Fact Sheet: 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports
The Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds report on the current
and projected financial status of the two programs each year. This document
summarizes the findings of the 2024 reports. As in prior years, we found that the
Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant
financing issues.
Based on our best estimates, this year’s reports show that:
• The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to
pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from
last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted
and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 79 percent of total
scheduled benefits.
• The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is projected to be able to pay 100
percent of total scheduled benefits through at least 2098, the last year of
this report’s projection period. Last year’s report projected that the DI
Trust Fund would be able to pay scheduled benefits through at least 2097,
the last year of that report’s projection period.
• If the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund projections are combined,
the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100
percent of total scheduled benefits until 2035, 1 year later than reported
last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become
depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 83
percent of scheduled benefits. (The two funds could not actually be
combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined
projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status
of the Social Security program.)
• The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of
total scheduled benefits until 2036, 5 years later than reported last year. At
that point, that fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing
program income will be sufficient to pay 89 percent of total scheduled
benefits.
• The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund is adequately
financed into the indefinite future because, unlike the other trust funds,
its main financing sources -- enrolled beneficiary premiums and the
associated federal contributions from the Treasury -- are automatically
adjusted each year to cover costs for the upcoming year. Although the
financing is assured, the rapidly rising SMI costs have been placing
steadily increasing demands on beneficiaries and general taxpayers.
The projected long-term finances of the combined OASDI fund improved this year
primarily due to an upward revision to the level of labor productivity over the
projection period and a lower assumed long-term disability incidence rate. These
improvements were partially offset by a decrease in the assumed long-term total
fertility rate. The revision to labor productivity was based on stronger economic
growth in 2023 than had been anticipated in last year’s reports. The Trustees
lowered the long-term disability incidence and fertility rate assumptions based on
continued low levels in both series.
The projected long-term finances of the HI Trust Fund also improved this year
relative to last. This improvement was due to several factors, including a policy
change correcting for the way medical education expenses are accounted for in
Medicare Advantage rates starting in 2024, higher payroll tax income resulting
from the stronger-than-expected economy, and actual 2023 expenditures that were
lower than projected last year.
The change in the projected long-term finances of the SMI Trust Fund from last
year’s report varies over the projection period. For Part B, the long-range
projections as a percent of GDP are lower than those projected last year through
2056 and higher thereafter. This change reflects the combined effects of lower
projected spending for outpatient hospital and home health agency services and
revised GDP projections. For Part D, the expenditure share of GDP is projected to
be higher than last year early in the projection period and to continue to vary but
become more similar to last year’s estimates later in the projection period. These
changes largely reflect revisions to drug utilization, enrollment, and GDP
projections.
Lawmakers have many options for changes that would reduce or eliminate the
long-term financing shortfalls. Taking action sooner rather than later will allow
consideration of a broader range of solutions and provide more time to phase in
changes so that the public has adequate time to prepare.
