sized and larger or smaller Member States.

JagCom-27

QMV2017

Voting Weight

Decision Power

DM2017

Diff.

Germany

82 064 489

9 059

9.94

11.98

-2.04

France

66 661 621

8 165

8.98

9.95

-0.97

Italy

61 302 519

7 830

8.62

9.18

-0.56

Spain

46 438 422

6 815

7.51

7.62

-0.11

Poland

37 967 209

6 162

6.79

6.49

0.30

Romania

19 759 968

4 445

4.89

4.00

0.89

The Netherlands

17 235 349

4 152

4.57

3.71

0.86

Belgium

11 289 853

3 360

3.70

3.02

0.68

Greece

10 793 526

3 285

3.61

2.96

0.65

Czech Republic

10 445 783

3 232

3.55

2.92

0.63

Portugal

10 341 330

3 216

3.54

2.91

0.63

Sweden

9 998 000

3 162

3.48

2.87

0.61

Hungary

9 830 485

3 135

3.45

2.85

0.60

Austria

8 711 500

2 952

3.25

2.71

0.54

Bulgaria

7 153 784

2 675

2.94

2.53

0.41

Denmark

5 700 917

2 388

2.62

2.35

0.27

Finland

5 465 408

2 338

2.57

2.33

0.24

Slovakia

5 407 910

2 325

2.56

2.32

0.24

Ireland

4 664 156

2 160

2.37

2.23

0.14

Croatia

4 190 669

2 047

2.25

2.17

0.08

Lithuania

2 888 558

1 700

1.87

2.02

-0.15

Slovenia

2 064 188

1 437

1.58

1.92

-0.34

Latvia

1 968 957

1 403

1.54

1.90

-0.36

Estonia

1 315 944

1 147

1.26

1.83

-0.57

Cyprus

848 319

921

1.01

1.77

-0.76

Luxembourg

576 249

759

0.83

1.74

-0.91

Malta

434 403

659

0.72

1.72

-1.00

Sum

445 519 516

90 929

100.00

±7.77

Quota

56 019

61.61

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

22

The Composition of the European Parliament

THE r-DP METHODS TO ALLOCATE THE EP SEATS TO

MEMBER STATES

Prof. Victoriano RAMÍREZ GONZÁLEZ

KEY FINDINGS

 The concept of degressive proportionality, (henceforth DP), introduced by the

Lamassoure-Severin report, has a very broad meaning. For example, allocating

26 seats for each of the 28 states fulfils the requirements of the Treaty of

Lisbon. Even if the least populous country gets a minimum 6 seats and the

most populous 96 seats, it is possible to set up many different allocations

which can also give a wide range of results for the same state.

 This paper proposes limiting the DP concept because MEPs on some occasions

vote on the basis of national preferences and on other occasions vote on the

basis of ideological affinity. Depending on whether a greater influence of

national preferences or ideology is desired, we can use one from a series of

parametric methods. This paper proposes allocating half of the seats in the

EP in proportion to Member States’ populations (ideological affinity) the

other half in proportion to the square root of their populations (and

national preferences), rounding up with the Adams method and without

minimum or maximum limitations. The minimum and maximum limitations of 6

and 96, respectively, are included later in the formulas.

 The current EP composition contains allocations to some states that contradict

DP, as for example, when comparing the seats allocated to Germany with

those allocated to France, UK or Spain. A new composition of the EP must

reverse this situation, whereby either Germany’s representation will have to

decrease or the other Member States’ increase (or both).

 On the other hand, Hungary has 21 MEPs and Sweden has 20, but Hungary

has declined in population and Sweden has increased and surpassed Hungary,

so these allocations cannot be maintained in the future because they

contradict the Lisbon Treaty.

 Likewise, Lithuania which currently has a population of less than 3 million and

Ireland with more than 4.5 million, both have 11 MEPs. This unbalanced

situation is unreasonable.

 The formula to be adopted should not differ significantly from the current one,

with the exception of the previously noted inconsistencies.

1. INTRODUCTION

From the very beginning of the EP’s existence up until the present, the seat allocation for

each EU Member State has always been determined through negotiations, so that after

every Union enlargement, or when a state’s population changes significantly, new

negotiations are required.

The need for a formula to distribute seats has been frequently raised over the last decades.

For example, some scholars have noted that “there is neither a formula to determine the

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

24

vote weight of each State on the Council of the EU nor a formula to calculate the number of

seats in Parliament”

1

.

The basic concept in degressive proportionality consists of assigning fewer seats to larger

states than their corresponding proportion, in order to assign more seats to smaller

states. Of course a country that is more populous than another cannot have fewer

representatives.

In 2007, the then EP vice-president Jacek Saryusz-Wolski proposed a meeting in order to

develop formulas for allocating EP seats and also to determine the members of the

European Commission. The meeting was organised by Marek A. Cichocki and Karol

Życzkowski in the Natolin European Centre in Warsaw. The contributions presented during

that meeting were published in a book and, though at that time the concept of degressive

proportionality was not rigorously defined, the book contains some papers that propose

degressively proportional distributions which meet the established limitations. This book

also contains other articles that recommend different voting systems for the Council of the

European Union

2

.

Also in 2007, two Members of the European Parliament Alain Lamassoure and Adrian

Severin rigorously defined the term “degressive proportionality” which is included in a

resolution of the EP

3

. Specifically, the meaning adopted was that the ratio between the

population and the number of seats of each Member State must be larger for the more

populous state, when any two states are compared.

However, this definition does not imply a particular method of seat allocation in the EP.

That is why, after the 2009 elections, Andrew Duff, MEP and member of the AFCO

Committee of the EP, tried to obtain a formula to distribute EP seats among EU Member

States. To this end, he promoted a meeting of electoral systems researchers at the

University of Cambridge. The result of this meeting was a Report for the EU called the

Cambridge Compromise (or CamCom)

4

. The Cambridge Compromise agrees on a

somewhat more flexible definition of degressive proportionality (considering the number of

seats before rounding, to obtain the ratio between population and seats). Finally, the Report

provided a simple, transparent and durable formula for the distribution of seats in the EP.

The journal Mathematical Social Science echoed the difficulty of the problem and published

a special issue

5

, in which many researchers presented new proposals for allocating seats in

the EP.

Many other articles have been written, before and after the cited events; however the EP’s

acceptance of a particular method is still pending. The composition of the EP for the period

2014-2019 had to be agreed by negotiation in which MEPs Gualtieri, R. and Trzaskowski, R.

proposed a criterion for seat distribution: "Nobody gains seats and nobody loses more than

one".

6

They also achieved a “pragmatic solution” for the 2014-2019 parliamentary term,

which was finally approved although it does not fully comply with the Lisbon Treaty

provisions.

1

Hosli, MO. and Machover, M (2004) The Nice Treaty and Voting Rules in the Council: A Reply to Moberg,

Journal of Common Market Studies 42(3): 497–521.

2

Słomczyński, W. and Życzkowski K., 2010. Jagiellonian Compromise: an alternative voting system for the

Council of the European Union, in Cichocki MA and Życzkowski K. (eds) (2010) Design and Voting Power in the

European Union. Farnham: Ashgate Publishing Limited, pp. 43-57.

3

Lamassoure A. and Severin A. (2007): A proposal to amend the Treaty provisions concerning the composition of

the European Parliament. Brussels: Draft Explanatory statement, 31 August 2007. Available at:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/ getDoc.do?pubRef= //EP//NONSGML+REPORT+A6-2007-

0351+0+DOC+PDF+V0//EN.

4

Grimmett, G., Laslier, JF, Pukelsheim, F, Ramírez-González, V, Rose, R, Słomczyński, W, Zachariasen, M and

Życzkowski, K. (2011): The allocation between the EU Member States of the seats in the European Parliament –

Cambridge Compromise. European Parliament Studies, PE 432.760.

5

Laslier JF (ed.) (2012) Special Issue around the Cambridge Compromise: Apportionment in Theory and Practice.

Elsevier, (Mathematical Social Science, 63)

6

Gualtieri, R. and Trzaskowski, R. (2013) Report on the composition of the European Parliament with view to the

2014 elections. Committee on Constitutional Affairs (2012/2309(INI))

The Composition of the European Parliament

25

In this briefing and after the introduction, section 2 describes how some assignments in the

current composition of the EP are contrary to the idea of DP and how others are not

reasonable. Section 3 provides arguments for removing constraints (maximum 96 seats and

minimum 6 seats). Section 4 defends and justifies the concept of degressive proportionality

in EP seat distribution. Section 5 proposes a parametric family of methods to obtain the

composition of the EP. These methods are based on a more precise and restrictive definition

of DP than the proposal in the "Cambridge Compromise". All methods belonging to this

parametric family give Malta fewer than six seats. However, as it is necessary to respect the

limits imposed by the Lisbon Treaty

7

, we have made an allocation with the minimum and

maximum requirements

9

, to obtain a method, called 0.5-DPL, which respects all

constraints. The results of the proposed method and those obtained with the "Cambridge

Compromise" method, the parabolic method and the power method, are compared with the

current distribution and we can observe that the 0.5-DPL method gives a closer

allotment to the current distribution. The proposed method is applicable to any other

scenario where there are changes in the states, in their population, in the minimum and

maximum requirements or in the size of the EP. Thus, in section 6 we give an example of a

possible composition of the EP after Brexit for which we have proposed an EP with 701

MEPs, maintaining the minimum 6 and maximum 96 for each state. We also include a table

with the allocation of seats following a possible EU enlargement and, finally, in section 7 we

present the main conclusions of this briefing

2. NON-DEGRESSIVITY AND OTHER FORMS OF ILLOGICAL

BEHAVIOUR IN CURRENT EP COMPOSITION

Currently, the population/seat ratio for the five most populous countries is:

Germany: 82064489/96=854838 Italy: 61302519/73=839761

France: 66661621/74=900833 Spain: 46438422/54=859971

UK: 65341183/73=895085

We can see that there is inverse degressivity when comparing Germany with France,

the UK and Spain, since they all have a higher population/seat ratio than Germany

although they are less populated. In particular Spain has almost 35 million fewer

inhabitants than Germany. Thus, this situation has to be reversed either by diminishing the

representation of Germany or by increasing the representation of the other countries (or

both).

Another important example of inverse degressivity occurs when comparing Romania

with The Netherlands. The Netherlands should receive more seats or Romania’s

representation should be decreased.

On the other hand, the population of Hungary has decreased while Sweden’s has increased.

Currently Sweden has a larger population than Hungary, but, in the EP, Hungary has

21 MEPs and Sweden 20. Therefore this situation cannot be maintained.

The new composition of the EP should also lead to another major change in the unjustified

allocation of seats for Lithuania, as Lithuania has a population of less than 2.9 million

and currently has the same number of seats as Ireland whose population exceeds 4.6

million. It would be reasonable for Ireland to have about 3 seats more than Lithuania.

Apart from these considerations, the allocation obtained with the formula that is adopted

should give results close to present day ones for the rest of the Member States. The formula

should work well even if the constraints 6 and 96 were to be replaced by other numbers or

even if they were abolished altogether.

7

Consolidated versions of the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union

(Treaty of Lisbon). Official Journal of the European Union. C306:1-388, 2007. Available at: http://europa.eu/

lisbon_treaty/ full_text/index_en.htm

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

26

3. WHY DOES THE MINIMUM CORRESPOND TO 6 SEATS AND THE

MAXIMUM TO 96?

The Lisbon Treaty stipulates that no state may obtain more than 96 seats or fewer than 6

seats. These maximum and minimum limitations were set in response to a political

agreement. However, no justification of these values was given and, moreover, if they were

justified it would be for a situation similar to that which existed in 2007. Also at that time,

the EP had fewer powers than at present and it is now necessary to question these

limitations. Moreover, the EU may be enlarged by accepting new States while other Member

States may wish to leave the EU. In any event, the population of Member States may

change from one election to the next, more so in some states than in others.

Therefore, the minimum and maximum limitations that the Lisbon Treaty imposes upon

Member States concerning their number of seats in the composition of the EP are not

guaranteed to last. Let us work on the assumption that a very small state, for example

having about 100,000 inhabitants, were to join the EU: how could assigning 6 seats to this

state be justified? If that were to happen, an MEP from this hypothetical small state would

represent fewer than 16,500 inhabitants in the Union, whereas an MEP from Malta would

represent 70,000 and a MEP from one of the most populous countries would represent

about one million. Such differences would be difficult to justify logically.

Moreover, the same goes for the maximum limitation of 96 seats. Let us imagine that

several of the most populated countries in the EU (but not Germany) decide to leave the

EU. In that case, if the size of EP remained as 751, then what purpose would imposing a

limit of 96 seats on Germany serve?

Initially, therefore, the proposed method shall not set maximum or minimum limits. At a

later stage, the formula can include the current limitations (of the Lisbon Treaty) or other

new limitations.

4. WHY MUST THE REPRESENTATION IN THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT NOT BE PROPORTIONAL?

The voting behaviour of MEPs does not always follow the same pattern. Sometimes MEPs

join forces with their parliamentary group, while on other occasions they tend to vote more

in accordance with their nationality. On other times, finally, they follow neither of the

previous two patterns.

When MEPs vote according to their ideology, as in national parliaments, seat allocation

proportional to the people who elect them is justified.

However, when MEPs vote according to their nationality the most reasonable distribution is

obtained in proportion to the square root of states’ population, because in this case a similar

“citizen power” is obtained in proportion to the square root of their inhabitants (some

related works: Barberá

8

, Beisbart

9

, Penrose

10

, Moberg

11

and Cichocki and Życzkowski

12

).

Therefore, a proportional allocation of EP seats among Member States would be

unfair to the citizens of smaller states because their power of vote, when their

MEPs vote en bloc, is much smaller than the power of the citizens of the most

populous countries.

8

Barberá, S. and Jackson, M.O. (2006). “On the Weights of Nations: Assigning Voting Weights in a Heterogeneous

Union.” Journal of Polit. Econ. 114(2): 317 – 339.

9

Beisbart, C. and Bovens, L. (2007). “Welfarist Evaluations of Decision Rules for Boards of Representatives.” Soc.

Choice and Welfare 29: 581 – 608.

10

Penrose, Lionel S. 1946. “The Elementary Statistics of Majority Voting.” J. Royal Statis. Soc. 109:53 – 57.

11

Moberg, A. (2012) EP seats: the politics behind the math. Mathematical Social Scieces, 63, 78-84.

12

Cichocki M. A. and Życzkowski K. (eds) (2010) Design and Voting Power in the European Union. Farnham:

Ashgate Publishing Limited.

The Composition of the European Parliament

27

Moreover, the seat allocation in the EP in proportion to the square root of the

population of the states would give all EU citizens more equal power if all the

representatives of each state were to vote en bloc, but that is not so in many

cases and therefore it would also be unfair.

The proportional allocation according to the number of inhabitants assigns more

representatives to the most populous states than proportional distribution to the square root

of inhabitants, and the opposite occurs with the least populous states.

Thus, the most populous countries are interested in allocations closest to proportional

representation to inhabitants and the least populated countries are interested in an

allocation closest to proportional representation to the square root of inhabitants.

Therefore, there is no justification for a set distribution in the EP in which:

1. The most populous country obtains more seats than it would obtain with a

proportional allocation to its inhabitants.

2. The least populous country receives more seats than it would obtain with a

proportional allocation to the square root of the number of inhabitants.

The perfect method will never exist, but perhaps a method that combines proportional

representation to population with proportional representation to the square root

of the number of inhabitants is one of the most suitable outcomes for determining the

composition of the EP.

The question is: what combination between the two distributions should we use?

Thus, the more influence the distribution in proportion to the square root exercises, the

more degressive it will be.

Therefore, we can define the degree of DP, r, in terms of the proportion of seats

allocated to the states in proportion to the square root of their population. This

definition is clarified in the next section, which also contains the distribution tables

corresponding to different degrees of DP.

5. THE FAMILY OF r-DP METHODS

As discussed above, a part r of the seats in the EP will be distributed in proportion to the

square root of the population of each country and the other part (1-r) in proportion to its

population.

Thus, r is a parameter that can take any value in the interval [0-1]. The corresponding

method is denoted by r-DP and we shall say that this method has a degree of degressivity r.

The parametric r-DP method yields different sets of seat representation for states

in function of their degree of degressivity.

For example, r = 0.6 means to allocate 60% of seats in proportion to the square root of

population and, as (1-r) = 0.4, 40% of seats in proportion to the population.

Specifically, once the degree of degressivity r is fixed, the representation of state i, with

population p

i

would be proportional to its adjusted quota A(p

i

)=q

i

:

11

751*

751*(1 )

( ) (1)

i

ii

nn

ii

rp

A p q

pp





  



Thus, according to the populations shown in Table 1, the adjusted quotas are:

751*

751*(1 )

()

99010 510860699

i

ii

rp

A p q



  

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

28

and if we choose a degree of DP r = 0.6 (for example), then the adjusted quota for France

is

2

751*0.6 66661621 751*0.4 66661621

(66661621) 76.36

99010 510860699

Aq



   

The rounding of fractions will be in accordance with the Adams method (divisors method

with upward rounding

13

). So any Member State receives at least one seat.

Thus we obtain the value of k which verifies

1

751 (2)

n

i

j

kq









Where

x





is the integer number which is greater or equal to x. The value of k is always

somewhat less than 1, because the rounding of the fractions is upward.

And the allotment S

r

is:

 

1 2 28

, , ..., (3)

r

S kq kq kq

     

     

The question now is, what value to choose for r? Maybe it should not be a value either

close to zero or to one.

Degressivity of Sr

Each allotment S

r

is degressively proportional as stated in the Cambridge Compromise

An important result is:

[0,1]r

, the obtained distribution S

r

is degressively proportional as

indicated by the Cambridge Compromise, i.e. the ratios between populations and seats

(before rounding) are decreasing as we move from more populated states to less populated

ones.

1

2

11

751*

751*(1 )

( ) / (4)

i

ii

i

nn

i

ii

rp

q r p

c

pc

p

pp





   



When r is fixed, c

1

and c

2

are constants in (4). So the ratio p

i

/q

i

is decreasing when p

i

decreases.

Some particular allocations obtained through different degrees of DP

Table 1 shows the results for various values of r ranging between 0 and 1. The last column

shows the current allocation. The Adams method has been used for rounding.

13

Pukelsheim, F. Proportional representation. Apportionment methods and their applications (2014), Springer.

The Composition of the European Parliament

29

Table 1: Composition of the EP with different degrees of DP and current

allotment

Country

Population

S

0.=

Pro.

S

0.40

S

0.50

S

0.60

S

1

=PSR

Current

Germany

82064489

119

98

93

88

68

96

France

66661621

97

82

79

76

61

74

United

Kingdom

65341183

95

81

78

74

61

73

Italy

61302519

89

77

74

71

59

73

Spain

46438422

68

61

59

58

51

54

Poland

37967209

55

52

51

50

46

51

Romania

19759968

29

31

32

34

32

The

Netherlands

17235349

25

28

29

31

26

Belgium

11289853

17

20

21

22

26

21

Greece

10793526

16

20

21

25

21

Czech Rep.

10445783

16

19

20

21

25

21

Portugal

10341330

15

19

20

21

24

21

Sweden

9998000

15

19

20

24

20

Hungary

9830485

15

18

19

20

24

21

Austria

8711500

13

17

18

19

23

18

Bulgaria

7153784

11

15

16

17

20

17

Denmark

5700917

9

13

14

18

13

Finland

5465408

8

12

13

14

18

13

Slovakia

5407910

8

12

13

14

18

13

Ireland

4664156

7

11

12

13

17

11

Croatia

4190669

7

10

11

12

16

11

Lithuania

2888558

5

8

9

10

13

11

Slovenia

2064188

3

7

8

11

8

Latvia

1968957

3

6

7

8

11

8

Estonia

1315944

2

5

6

9

6

Cyprus

848319

2

4

5

7

6

Luxembourg

576249

1

3

4

6

Malta

434403

1

3

4

5

6

Total

510860699

751

Source: Figures concerning the population of each Member State in accordance with Council Decision (EU,

Euratom) 2016/2353 of 8 December 2016 amending the Council's Rules of Procedure

(http://eurlex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32016D2353&from=EN)

Remarks 1

a. Obviously the S

0

and S

1

values, for proportional allocation to population and proportional allocation to the

square root of the population (respectively), are disposable, because they are far removed from the results

obtained by negotiations in the past. However, values of r close to 0.5 lead to allocations which are

very similar to the current ones for all countries except those affected by the minimum limitation,

inverse degressivity and Lithuania and Hungary as indicated in section 2.

b. In comparison with the last column, which contains the current allocation of seats, it can be observed that,

when the distribution tables are calculated with the three values r close to 0.5, France, UK, Spain and The

Netherlands are the only countries in each case which receive more seats than their current apportionment.

In part this is quite logical, because the present distribution is contrary to degressive proportionality among

the most populous states. For example France is the country in the EU whose MEPs represent most

inhabitants, and in the case of Spain its MEPs represent more inhabitants than MEPs from Italy or Germany,

even though Germany has almost double the population of Spain. By contrast, there are other countries in

the three distribution tables receiving fewer seats than they actually have in the EP. They are the three least

populated states (Malta, Luxembourg and Cyprus) together with Lithuania and Hungary.

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

30

c. Perhaps the choice r = 0.5 is the one which is the most consistent with current allocation. However, Scully

et al

.

14

states that political and ideological affiliations explain 60 per cent of the variance in the personal

positions of MEPs on EU policy issues and the remaining 40 per cent is explained by national affiliations.

Thus, 0.4 is another important value of r that must be considered.

On the other hand, Dniestrzański

15

introduces a measure of degressivity MD(S) for distribution S, as

1

*

()

*

n

i

n

i

Hp

s

V

MD S

Hp

H

nV











Here,

V

is the total population of the European Union.

If we calculate the measure of degressivity MD(S

r

) for the five previous distributions we obtain the following

results:

r

0

0.40

0.50

0.60

1

MD(S

r

)

0.02

0.21

0.26

0.30

0.50

Therefore the degree of degressivity r established in this paper reproduces the same order as the degree of

degressivity established by Dniestrzański, but the values are different.

Although the values MD(S

r

) in these examples, are approximately r/2, this is not always the case.

In fact, the rate of Dniestrzański is more appropriate for measuring disproportionality than measuring degressive

proportionality, because the formula does not distinguish whether the represented countries are the most or the

least populated ones.

The proposed method

In view of the negotiations that led to the composition of the EP for the 2014-2019 term, we

consider that an appropriate method to distribute EP seats may be the one which has a

degree of degressivity r = 0.50, the 0.5-DP method, (50% of the seats in proportion to the

number of inhabitants and 50% in proportion to the square root of the number of

inhabitants), whose distribution is obtained by applying the expressions (1)-(3) with r = 0.5

and k = 0.982. It is contained in the fifth column of Table 1.

The proposed method with the limitations of 6 and 96

To obtain the allotment with the proposed methods 0.5-DP while respecting the Treaty

limitations of 6 and 96 seats, we must find a value of k such that

1

median(6, ,96) 751 (5)

n

i

j

kq









We call it the 0.5-DPL method. The corresponding allocation is obtained using k = 0.974.

In Table 2, below, column 2 shows the assignments before rounding, column 3 contains the

rounded allotment and column 4the ratio of degressivity. Finally the degressivity for the

current allotment is shown in the last column of Table 2.

14

Scully, R., Hix, S. and Farrel, D. (2012) ‘National or European parlamentarians? Evidence from a New Survey of

the Members of the European Parliament’. Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 670–683.

15

Dniestrzański, P., (2014), “Proposal for measure of degressive proportionality”. Elsevier, Procedia – Social and

Behavioral Sciences 110, 140 – 147

The Composition of the European Parliament

31

Table 2: Degressivity of the proposed and current methods

Source: Own elaboration. From Estonia down to Malta we have used as divisor A(p) the value 6.

In the last column, whenever a quotient appears in bold it is because there is at least one

other quotient further down in the table that has a larger value (contrary to DP after

rounding).

Graphically, the proposed (blue points on the curve) and current (purple) allotments are

shown in the following graph.

Country

A(p)

0.5-DPL

Pop./A(p)

Pop./Current

Germany

92.22

93

889877

854838

France

77.88

78

855953

900833

United Kingdom

76.64

77

852573

895085

Italy

72.81

73

841952

839761

Spain

58.42

59

794906

859971

Poland

49.94

50

760256

744455

Romania

30.57

31

646384

617499

The Netherlands

27.67

28

622889

662898

Belgium

20.49

21

550993

537612

Greece

19.86

20

543481

513977

Czech Republic

19.42

20

537888

497418

Portugal

19.28

20

536376

492444

Sweden

18.84

19

530679

499900

Hungary

18.62

19

527953

468118

Austria

17.14

18

508256

483972

Bulgaria

15.01

16

476919

420811

Denmark

12.90

13

441932

438532

Finland

12.55

13

435491

420416

Slovakia

12.46

13

434022

415993

Ireland

11.32

12

412028

424014

Croatia

10.56

11

396844

380970

Lithuania

8.35

9

345935

262596

Slovenia

6.79

7

304453

258024

Latvia

6.59

7

298780

246120

Estonia

5.18

6

219324

Cyprus

4.01

6

141386

Luxembourg

3.22

6

96042

Malta

2.76

6

72400

751

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

32

2 10

7

4 10

7

6 10

7

8 10

7

20

40

60

80

The curve corresponds to the adjusted quotas. Therefore, the allocations with the 0.5-DPL

method are on the curve, except those affected by the minimum 6.

The points distant from the curve correspond to the current distribution, mainly those that

correspond to Germany, the UK, France and Spain.

6. THE COMPOSITION OF THE EP AFTER BREXIT

Size of the new EP in 2019

The UK’s withdrawal from the EU frees up its 73 seats and makes it easier to adopt a

method which achieves DP, while also reducing EP size from the current size of 751 to 701,

as is shown in this paper: some of the current UK seats can be used to correct the present

inverse DP among the more populous countries to achieve DP. In such a situation, few

countries lose seats and, more importantly, the number of seats that would be lost is

not significant.

In any case, it might be politically prudent to reduce the size of the EP after the withdrawal

of the UK so that any possible future incorporation of new states does not lead to loss of

seats for current Member States.

This would also be useful, if a transnational list is established, which would not require a

reduction in the allocation of Member States’ seats.

A reduction of between 50 and 60 seats may be adequate to achieve both objectives.

Specifically we will simulate results corresponding to a reduction of 50 seats, so that the

EP’s size is 701 seats.

Comparative allotments in 2019

Table 3 shows the results of our proposed method with limitations 6 and 96 in comparison

with other important methods: the Power method (Po), the parabolic method (Pa)

16

and the

Cambridge Compromise method (CC).

16

Ramírez V., Palomares, A. Márquez, M. L. (2006), Degressively proportional methods for the allotment of the

European Parliament seats amongst the EU Member States. Mathematics and Democracy, pp. 205-220. Berlin:

Springer.

The Composition of the European Parliament

33

Table 3: Compositions of EP after Brexit with different methods

Country

S

0.5L

.

Po.

Pa.

CC

Current

Germany

96

France

82

81

83

90

74

Italy

77

76

77

83

73

Spain

62

60

62

65

54

Poland

53

51

53

54

51

Romania

32

31-

32

The Netherlands

29

28

27

26

Belgium

22

21

20-

21

Greece

21

20-

19-

21

Czech Republic

21

20-

19-

21

Portugal

21

20-

19-

21

Sweden

20

19-

18-

20

Hungary

20-

19-

18-

21

Austria

18

17-

18

Bulgaria

16-

15-

17

Denmark

14

13

Finland

14

13

12-

13

Slovakia

13

14

13

12-

13

Ireland

12

13

12

11

Croatia

11

12

11

Lithuania

9-

10-

9-

11

Slovenia

7-

9

8

Latvia

7-

9

8

Estonia

6

8

7

6

Cyprus

6

7

6

Luxembourg

6

7

6

Malta

6

Total

701

678

Remarks 2 :

a. All allotments shown in Table 3, except the one in force (Current), respect the degressive proportionality

as in the Cambridge Compromise Report which has been established (before rounding).

b. The sum of the absolute differences between the seats allocated in the present-day distribution (Current)

and that obtained with each of the other four methods is:

28 28

11

28 28

0.5

11

63 ; 45

37 ; 35

i i i i

ii

i i Li i

ii

CC Cur Pa Cur

Po Cur S Cur



   



In the above differences, 23 seats come from the departure of the UK (701-678 = 23), which allows for the

correction of the inverse degressivity, mainly between Germany vis-a-vis France and Spain. In this way, few

states lose representation with respect to the 2014-2019 term.

Using the 0.5-DPL method only five states lose seats (six seats in total): Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia and

Latvia lose one seat each and Lithuania loses two seats.

Using the Power method only six states lose seats (seven seats in total): Romania, Czech Republic, Portugal,

Bulgaria and Lithuania lose one seat each, and Hungary loses two seats.

Using the Parabolic method only nine states lose seats (eleven seats in total): Romania, Greece, Czech

Republic, Portugal, Sweden, Austria and Lithuania lose one seat each, and Hungary and Bulgaria lose two seats

each.

Using the Cambridge Compromise method twelve states lose seats (twenty seats in total).

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

34

So, in this sense we can say that the distribution S

0.5L

, which has been obtained using the 0.5-DPL method, is the

nearest to the current distribution

In addition, the 0.5-DPL method is the only one, of the four previous methods, which does not need limitations.

On the other hand, the entry into force of the Lisbon voting system in the Council from 1 November 2014 (that is

the double majority, with 55% of the EU Member States representing 65% of the EU population), favours both the

most populous states and the smaller states; so the middle-size states must be compensated through a fairer

representation in the EP and the most favourable method for these states is the 0.5-DPL method.

Enlargements of the EU in the 2019-2024 term

If we use the 0.5-DPL method to obtain the composition of the EP with 701 seats in the

2019-2024 term, then the value of k in (5) is k=0.977. So the S

0.5L

apportionment can also

be obtained by using the function

701*0.5

( ) 0.977 (6)

90926.6 445519516

p

Ap









Because, in the denominators of (1), the sum of the square root of the populations is

90926.6 and the sum of the populations is 445519516.

If a new state joins the EU during the period 2019-2014, its seat allocation is obtained by

replacing the value of p in (5) by its population, and rounding upwards. If the result is

greater than 96, we must allocate it 96 seats, if the result does not reach 6, we must assign

it 6 seats.

For example, if we assume that Turkey is admitted into the EU and that its population is

78214000, then its adjusted quota is

701*0.5 78214000 701*0.5*78214000

(78214000) 0.977 93.42

90926.6 445519516

A



  





And the rounding upwards of 93.42 gives 94 seats to Turkey.

However if Montenegro were the country that enters the EU, its adjusted quota is 3.44 and

it receives 6 seats. Table 4 shows the results for several countries.

Table 4: Enlargements of the EU during the 2019-2024 term

Country

p=Population

A(p)

S

0.5L

.

Turkey

78214000

93.42

94

Serbia

7103000

15.50

16

Bosnia and Herz.

3750000

10.18

11

Albania

2887000

8.61

9

F.Y.R.O.M.

2071000

7.01

8

Montenegro

620000

3.44

6

Source for the populations:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population

If all the six previously mentioned States joined to the EU during the period 2019-2024, the

size of the EP would temporarily exceed the maximum of 751 seats by 94 seats.

In this case, for the period 2024-2029 there should be a readjustment to the 751 seats, and

the results with the 0.5-DPL method would be those that appear in Table 5.

In Table 5 we consider four scenarios for this hypothetical enlargement of the EU:

a) The limitations are 6-96,

b) The limitations change to 5-96 (as CamCom suggests),

c) The limitations change to 4-96 and

d) Without limitations.

The Composition of the European Parliament

35

Table 5: Enlargements of the EU. 2024-2029 term. 0.5-DPL method

Country

6-96

5-96

4-96

No Limitations

Current

Germany

86

87

96

Turkey

82

83

84

-

France

72

73

74

Italy

68

69

73

Spain

54

55

54

Poland

47

51

Romania

29

32

The Netherlands

26

Belgium

19

20

21

Greece

19

21

Czech Rep.

18

19

21

Portugal

18

21

Sweden

18

20

Hungary

18

21

Austria

16

18

Bulgaria

14

17

Serbia

14

-

Denmark

12

13

Finland

12

13

Slovakia

12

13

Ireland

11

Croatia

10

11

Bosnia-Herz

9

10

-

Albania

8

-

Lithuania

8

11

F.Y.R.O.M.

7

-

Slovenia

7

8

Latvia

7

8

Estonia

6

5

6

Cyprus

6

5

4

6

Montenegro

6

5

4

-

Luxembourg

6

5

4

3

6

Malta

6

5

4

3

6

Total

751

678

7. CONCLUSIONS

A formula is required to assign seats in the European Parliament to EU Member States

clearly and objectively.

At present, the distribution of EP seats among the 28 Member States diverges from the

Lisbon Treaty provisions because it violates the principle of degressive proportionality in the

sense proposed by Lamassoure and Severin, and also by the "Cambridge Compromise".

The withdrawal of UK from the EU is regrettable. But at least we may use some of the seats

that UK releases to increase the representation of those Member States affected by inverse

DP, without a significant reduction in the representation of many other Member States.

There are many allocations that conform to DP before rounding. In this paper we show a

parametric family of methods that respect the principle of DP. These methods have a

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

36

scientific justification. Some methods differ from others in the degree of DP that they

achieve.

We chose a method with an intermediate degree of degressivity, the 0.5-DPL method,

which also has a political justification: the distribution of seats obtained by 0.5-DPL is

close to the current one, with the exception of the countries affected by inverse DP or

illogical allocation, as shown in section 2.

Regarding the size of the EP after Brexit, our recommendation is that it should be higher

than 678 (= 751-73), because, in that way, we can use seats released by the UK to correct

inverse DP. On the other hand, the size of the EP should not exceed by much the

number of 700 seats, since this would do very detrimental to Germany, as explained

in section 3. In fact, this paper also includes a critical analysis of the minimum and

maximum limits of 6 seats and 96 seats respectively for each Member State, and suggests

removing them in a future Treaty revision. To compare our method with other known

methods, we have taken the size of the EP to be 701 seats.

Then, the 0.5-DPL method allocates seats in the European Parliament, which in the case of

the 2014-2019 parliamentary term would be closer to the current distribution than other

methods such as the Cambridge Compromise, the parabolic and the power methods.

The 0.5-DPL method can be perfectly and succinctly described as follows: the quota

for each Member State is calculated by distributing half of the seats in proportion to the

square root of the population and the other half of the seats in proportion to the population

of that state. The obtained quota is rounded to integers using the Adams method, with a

minimum of 6 and a maximum of 96.

Therefore, the allocation with the 0.5-DPL method can be made with an elementary

calculator. This method is transparent, simple and durable.

Finally, the Jagiellonian Compromise is a very good system to assign voting weight to

each Member State in the Council. In addition, it is an easier method to be applied than the

double–majority system. In the event that a country leaves the EU the size of the EP is

reduced according to the number of seats of the outgoing country, and the weight of the

votes in the Council must be recalculated.

The Composition of the European Parliament

DEGRESSIVE PROPORTIONALITY IN THE EUROPEAN

UNION

Dr. Wojciech SŁOMCZYŃSKI AND Prof. Karol ŻYCZKOWSKI

1. ALLOCATING SEATS IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

According to the Treaty on European Union (EU) (in particular Article 14(2))

1

and the

Council of the European Union Decision of 28 June 2013 establishing the composition of the

European Parliament (EP)

2

, the apportionment of seats in the EP should be based on the

principle of degressive proportionality further technically specified in Article 1 of the

Decision as follows:

 the allocation of seats in the European Parliament shall fully utilise the minimum and

maximum numbers set by the Treaty on European Union in order to reflect as closely

as possible the sizes of the respective populations of Member States,

1

Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union, OJ C 326, 26.10.2012.

2

European Council Decision of 28 June 2013 establishing the composition of the European Parliament, OJ L 181,

29.6.2013, p. 57–58.

KEY FINDINGS

 Allocating seats in the European Parliament (EP) according to a selected

mathematical formula based on the populations of the Member States, allows us to

avoid potential problems which may occur with any change in the number of Member

States or with any considerable variation of their population.

 There exists a plethora of mathematical systems for the seats apportionment that

agree with the bounds adopted by the Treaties and the rule of degressive

proportionality. One of the simplest is the base + prop scheme, known also as the

Cambridge Compromise.

 The Modified Cambridge Compromise (base + power scheme) is better suited in the

case of the predicted exit of the United Kingdom from the EU than the original

Cambridge Compromise, and results in the minimum transfer of seats in the EP,

regardless of the size of the EP, with the rounding method adjusted to the size.

 Brexit provides a unique opportunity to implement a smooth transition to a new

balanced allocation system in such a way that each Member State obtains at least

the current number of seats in the EP. Such solutions exist also for an appropriately

reduced size of the Parliament.

 The minimum size of the EP for which such a smooth solution exists in case of the

Modified Cambridge Compromise is 721 (according to the current population data).

 Transition to one of the systems mentioned above will increase the share of

representatives for a few of the largest Member States, and will reduce it for the

medium-sized ones. Thus, to preserve the overall balance of power in the European

Union, one should consider a simultaneous modification of the voting system in the

Council of the European Union. For this purpose we recommend the degressive

proportional system called the Jagiellonian Compromise that strengthens the voting

power of the medium-sized states.

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

38

 the ratio between the population and the number of seats of each Member State before

rounding to whole numbers shall vary in relation to their respective populations in

such a way that each Member of the European Parliament from a more populous

Member State represents more citizens than each Member from a less populous Member

State and, conversely, that the larger the population of a Member State, the greater its

entitlement to a large number of seats

3

.

Since we have analysed this principle thoroughly in the paper entitled «Mathematical

aspects of degressive proportionality» published four years ago

4

, here we shall present only

a brief résumé and refer the reader to the paper itself and the references therein for further

details.

Degressive proportionality

The notion of degressive proportionality

5

plays a crucial role in the current

apportionment scheme for the European Parliament. The principle of degressive

proportionality enshrined in the Lisbon Treaty was probably borrowed from discussions on

taxation rules, where the term appeared as early as the nineteenth century, when many

countries introduced income tax for the first time in their history. It was already included in

the debate on apportionment in the Parliament in the late 1980s

6

, but at first it was a rather

vague idea that gradually evolved into a formal legal (and mathematical) term in the

Lamassoure & Severin report

7

adopted by the European Parliament in 2007.

The notion hardly appears in the constitutional solutions of the apportionment problem

adopted either inside or outside the EU, where the proportional apportionment schemes

seem to be prevalent. However, one can find several cases in political practice where

degressively proportional solutions have been implemented, though not necessarily

precisely defined and not necessarily under this name.

Firstly, many allocation systems that reserve a minimum number of seats in a political

body, for all subunits represented, usually fail to be proportional, and so, some amount of

degressive proportionality seems to be a natural solution in this case. The most famous

example that comes to mind here is the Electoral College that formally elects the

President and Vice President of the United States of America, where each state is allocated

as many electors as it has Senators (equal base) and Representatives (proportional

representation, with at least one seat per state) in the United States Congress. The idea of

combining these two approaches to the apportionment problem was first put forward by one

of the Founding Fathers of the United States and future American President, James

Madison

8

in 1788.

Secondly, we can find at least two examples from European political practice: the

apportionment of seats both in the upper house of the German Parliament

9

(Bundesrat), and in the electoral body comprising the members of the twelve

Provincial Councils (Provinciale Staten) that elects the Senate (Eerste Kamer) of the

Dutch Parliament, that are also de facto though not de jure degressively proportional.

3

Cegiełka, K., 2013, Composition of the European Parliament in the 2009-2014 term. Didactics of Mathematics 9,

25-34.

4

Słomczyński, W., Życzkowski, K., 2012, Mathematical aspects of degressive proportionality. Mathematical Social

Sciences 63, 94–101.

5

Pukelsheim, F., 2014, Proportional Representation – Apportionment Methods and Their Applications. With

a Foreword by Andrew Duff MEP. Springer, Cham (CH), p. 166.

6

However, the concept does not appear in Balinski, ML. Young, HP. 1982, Fair representation in the European

Parliament. Journal of Common Market Studies 20, 361-373.

7

Lamassoure, A. - Severin, A., 2007, EP Resolution on ‘Proposal to amend the Treaty provisions concerning the

composition of the European Parliament’ adopted on 11 October 2007 (INI/2007/2169).

8

Madison, J., 1788, The conformity of the plan to republican principles. The Independent Journal, January 18,

Federalist Paper No. 39.

9

Allen, TJ., Taagepera, R., 2016, Seat allocation in federal second chambers. CSD Working Papers.

The Composition of the European Parliament

39

Thirdly, the distribution of votes in the Council of the European Union from the very

beginning of the European Communities until quite recent times, when the system of

‘double majority’ was introduced, has reflected the principle of degressive proportionality

10

.

There have also been suggestions in academic literature to apply this general principle to

the apportionment process in some other parliamentary or quasi-parliamentary bodies, such

as the projected Parliamentary Assembly of the United Nations

11

.

Degressively proportional apportionment – an algorithm

There is a fundamental difference between proportional and degressive proportional

apportionment. While the former is a precisely defined mathematical concept, where only

the rounding procedure gives us some freedom of manoeuvre, the latter does not

provide us with a single solution, but instead offers an infinite number of options

from which to choose.

How to cope with such a plethora of options in a systematic way? One of the major

mathematical approaches to the problem of degressively proportional apportionment in the

European Parliament can be described by the following general scheme:

1. One has to choose a concrete characterisation of the size of a given Member State i

by a number p

i

(for example, equal to the total number of its inhabitants, citizens or

voters), which we call here population, and precisely define by which means the

required data should be collected and how often it should be updated. Then, one

needs to transform these numbers by an allocation function A belonging to a given

family (allocation scheme) indexed by some parameter d, whose range of

variability is determined by the requirement that the function fulfils constraints

imposed by the Treaties: is non-decreasing and degressively proportional.

2. Additionally, the allocation function A has to satisfy certain boundary conditions:

A(p) = m and A(P) = M, where the population of the smallest and the largest state

equals, respectively, p and P, with the smallest and the largest number of seats

predetermined as, respectively, m and M. (In the case of the EP these quantities are

explicitly determined by the Treaty and the Decision: m = 6 and M = 96.)

3. To assign integer number of seats for each Member State one has to round the

values of the allocation function, e.g. using one of three standard rounding

methods (upward, downward or to the nearest integer).

4. Finally, one has to choose the parameter d in such a way that the sum of the seat

numbers of all Member States equals the projected number of seats in the EP (S),

solving (if possible) in d the equation:

where N stands for the number of Member States, p

i

for the population of the i-th

state (i = 1, …, N), and [・] denotes the rounded number.

Thus to prepare a degressive proportional apportionment of seats for the EP we have to set

three variables:

a. the number of seats in the EP – S;

b. the allocation scheme – A;

c. the rounding method – [・].

Knowing a), b) and c), we can choose the appropriate parameter d and, consequently,

a concrete allocation function resulting in the distribution of seats in the EP associated with

the given variables. Though usually there is a whole interval of parameters satisfying this

10

Best, E., 2004, What is really at stake in the debate over votes? EIPAScope 1, p. 14-23.

11

Bummel, A., 2010, The composition of a parliamentary assembly at the United Nations. Background Paper No. 3.

Berlin: Committee for a Democratic UN; see also von Bogdandy, A., 2012, The European Lesson for International

Democracy: The Significance of Articles 9–12 EU Treaty for International Organizations. The European Journal of

International Law 23, 315-334.

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

40

requirement, nonetheless, in a generic case, the distribution of seats established in this

way is unique. This technique bears a resemblance to divisor methods in the

proportional apportionment problem used first by Thomas Jefferson

12

in 1792.

Please note that in the Lamassoure and Severin definition of degressive proportionality it

was postulated that this property holds for the number of seats after rounding the values

of the allocation function to whole numbers. However, one can show that there exist such

distributions of population that there is no solution to the apportionment problem satisfying

such defined degressive proportionality

13

. Consequently, Grimmett et al. recommended

14

to

weaken this condition and to amend the definition of degressive proportionality assuming

that the property holds for the number of seats before rounding.

Proposed forms of allocating schemes

In our papers published several years ago

15

we gathered together and analysed seven

natural allocation schemes, i.e., seven one-parameter families of allocation functions

16

,

and studied their properties with the implementation to the apportionment for the EP under

three rounding procedures (downward, to the nearest integer, upward):

 base + prop,

 piecewise linear,

 quadratic (parabolic),

 base + power,

 homographic,

 linear + hyperbolic,

 min-max proportional.

All seven families mentioned above share a common element: the linear (affine)

allocation function. This is undoubtedly the simplest allocation function one can imagine.

However, under present circumstances, it would lead to a smaller parliament than the

current one, but its size can serve as an indicator to estimate how many seats we can

allocate freely besides the linear (or, more precisely, affine) distribution.

Note that all these solutions have been already discussed in the academic literature. The

base + prop scheme, which seems to be the simplest of all these methods, was first

analysed by Pukelsheim

17

and became the basis for the proposal, called ‘Cambridge

Compromise’, elaborated in January 2011 by a group of mathematicians and political

12

Balinski, ML., Young, HP., 1978, The Jefferson method of apportionment. SIAM Review 20, 278–284.

13

Ramírez-González, V., 2010, Degressive proportionality. Composition of the European Parliament. The parabolic

method. In: Cichocki, M., Życzkowski, K. (Eds.), Institutional Design and Voting Power in the European Union.

Ashgate, London (called further [CŻ10]), p. 215–234.

14

Grimmett, G., Laslier, J.-F., Pukelsheim, F., Ramírez-González, V., Rose, R., Słomczyński, W., Zachariasen, M.,

Życzkowski, K., 2011, The allocation between the EU member states of the seats in the European Parliament.

Cambridge Compromise. European Parliament Studies, PE 432.760.

15

Słomczyński, W., Życzkowski, K., 2010, On bounds for the allocation of seats in the European Parliament. In:

[CŻ10], p. 269-281; Słomczyński, Życzkowski, 2012, op. cit.; see also Cegiełka, K., Łyko, J., 2014, Application of

Hamilton’s and divisor methods to degressively proportional allocation functions. Procedia - Social and Behavioral

Sciences 110, 103–112.

16

The detailed formulae can be found in Słomczyński & Życzkowski 2012, op. cit. Here, we would like to recall only

one of them:

A

d

(t) = (M(t

d

– p

d

) + m(P

d

– t

d

))/(P

d

- p

d

)

for the base + power allocation function with the exponent d, where m and M denote the number of seats for the

smallest and the largest Member State, with population p and P, respectively, and p ≤ t ≤ P. This formula

(combined with the appropriate rounding) was used for computing the numbers in Tables 1 and 2 (columns: MCC

and L), with m = 6, M = 96, p = 434 403 and P = 82 064 489, where t stands for the population of a given

country. The calculation of the exponent d is based on the algorithm described in details in the preceding

subsection. The values of exponents are given in the tables.

17

Pukelsheim, F., 2007, A Parliament of degressive representativeness? Preprint No. 015/2007, Institut für

Mathematik, Universität Augsburg.

The Composition of the European Parliament

41

scientists

18

, and discussed later by the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO) of the

EP. The piecewise linear scheme was proposed for the first time by the authors of this

briefing

19

and, independently, by Ramírez González et al.

20

under the name of the Linear

Spline Method. On the other hand, the quadratic (parabolic) scheme was advocated by

Ramírez González and his co-workers in a series of papers

21

. The base + power scheme

has been studied by many authors from Ramírez González et al.

22

to Grimmett et al.

23

,

although it can be traced to the paper of Theil and Schrage

24

from 1977. Note that a similar

method was proposed for solving the taxation problem as early as the nineteenth century

by the Dutch economist Cohen-Stuart

25

. The homographic scheme functions introduced by

the authors

26

, were also studied under the name of projective quotas by Serafini

27

. The

linear + hyperbolic scheme was used both in the apportionment problem for the EP

28

, as

well as in the tax schedule proposed by the Swedish economist Cassel at the beginning of

the twentieth century

29

. Finally, the proportional apportionment method with minimum

and maximum requirements was considered by Balinski and Young

30

. Moreover, the

linear allocation function was studied under the name of base + strict prop by Kellerman

31

.

We have observed that all these solutions are quite similar (with the notable exception of

min-max proportional), which is a consequence of the fact that our choice is limited by two

factors: the predetermined shape of the graph of an allocation function, and the fact that

the vast majority of seats are, in a sense, distributed in advance. However, one can

observe that the results for the parabolic, base + power, and homographic allocation

schemes lead to quite similar apportionments, whereas the choice of the base + prop

scheme is advantageous for large countries, and the piecewise linear and

linear + hyperbolic schemes seems to be beneficial for small countries

32

.

In 2011 the authors of this briefing joined the group of mathematicians and political

scientists endorsing the so-called ‘Cambridge Compromise’

33

. This allocation system, was

selected mainly because of its obvious simplicity

34

. However, this solution has been

criticised for being ‘not degressively proportional enough’ and departing too much from the

18

Grimmett et al. 2011, op. cit.

19

Słomczyński & Życzkowski 2012, op. cit.

20

Ramírez-González, V., Martínez Aroza, A., Márquez García, M., 2012, Spline methods for degressive proportionality

in the composition of the European Parliament. Mathematical Social Sciences 63, 114-120.

21

Ramírez González, V., 2004, Some guidelines for an electoral European system. In: Workshop on Institutions and

Voting Rules in the European Constitution, Seville, 10–12 December; Ramírez-González, V., Palomares Bautista,

A., Márquez García, M., 2006, Degressively proportional methods for the allotment of the European Parliament

seats amongst the EU member states. In: Simeone, B., Pukelsheim, F. (Eds.), Mathematics and Democracy.

Recent Advances in Voting Systems and Collective Choice. Springer, Berlin, p. 205–220.

22

Ramírez-González et al. 2006, op. cit.

23

Grimmett, G., Oelbermann, K.-F., Pukelsheim, F., 2012, A power-weighted variant of the EU27 Cambridge

Compromise. Mathematical Social Sciences 63, 136–140; see also Pukelsheim 2014, op. cit., p. 170., where the

method is called the downgraded-population variant of the Cambridge Compromise.

24

Theil, H., Schrage, L., 1977, The apportionment problem and the European Parliament. European Economic Review

9, 247–263.

25

Cohen-Stuart, AJ., 1889, Bijdrage tot de Theorie der Progressieve Inkomstenbelasting. Martinus Nijhoff, Den Haag.

26

Słomczyński & Życzkowski 2012, op. cit.

27

Serafini, P., 2012, Allocation of the EU Parliament seats via integer linear programming and revised quotas.

Mathematical Social Sciences 63, 107–113.

28

Słomczyński & Życzkowski 2010, op. cit.

29

Cassel, KG., 1901, The theory of progressive taxation. The Economic Journal 11, 481–491.

30

Balinski, ML., Young, HP., 2001. Fair Representation. Meeting the Ideal of One Man, One Vote, second ed.

Brookings Institution Press, Washington, p. 133.

31

Kellermann, T., 2012, The minimum-based procedure: A principled way to allocate seats in the European

Parliament. Mathematical Social Sciences 63, 102-106.

32

Using the measure of degressive proportionality introduced in: Dniestrzański, P., 2014, Proposal for measure of

degressive proportionality. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110, 140–147, one can check that it is

possible to order considered schemes from the least to the most degressively proportional: base + prop <

homographic ≈ parabolic < base + power < piecewise linear ≈ linear + hyperbolic. A similar hierarchy can be

reproduced by computing the relative entropy of the population distribution with respect to the seats distribution,

measuring in this way the deviation form proportionality, see Lauwers, L., Van Puyenbroeck, T., 2008, Minimally

Disproportional Representation: Generalized Entropy and Stolarsky Mean-Divisor Methods of Apportionment. HUB

research paper, Brussel.

33

Pukelsheim 2014, op. cit., p. 168-174.

34

Grimmett et al. 2011, op. cit.

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

42

status quo by Moberg

35

. In 2012 a solution very similar to the base + power scheme was

considered by Grimmett et al. as a step along a continuous transition from the negotiated

status quo composition to the constitutionally principled Cambridge Compromise

36

. The

crucial point in these discussions seems to be the meaning of the term ‘degressive

proportionality’. Is it only a less perfect form of (pure) proportionality, as it was actually

suggested by some authors or is it a separate notion that requires distinct (and new)

mathematical and political solutions, as Moberg claims? Personally, we incline towards

the latter suggestion.

2. RECOMMENDED SOLUTIONS FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

As ‘it is unclear whether the UK’s 73 seats will be lost or reallocated’

37

, we have analysed

six possible choices for the size of the EP:

 751 - with the UK;

 751 - without the UK;

 678 = 751 – 73 - without the UK;

 Optimal size - without the UK;

 Minimum size - with the UK;

 Minimum size - without the UK,

along with seven allocation schemes and three rounding methods, which overall results in

seventy seven different allocations. Analysing all these solutions, we primarily take into

account Article 4 of the Decision that requires establishing a system which in future will

make it possible, before each fresh election to the European Parliament, to allocate the

seats between Member States in an objective, fair, durable and transparent way,

translating the principle of degressive proportionality as laid down in Article 1, taking

account of any change in their number and demographic trends in their population, as duly

ascertained thus respecting the overall balance of the institutional system as laid

down in the Treaties

38

.

As all analysed schemes ‘translate the (mathematical) principle of degressive

proportionality’ into the political realm, and their mathematical form guarantees that the

resulted apportionment would be indeed objective, fair, durable and transparent, we have

looked for the solutions that change the status quo as little as possible

39

trying (in

order):

 to minimize the number of seats transferred;

 to minimize the number of Member States losing seats;

 to maximize the number of Member States gaining seats.

Such solutions would lead to a relatively smooth transition from the current

apportionment into a new one. We call them balanced solutions. Note that some

35

Moberg, A., 2012, EP seats: the politics behind the math. Mathematical Social Sciences 63, 78–84.

36

Grimmett et al. 2012, op. cit.

37

Patel, O., Reh, C., 2016, Brexit: The Consequences for the EU’s Political System. UCL Constitution Unit Briefing

Paper 2.

38

European Council Decision of 28 June 2013 establishing the composition of the European Parliament, op. cit.

39

Note that this fact seems to be crucial for practical implementation of a given apportionment scheme. For instance,

in opinion of the authors of Report on the composition of the European Parliament with a view to the 2014

elections. A7-0041/2013, the rapporteurs, Gualtieri and Trzaskowski, both base + prop and parabolic schemes

deviated too strongly from the status quo. As they wrote: The implementation [of the ‘Cambridge compromise’ as

the most ‘proportional’ mechanism respecting degressive proportionality] would trigger a traumatic reallocation of

seats, with heavy losses for medium-sized and small Member States and huge increases for larger ones.

Furthermore, failure to abolish the 96 upper limit would discriminate against Germany among the large Member

States, introducing a steep rise in the population/seats ratio between France and Germany. Among the various

possible mathematical formulae for implementing the principle of degressive proportionality the ‘parabolic’ method

is one of the most degressive. It could, in the longer term, be used as a benchmark in the absence of a treaty

change, but the redistribution which this model entails would be too drastic to be politically sustainable in a single

step. Cf. note 32.

The Composition of the European Parliament

43

transfer of seats is inevitable in this case, firstly, because of demographic changes

40

and, secondly, since the present apportionment in the EP is, in a sense, erratic and

irregular as a result of some historical bargaining

41

, rather than objective

considerations. To be more specific, one can say, with some degree of unavoidable

inaccuracy, that there are three groups of Member States for which the result of projected

changes will be, relatively or absolutely (depending on the future size of the EP)

 positive: France, the United Kingdom (if applicable), Spain, Estonia;

 neutral: Germany, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia,

Ireland, Croatia, Slovenia, Latvia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta;

 negative: Romania, Belgium, Greece, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Sweden,

Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria, Lithuania.

The results of our considerations are outlined below, divided according to two main criteria -

the size of the EP and the presence of the British MEPs (see Tab. 1 and Tab. 2 for

details):

EP 751 (with the UK)

We are still convinced that the ‘Cambridge Compromise’ gives here the simplest acceptable

solution. However, a balanced solution in this case is given by the base + power

scheme with the rounding downwards.

EP 751 (without the UK)

Assume that the size of the EP remains unchanged after Brexit and all British seats are

distributed among other Member States. Then the ‘Cambridge Compromise’ produces

a solution with a substantial transfer of seats, especially to a few large states, while the

balanced solution is given by the base + power scheme rounding upwards.

EP 678 (without the UK)

Assume that the size of the EP is reduced by the number of British seats. Here again the

‘Cambridge Compromise’ produces a solution with a substantial transfer of seats, while the

balanced solution is given by the base + power scheme with rounding downwards.

EP Optimal size (without the UK)

Assume that the size of the EP is reduced by a smaller number than the number of British

seats. We have been looking for the smallest size of the Parliament with no Member State

losing seats. Several options are possible here with the balanced solution given in this

case by the base + power scheme with rounding to the nearest integer and the size

of the EP equal to 721.

EP Minimum size (with or without the UK)

Assume that the simplest allocation function is chosen, i.e., linear with the rounding to

the nearest integer. The resulting size of the EP would be either 718 (with the UK) or 640

(without the UK). Although probably politically hard to implement, this solution shows

(approximately) how many seats can be in fact freely allocated in both situations: only

751 – 718 = 33 or 678 – 640 = 38, respectively.

An additional argument for the base + power scheme

The base + power scheme has an additional property called super-proportionality

42

. To

illustrate this property consider two pairs of Member States: Romania/France and

Belgium/Poland, with the similar population quotient (approx. 29.7%), and another such

configuration: Sweden/Romania and Finland/Greece (approx. 50.6%). Note that in all these

40

E.g., the population of Sweden is currently larger than that of Hungary, yet Hungary has one more seat in the

European Parliament.

41

Balinski & Young 1982, op. cit.

42

See Słomczyński & Życzkowski 2012, op. cit. for a precise definition of this notion.

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

44

cases the seat quotient must be larger than the population quotient because of

degressive proportionality. However, in both cases (assuming the balanced solution and the

current size of the EP: 28 states and 751 seats) the seat quotient is greater for the

‘smaller’ pair than for the ‘larger’ one, as we get 31.25% for Romania/France whereas

40% for Belgium/Poland, as well as 60% for Sweden/Romania whereas 68.42% for

Finland/Greece. In other words, a super-proportional method leads to the following property

of an allocation system (before rounding): The smaller a pair of states is, the larger the

gain in seats of the smaller member in the pair over the larger one. Hence, if an

allocation function is super-proportional, then the degressive proportionality acts more

strongly for smaller states, and so such functions are, in a sense, more degressively

proportional than others. Thus, this is in fact a kind of degressive–degressive

proportionality.

Final recommendation for the European Parliament apportionment

We recommend the adoption of the Modified Cambridge Compromise (MCC), i.e.,

base + power system as the solution that minimizes the transfer of seats and, at the

same time, fulfils all constitutional requirements and expresses the principle of

degressive proportionality more accurately than other solutions considered. The

specific form of rounding in the system should depend on the projective size of the EP

and concrete population data, and should be chosen to further minimize the transfer of

seats. Having at our disposal two extreme solutions: maintaining the current size of the

Parliament (751) or reducing the size by all British seats (to 678), we advocate, however,

for an intermediate solution. Assuming that no Member State should lose any seat during

the transition procedure, and simultaneously trying to minimize the size of the Parliament,

we arrive at the ‘optimal’ number of 721 representatives

The Composition of the European Parliament

45

Table 1: Alternative proposals for the EP apportionment depending on the EP size (with

the UK). Here (CC) stands for the Cambridge Compromise, (MCC) for the base + power

scheme, (L) for the linear allocation, (d) and (n) for the rounding, resp., downwards and to

the nearest integer. Total transfer of seats is the sum of losses and gains in the number of

seats. The exponents are computed for the base + power schemes.

Member State

Population

Status quo

EP+UK

751

(CC)

EP+UK

751

(MCC)

(d)

EP+UK

Minimum

(L)

(n)

Germany

82 064 489

96

France

66 661 621

74

84

80

79

United

Kingdom

65 341 183

73

83

79

78

Italy

61 302 519

73

78

74

73

Spain

46 438 422

54

60

59

57

Poland

37 967 209

51

50

47

Romania

19 759 968

32

29

30

27

The

Netherlands

17 235 349

26

27

25

Belgium

11 289 853

21

19

20

18

Greece

10 793 526

21

18

19

17

Czech Republic

10 445 783

21

18

19

17

Portugal

10 341 330

21

18

19

17

Sweden

9 998 000

20

17

18

17

Hungary

9 830 485

21

17

18

16

Austria

8 711 500

18

16

17

15

Bulgaria

7 153 784

17

14

15

13

Denmark

5 700 917

13

12

13

12

Finland

5 465 408

13

12

13

12

Slovakia

5 407 910

13

12

11

Ireland

4 664 156

11

12

11

Croatia

4 190 669

11

10

11

10

Lithuania

2 888 558

11

9

Slovenia

2 064 188

8

Latvia

1 968 957

8

Estonia

1 315 944

6

7

Cyprus

848 319

6

7

6

Luxembourg

576 249

6

Malta

434 403

6

UE-27

510 860 699

751

718

Total transfer of seats

0

66

42

56

Exponent

-

0.903

1

Population data based on the Council Decision 2016/2353 of 8 December 2016 amending the Council's Rules of

Procedure. (See endnote 16 for the formula used to compute the MCC and the linear apportionments.)

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

46

Table 2: Alternative proposals for the EP apportionment depending on the EP size (without

the UK). Here (MCC) stands for the base + power scheme, (L) for the linear allocation, and

(d), (n), and (u) for the rounding, resp., downwards, to the nearest integer, and upwards.

Total transfer of seats is the sum of losses and gains in the number of seats. The exponents

are computed for the base + power schemes.

Member State

Population

Status

quo

EP-UK

751

(MCC)

(u)

EP-UK

Optimal

(MCC)

(n)

EP-UK

678

(MCC)

(d)

EP-UK

Minimum

(L)

(n)

Germany

82 064 489

96

France

66 661 621

74

83

82

80

79

United Kingdom

-

73

-

Italy

61 302 519

73

78

76

75

73

Spain

46 438 422

54

63

62

60

57

Poland

37 967 209

51

55

53

51

47

Romania

19 759 968

32

35

33

30

27

The

Netherlands

17 235 349

26

31

30

27

25

Belgium

11 289 853

21

24

22

20

18

Greece

10 793 526

21

23

22

20

17

Czech Republic

10 445 783

21

23

21

19

17

Portugal

10 341 330

21

23

21

19

17

Sweden

9 998 000

20

22

21

19

17

Hungary

9 830 485

21

22

21

18

16

Austria

8 711 500

18

20

19

17

15

Bulgaria

7 153 784

17

18

17

15

13

Denmark

5 700 917

13

16

15

13

12

Finland

5 465 408

13

16

14

13

12

Slovakia

5 407 910

13

16

14

13

11

Ireland

4 664 156

11

14

13

12

11

Croatia

4 190 669

11

14

13

11

10

Lithuania

2 888 558

11

9

Slovenia

2 064 188

8

10

9

8

Latvia

1 968 957

8

10

9

8

Estonia

1 315 944

6

8

7

Cyprus

848 319

6

7

6

Luxembourg

576 249

6

7

6

Malta

434 403

6

UE-27

445 519 516

751

721

678

640

Total transfer of seats

0

73

43

34

56

Exponent

-

0.796

0.829

0.886

1

Population data based on the Council Decision 2016/2353 of 8 December 2016 amending the Council's Rules of

Procedure. (See endnote 16 for the formula used to compute the MCC and the linear apportionments.)

The Composition of the European Parliament

47

THE SYSTEM OF VOTING IN THE COUNCIL OF THE EU

Adopting one of the mathematically motivated, fair and objective systems of allocation of

seats in the EP recommended above, will lead to a certain transfer of power in the European

Union. In particular, the largest Member States (with the exception of Germany) will

increase their number of representatives in the Parliament. Therefore, to preserve the

overall balance of power in the Union, it is well justified to consider a simultaneous

suitable modification of the existing voting system in the Council.

The current solution, adopted in December 2007 in Lisbon, is based on the principle of

‘double majority’: a decision of the Council is taken if it is supported by a coalition, which:

a. is formed by at least 55% of the Member States,

b. represents at least 65% of the population of the Union.

Additionally, a decision is adopted if the supporting coalition consists of all but three (or

fewer) countries even if it represents less than 65% of the population of the Union

43

.

The case of Brexit creates an urgent need to discuss and reconsider these rules

44

.

A detailed analysis by Moberg shows that the current system of the ‘double majority’ is not

really double, as the population criterion (b) plays a dominant role

45

. As noted by several

authors

46

, the existing system is biased in favour of the most and the least populated

countries. In particular, the voting power of a typical citizen in these states, measured by

the Banzhaf-Penrose index, is larger than the power of a medium-sized state citizen. These

disadvantages of any ‘double majority’ voting system were noted by Lionel Penrose

47

as

long ago as in 1952. Working on the problem of voting power, Penrose formulated his

square root law and proposed an objective voting system, in which the voting weights

are proportional to the square root of the population for each state. A voting system

based on the Penrose law was first proposed for the Council of Ministers by Laruelle and

Widgrén

48

in 1996 and, independently, by Felsenthal and Machover

49

in 1997.

However, to construct any weighted voting system one has to choose not only the

voting weights, but also to fix the quota (threshold) of the qualified majority, which

plays a crucial role in the system

50

. In the past, the quotas in the voting systems for the

Council had been established subjectively in a bargaining procedure, without an objective

justification. A new solution to the problem relates the value of the quota to an

optimization procedure: the optimal quota is set in such a way that the voting power of

every citizen in each Member State is approximately equal

51

. Such a solution is known in

the literature as the Jagiellonian Compromise

52

and its advantages have been

43

Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union, OJ C 326, 26.10.2012, Article 16(4).

44

Macháček, V., Hrtúsová, T., 2016, Brexit and the functioning of European institutions. Special analysis, EU

Office/Knowledge Centre - Česká spořitelna; Kalcik, R., Wolff, GB., 2017, Is Brexit an opportunity to reform the

European Parliament? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2.

45

Moberg, A., 2010, Is the double majority really double? The voting rules in the Lisbon Treaty. In: [CŻ10], p. 19-34.

46

See [CŻ10]: Kirsch, W., The distribution of power in the Council of Ministers of the European Union, p. 93-107;

Pukelsheim, F., Putting citizens first: Representation and power in the European Union, p. 235-253; Słomczyński &

Życzkowski 2010, op. cit.

47

Penrose, LS., 1952, On the Objective Study of Crowd Behaviour. H.K. Lewis & Co, London.

48

Laruelle, A., Widgrén, M., 1996, Is the Allocation of Voting Power Among the EU States Fair? CEPR Discussion

Paper No. 1402.

49

Felsenthal, DS., Machover, M., 1997, The weighted voting rule in the EU’s Council of Ministers, 1958–95:

Intentions and outcomes. Electoral Studies 16, 33–47.

50

Machover, M., 2010, Penrose’s square root rule and the EU Council of the Ministers: Significance of the quota. In:

[CŻ10], p. 35-42.

51

Słomczyński, W., Życzkowski, K., 2004, Voting in the European Union: The Square Root System of Penrose and a

Critical Point. Preprint cond-mat.0405396; Życzkowski, K., Słomczyński, W., Zastawniak, T., 2006, Physics for

fairer voting. Physics World 19, 35-37; Słomczyński, W., Życzkowski, K., 2007, From a toy model to the double

square root voting system. Homo Oeconomicus 24, 381-399.

52

Słomczyński, W., Życzkowski, K., 2010, Jagiellonian Compromise - an alternative voting system for the Council of

the European Union. In: [CŻ10], p. 43-57; Słomczyński, W., Życzkowski, K., 2014, Square root voting system,

optimal threshold and π. In: Fara, R., Leech, D., Salles, M. (Eds.), Voting Power and Procedures. Springer, Berlin,

p. 127–146.

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

48

acknowledged by several experts

53

. Its name is related to the fact that it can be considered

as an objective and fair compromise between the older Nice voting system, in which

the largest Member States suffer a relatively small voting power, and the current ‘double

majority’ voting system, where they seem to have too much power.

The Jagiellonian Compromise is a voting system for the Council of Ministers consisting

of a single criterion only determined by the following two rules:

1. Each Member State is attributed the voting weight proportional to the square

root of its population;

2. The decision of the Council is taken if the sum of the weights of members of

a coalition supporting it exceeds the quota equal to the arithmetical mean of the

sum of the weights and the square root of the total population of the Union.

The quota for the qualified majority is considerably larger than 50% for any size of the

voting body of a practical interest. Thus, the voting system is moderately conservative,

as it should be. Furthermore, it is transparent: the voting power of each Member State,

measured by the Banzhaf-Penrose index, is, up to a high accuracy, proportional to its voting

weight. As a crucial advantage of the system one can emphasize its extendibility: if the

number of Member States or their populations change, all one needs to do is to set the

voting weights according to the rule (1), and adjust the quota according to the rule (2).

Currently, the value of the optimal quota equals (approximately) 61.4%; while after

Brexit it would change to 61.6%. Implementing a new voting system in the Council based

on the Jagiellonian Compromise would contribute to an increase in the a priori voting power

of the medium-sized members of the EU. In a sense, this step would compensate for the

losses incurred by these states due to the allocation of seats according to the (Modified)

Cambridge Compromise and will contribute to preservation of the current overall

balance of power in the European Union.

Final recommendation for the voting system in the Council

We recommend the adoption of the Jagiellonian Compromise as the degressively

proportional solution for the voting system in the Council of Ministers, counterbalancing the

effects of the new apportionment of seats in the European Parliament.

53

Pukelsheim 2014, op. cit., p. 174-176.