ICAS Report No.
10a
November 1966
A
Recommended National Program
In
Weather Modification
A
Report
to
the
Interdepartmental Committee
for
Atmospheric Sciences
Homer
E.
Newell
bY
Associate Administrator
for
Space Science and Application
National
Aeronautics
Si
Space
Administration
Washington,
D.C.
Interdepartmental Committee
for
Atmospheric Sciences
I
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DONALD
F.
HORWIG,
Chairman
Special Assistant to
the
President for Science
and
Technology
Jowl
S.
PW!Wt,
JR.
Department
of
Defense
J.
HERBERT
HOLUXW
Department of Camerce
G-T.
SEABORG
Atdc Energy Camlssion
LELAND
J.
HAwOR!CE
Rational
Science Foundation
PHILIP
Re
LEE
JAMES
E.
WEBB
Department of Health, Education,
and
National Aeronautics
and
Space
Welfare
Administration
THCWS
F.
BATES
Department of the Interior
EEIWAt?
POLLACK
(Observer)
Department
of
State
WILLLAM
F.
McKEE
(Observer)
Federal Aviation Agency
JACK
W.
CARISOH
(Observer)
Council of Ekonolpic Advisers
GEORGEL.
MEHRW
Department
of
Agriculture
WILLIAM
D.
CAREX
(Observer)
Bureau
of
the
Budget
HERBFST
SCOVIIU,
JR.
(Observer)
Arms
Control
and
Disarmament Agency
S.
DILLON
RIpLey
(Observer)
Smithsonian
Institution
CHARtES
V.
KIDD
Executive Secretary
J.
HEREERT
HOLLWNI
chsim
Federal
Council for Science
and
Technology
UZUND
J.
HAWORTH,
Vice
Chairman
National
Science Foundation
RO[BERTM.
WHITE
Department
of
Camnerce
RICHARD
A.
PRINDU
Department of Health, Education,
and
JOSHUA
Z.
HaLIdl4D
(Acting)
Atamic Energy Cammission
Welfare
HERMAN
mucic
Department
of State
LEE
mmm
Federal Commrnicatlons Caannission
SAMUEL
A.
IAWREEE
(Observer)
Bureau
of
the
Budget
CLAY'IQR
E.
JWSEN
(Observer)
Office of
the
Federal Coordinator for
hieteo-ogicd. Services
and
Su~~orting
Research
THMlDoRE
C.
BmY
Department of Agriculture
DONALD
M.
MCARTMm
Department
of
Defense
HaMERE.
National
Aeronautics
and
Space
Administration
THaMAs
F.
BATES
De-nt
of
the Interior
JOSEWD.
BLATT
Federal Aviation Agency
DAvlD
Z.
ROBINSON
(Observer)
Office
of
Science
and
Technology
JOHN
R.
SIEVERS
(Observer)
National Academy of Sciences
smmmw.
BETlls
Executive Secretary
FEDERAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE
AND
TECHNOLOGY
INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
U.S.
DEPARTMENT
OF
COMMERCE
WASHINGTON,
D.C.
20230
ICAS Report No. 10a
November
7,
1966
MEMORANDUM
FOR DR. DONALD
F.
HORNIG
Subject: Weather Modification Program
At
its meeting of March
29,
1966
the Fe~dr61
Council
askel ICAS
to prepare
a
report outlining "who
is
doing what in weather
modification, the future plans of the agencies (particularly
Commerce and Interior) and their interrelationships, and the
considerations that should affect decisions on the division of
responsibilities for research in weather modification."
Forwarded herewith is
a
Report prepared for
ICAS
by
3r.
Homer
E.
Newell,
the NASA member
of
ICAS.
It
has been thoroughly con-
sidered by our Committee and is endorsed as the ICAS response
to the Council's request above.
J.
Herbert Hollomon
Chairman
A
Recommended National Program
In Weather Modification
A
Report
to
the
Interdepartmental Committee
for
Atmospheric Sciences
bY
Homer
E.
Newel1
Associate Administrator
for
Space Science
and
Applications
lVational Aeronadcs
A
Space Administration
Washington,
D.C.'
1
October
1966
A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL
PROGRAM
IN
WEATHER MODIFICATION
INTRODUCTION
The earth'sJeather has
a
profound influence
on
agriculture, forestry, water resources, industry, com-
merce, transportation, construction, field operations,
commercial fishing, and many other human activities.
Adverse effects of weather on man's activities and the
earth's resources are extremely costly, amounting to
billions of dollars per year, sometimes causing
irreparable damage as when human lives are lost in
severe storms. There is, therefore, great motivation
to
develop effective countermeasures against the
destructive effects of weather, and, conversely,
to
enhance the beneficial aspects. The financial and
other benefits to human welfare of being able to
modify weather to augment water supplies, reduce
lightning, suppress hail, mitigate tornados, and
inhibit the full development of hurricanes would be
very great.
Over the past twenty years experiments have been
conducted on weather modification, particularly on the
effects of seedinq clouds with such materials as
-
silver iodide crystals. The results are limited.
Under suitable circumstances it has been possible to
augment precipitation by ten to twenty percent,
and to
reduce the frequency of fire-producing lightning
strokes. Effects on hail production have been noted,
sometimes suppression and sometimes augmentation.
These results probably would be of only passing interest
were it not for the potential importance to mankind
of further progress in this field. Perhaps the most
significant result of the experiments to date has been
to bring about
a
change in attitude from one
of
skeptici9m to one of cautious optimism. The limited
success to date is encouraging, and underscores the
3
With the growing conviction of positive and poten-
tial results,
a
number of government agencies have been
developing plans for research and ultimately operational
programs in weather and climate modification. Some of
these plans stem from the desire to use weather modifi-
cation to meet specific mission responsibilities such
as development of water resources, protection of crops,
protection against forest fires,
ecc:
Other plans stem
-
m
dire= responsibility for furthering our under-
standing of weather and its uses.
A
summary report,
"Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies in
Weather-Climate Modification," dated June
20,
1966,
was
prepared for the Interdepartmental Committee for
Atnospheric Sciences
(ICAS)
by
a Select Panel on Weather
Modification (App.
111).
-Whereas the
ICAS
Select Panel
report reflected
a
desirable vigor in pressing forward
in this important field, nevertheless, it raised a
number of questions as to the soundness and adequacy of
proposed plans, the validity of cost estimates, the
availsbility of trained people to meet the schedules
proposed, overlapping of research activities, duplication
of proposed facilities, responsibility for coordination
and reporting, and responsibility for regulation and
control.
__
__
To
discharge its responsibilities,
ICAS
must provide
answers to these questions and make appropriate recommen-
dations.
To
this end, the Chairman of
ICAS,
Dr. Herbert
Hollomon, asked me to review the proposed plans and to
submit recommendations that might be adopted by
ICAS
for
a
report to Dr. Donald F. Hornig, Director of the Office
of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President.
TERMS
OF
REFERENCE
FOR
THIS
STUDY
The terns of reference for this study are set forth
in
the memorandum from Dr. Hollomon to me (App.
IV),
specifically requesting me to formulate
a
National Weather
4
Modification Program along the lines delineated in the
report
of
the
ICAS
Select
Panel
on
Weather Modification.
APPROACH
I
have taken the
ICAS
Select
Panel Report (App.
111)
as my starting point, and have used the
NAS
Panel and NSF
Special Commission Reports (Refs.
1,
2,
3)
as sources of
expert thinking on the subject. In order
to
penetrate
in
sufficient depth
into
the problems involved,
I
put
together a panel
of
NASA experks,
the
constitution
of
which
is
given in App.
V.
We
met
a number of
times
with
representatives from the Department of Agriculture, the
Environmental Science Services Administration
(ESSA),
the
Interior Department's Bureau of Reclamation, and the
National Science Foundation (NSF),
to
hear
briefings on
program plans and budgets,
to
discuss proposed schedules,
staffing, facility construction, and operations, and
to
review in
some
detail the validity of
cost
estimates.
We
received from these agencies a considerable volume
of
supporting documentation. Appendix
V
also
includes
a
chronology of Panel meetings, and a
list
of material
reviewed by the Panel.
I
elected
to
concentrate attention on the above
four agencies, since their programs, as
set
forth in
the
ICAS
Select
Panel Report, project
to
over
98%
of
the total national weather modification activity
in
1970.
Because the programs of the Department of Defense,
the Federal Aviation Agency, and the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration
were
such
a
small
part of the
total, they
were
not reviewed in detail.
In
assessing the validity of
cost
estimates,
I
sought
to
determine
realistic
and reasonable
orders
of
magnitude. Particular attention was paid
to
assessing
*
Henceforth the
NASA
Panel
will
be
referred
to
simply
as "the Panel."
5
the realism of the
estimates
of manpower resources and
availability, and their impact
on
possible rates
of
growth.
I
also sought to separate those areas meriting early
attention from those of a longer range nature that could
be
approached
more
slowly.
The observations and recommendations contained
in
the following sections are based on the Panel reviews
and deliberations.
It
should
be
emphasized that
the
recommendations deal with the major problems, on .the
assumption that if the major problems are resolved the
remaining pieces can
be
fitted
into
place.
RECOMMENDED
PRINCIPLES
Certain
principles
were
developed which underlie
the program recommendations.
It
is
recommended that
these
principles
be
accepted
in
the development
of
the
National Weather Modification Program.
It
is
intended
that
the
principles apply to all agencies involved in
weather modification activities, and not just to those
whose
programs
are
discussed
in
detail in this report,
The principles are:
1.
2.
3.
There
is
sufficient potential payoff indicated
by the results of past research
to
justify
continuing basic and applied research in
the
area
of weather modification.
The
potential dollar savings in lessening
the
destructive
effects
of
weather, and the poten-
tial gains
in
enhancing the beneficial effects,
are
so
great that expenditures of appreciable
dollars on weather modification research and
application can
be
justified.
There
is
a need for
a
single agency to assume
responsibility
for
taking
the
lead
in
developing
a well-rounded national program
of
research on
7
do
everything
itself
for everybody: rather,
it
should build judiciously upon the activities,
capabilities, and'mission responsibilities of
the various participating agencies.
8.
A
formal
procedure must
be
developed
to
achieve
continuing visibility and coordination of the
total
weather
modification
program.
9:
There
must
be
regulation and control
of
weather
modification activities, especially as those
activities increase
in
magnitude and frequency
and
become
international in scope.
This
is
required especially to provide
a
mechanism for
protection against harmful consequences
of
weather
modification activity but alse
te
permit valid experimentation.
OBSERVATIONS
I
found
that
the
budget figures in the
ICAS
select
Panel Report
did
not reflect the current status of
agency program analysis and planning.
of
growth in
the
select
Panel
Report
were
unrealistically
high, in
some
cases
by a factor
of
two
or
more.
Indicated
rates
8
As
well
as
I
could determine,
the
various agencies
are counting
in
large measure on using the same people
at various contractors and universities to help carry
out the planned programs.
ESSA
appears to have the
kind
and
quantities of people required to mount
a
vigorous program
in
weather modification research,
but
the
ability to build up program activity at anything
like
the proposed rates would depend upon whether these people
can actually be reassigned from their present duties.
In
general there was a large disparity between projected
manpower availabilities and requirements. This serves to
emphasize that proposed rates of program growth are
indeed too high, and also that a vigorous effort should
be made to increase the total national competence
in
the
weather modification
field.
There are a
few
areas of sufficient immediate promise
to
warrant moving ahead on experimental operational
pro-
grams. One
is
the seeding of orographic clouds
in
western
areas to augment water precipitation for increasing water
supply. Another
is
the seeding of dry, shallow storms
in
the
Rocky
Mountain regions for suppression of the
kind
of
lightning that causes forest fires.
In
other
areas
it
appears too early at the present time to under-
take operational applications of weather modification.
What
is
needed at the present
time
and for the immediate
future
is
a program of research, including some field
programs, directed toward understanding the physics and
dynamics
of
weather systems to provide a scientific
basis
for
further experimentation
in
weather modification.
9
In general, the proposed program content for
all
four agencies appears sound, being based
on
assessments
of
potential practical returns,
or
on a recognition
of
the
need for research. Except for questions of undesirable
duplication,
my
criticism
lies
not
in the
subject
con-
tent
of
proposed programs, but rather in the areas of
program phasing, proposed rates
of
growth, and the
validity of dollar
estimates.
11
in
the
meantime, these may
be
taken
as
indicating my
judgment
as
to
reasonable
orders
of magnitude.
Department of Aqriculture Proqram
I
believe
that
a
weather
modification
program
of
about
$600K
in FY 1967' growing
to
$7M in FY 1970
is
justifiable. About half of the FY 1970 figure
is
for
facilities, including purchase and
operation
of
small
aircraft
and
a
much needed research laboratory.
research yet
to
be
done
shows
a mission-oriented
program
in
hail
suppression
to
be
warranted,
the
FY 1970
figure
could
be
larger.
If
The Department of Agriculture
program,
projected
through FY 1970, can
be
considered in
terms
cf
two
najcr
categories
:
1.
Direct
modification of
weather
2.
Ecological and supporting
research
These
relate
in
the
main
to
the
suppression of
specific
harmful effects of
weather
phenomena, and
a
study of
the
effects of
weather
modification upon farm and
forest
crops
and on land management
in
general.
The direct weather modification portion of
the
program
includes primarily an expanded lightning suppres-
sion effort and
a
new effort directed toward
hail
sup-
pression, the Department
states:
"Project Skyfire
of
the
U.S.
Forest
Service
is
performing
an
active
research
program
aimed
at
suppression of lightning
which
causes
some
10,000 forest fires annually in
the
United States.
A
field
experiment
is
testing the effects of very heavy
seeding
with
silver iodide on lightning
storms.
The
results
to
date
show
a
32
percent reduction
in
cloud-
to-ground lightning from seeded
storms.
A
specially
instrumented field
area
utilizing
three
radars and
a
network
of
lightning sensor stations
is
used for
the
13
3.
4.
5.
The concentration of research on determining
the seeding effects on lightning discharges
having long continued current portions.
Evidence now available indicates that these
hybrid discharges are
of
major importance in
igniting forest fuels.
Continued research in the development of high
output silver iodide smoke generators and in
the development
of
seeding systems for use in
forest protection.
Continued research in the development
of
a
lightning fire intelligence system including
storm tracking, discharge measurements, and
lightning risk evaluation in the fc?rest
fire
danger rating program.
Most of the Agriculture budget is to support the
above program, and includes
all
necessary facilities
such
as
observational networks, operation and acquisi-
tion of research aircraft, cloud seeding equipment,
radar, and
a
special laboratory for lightning studies.
These facilities and the increased efforts they support
represent, in my opinion, realistic growth.
There is at the present no substantial Department
of Agriculture effort in hail suppression. The Depart-
ment states: "The Department of Agriculture research
program in hail suppression is in an embryo stage. The
main activity is preliminary planning of a long range
research program.
'I*
The Department of Agriculture's miss ion responsi-
bilities for crop protection were well documented and
defined to the Panel, and are the basis for an active
*United States Department
of
Agriculture, Summary of
Weather Modification Research Program presented on
June
28,
1966.
14
interest in
hail
suppression.
were
submitted, however,
to
justify undertaking
a
large-
scale program
at
this
time.
are
inadequate
for
defining
a
valid
program
to
apply
hail
suppression techniques
to
such applications
as
crop protection.
No
scientific
details
Scientific results
to
date
I
recommend against
the
expansion
of
Agriculture's
hail
suppression
efforts
beyond
a
modest
effort
for
the
time
being.
I
recommend that the Environmental Science
Services Administration, in
close
cooperation
with
the
Department
of
Agriculture,
take
the
lead
in the develop-
ment and conduct
of
a
program
to
understand the
basic
physics of hail-producing storms, and
of
hail-suppression
mechanisms.
I
recommend
that,
as
the
necessary scientific
rationale
is
developed, the Department
of
Agriculture
take
the lead in conducting
large-scale
field
experiments in
hail suppression, particularly in the western plains
area
where
hail
damage
to
agriculture
is
most
severe. Should
this become achievable in the 1970
time
period,
the
total
Department
of
Agriculture weather modification budget
for
FY
1970 would have
to
be
larger
than the
$7M
indicated
earlier
.
The
ecological and supporting
research
portion
of
the
program includes
three areas:
biological
responses
to
weather modification, boundary-layer energy exchange,
and remote sensing in support
of
weather
modification.
At
present,
there
is
little
work
under way in
the
first
area, and only
modest,
early
efforts
exist in
the
last
two.
I
feel
that Agriculture's experience and in-house
capabilities
in such
areas
as
ecology, boundary-layer
energy exchange, and
basic
research
in support
of
their
excellent lightning suppression program require augmenta-
tion. These
efforts
are
pertinent
to
a
program
of
weather
modification research and application, and
are
otherwise
part
of
the
Agriculture mission. In
some
regards,
however,
I
do
have
concern.
Field
observations
related
to
changes
15
in
species
brought about through
weather
modification, for
example, involve
considerable
uncertainties relative
to
the
specific
results
of
weather modification.
It
is
very
important,
theref
ore,
to establish early
the
necessary
baseline
data
for
later
comparisons and analyses.
Similarly,
a
program in boundary layer effects generated
through weather modification must
deal
with difficulties
of
establishing firmly
a
true cause-and-effect relation-
ship.
I
conclude that
the
budget submission by Agricul-
ture for
research
in
the
ecological and supporting
research
portions
of
the
program
is
in
excess
of
the
present
capability.
these
fundamental
areas
is
desirable and should
be
supported.
Nevertheless,
I
feel
that
growth
in
Department
of
Interior
Proqram
I
recommend
a
Department of Interior budget for
weather modification activities
of
about
$3M
in
FY
1967
growing
to
about
$35M
in
FY
1970, including needed
facilities and operation.
The
main thrust
of
Interior's
program
is
in the
area
of
precipitation augmentation.
The
Department
of
Interior
has
been assigned national
water
resource management responsibilities, and thus an
effort
in the exploitation and utilization
of
the
water
resource
is
clearly an Interior mission and
is
in the
national interest.
The
singular objective
of
Interior's
Atmospheric
Water
Resources Program
has
been
to
ascertain the techni-
cal
and economic feasibility
of
increasing
the
water
supply
for
Bureau
of
Reclamation projects through
weather modification.
Research
results
to
date show
sufficient
promise
that
the program has been reoriented
to
reflect
the eventual
goal
of
the
"effective,
16
beneficial utilization
of
the
nation's atmospheric
water
resources.
'I*
The
program
to
gate
has included, appropriately,
cloud-seeding efforts,
research
involving
the
acquisi-
tion
of
field data in
all
the
experimental
areas,
and
climatology.
Interior's
program
has
concentrated on
a
number of
field experiments in
the
western
states.
A
program
at
the University
of
Wyoming devoted
to
the study
of
cap
clouds has produced amounts of
water
which
appear
to
offer
promise
of economic significance. Interior's
Basin program ranges
from
theoretical
studies
of
cloud
physics to actual modification operations, and includes
the
development of instrumentation and data acquisition
systems.
The
Southern
Sierra
program has studied the
effec-
tiveness of cloud seeding
in
that specialized
area.
The
Pacific Northwest program has included experiments
on shifting precipitation from
areas
of
surplus
to
areas
of
deficit.
In Washington and Oregon
the
windward slopes
of
coastal mountains receive
large
amounts
of
precipita-
tion,
the
run-off of
which
returns
to
the
ocean unused.
Farther inland, there
are
areas
where
the precipitation
is
less
than one tenth
as
great.
If
it
were
possible
to
shift some
of
the
lost precipitation,
the
economic
benefit would
be
great.
The
research program submitted by Interior to
ICAS
reflects quite
well
all
areas
of study
that
will
be
required to support proposed intensive field experiments
*Plans for the Department of Interior's Atmospheric
Water Resources Program, presented
to
ICAS
on
May
13,
1966.
17
in
precipitation augmentation such
as
those mentioned
above.
I
conclude that the program
is
soundly based,
is
being competently carried out,
is
of
benefit
to the
country, and should
be
continued.
I
feel
that
the
proposed rates
of
growth exceed Interior's in-house
and potential contractor capability and
I
recommend the
lower
rate
of
growth for
this
research
area
correspond-
ing to
the
budget figures given
above.
The
supporting budget material
submitted
to the
Panel discussed
the
establishment
of
field laboratories
which would include the following necessary facilities:
radar and rawinsonde installations, balloon inflation
shelters, repair shops, airports, temporary housing,
etc.
I
feel
that the establishment of an extensive
~ets-mrk
of
such
field
stations
is
appropriate technically
and eventually should
be
accomplished within
the
Depart-
ment
of Interior's mission.
I
estimate
that
not
more
than
ten
field
sites
are consistent with
the
apparent poten-
tialities of the Department-of
Interior
through
the
FY
1970
time
period. The cost per
field
site
as deduced
from the material provided by
Interior
is
approximately
2%
million dollars including such equipment
items
as
weather radar, rawinsondes, telemetry
sets,
tracer
dispensers, and
a
total
of
about eight twin engine
air-
craft
for the
ten
field
sites.
This equipment
is
representative of the proposed
site
implementation
set
forth
in
the
material supplied
by
Interior.
I
recommend that Interior collaborate
with
ESSA
in
accomplishing Interior's
mission
of augmenting precipita-
tion in
the
eastern or northeastern sector of
the
country.
I
believe that
there
are
significant advantages to
Interior's developing a
firm,
clearly defined agreement
with
ESSA
to accomplish this collaborative effort. Such
an arrangement would spread the base
of
the government's
experience
in
this
field.
It
would permit
ESSA
to
integrate
the
precipitation augmentation activity
with
a broader program of research
on
the physics and
18
dynamics
of
weather
modification and with weather
research
in
general. Also,
it
would provide Interior
with
valuable assistance in
its
important
water'
resources program.
If
such
a
collaboration with
ESSA
is
arranged,
ESSA's
assistance may
permit
acceleration
of
the
precipitation augmentation program, which in
turn would require earlier increases in
the
Interior
budget
than
are
indicated
in
the curve of App.
VI.
The
collaboration recommended above
is
one example
of how
two
agencies may profitably work together
to
achieve their respective goals.
It
may
be
expected that
many
such opportunities
will
arise
in
the weather
modification program, and full advantage should
be
taken
of those opportunities. The development
and
operation of
a
large-scale
weather
simulation facility
will
benefit
from multiagency collaboration
in
its
design
and
use.
Although
I
recommend below that
ESSA
be
the prime mover
in
the
area
of
severe
storm
modification,
it
is
recognized
that Interior
and
Agriculture have
an
ultimate
interest
here, and one can
foresee
the possibility
of
collaborative
efforts among
ESSA,
Interior, and Agriculture.
Like
the
Department of Agriculture,
the
Department of
Interior has an
interest
in
and concern
with
the ecological
effects of
weather
modification.
In
planning for programs
in atmospheric
water
resources, the Department
is
includ-
ing provision for appropriate studies
in
this
area.
ESSA
Proqram
I
recommend
a
weather
modification
budget for
ESSA
of about
$1.5M
in
FY
1967, rising to about
$25M
in
FY 1970.
I
support the program content, but question
the proposed
rate
of
growth to
$20M
in
FY
1968.
While
ESSA
demonstrated the necessary diversity
of
in-house
talent,
I
am
unable to judge whether
ESSA
is
able
to
reassign
all
the needed personnel from other areas
to
the weather modification effort.
19
The proposed
ESSA
program is a broad research and
development effort of significant magnitude and content.
It covers the many areas that must be understood to
attack and solve the problem
of
attaining beneficial
weather control. The following technical areas, from
a list provided by
ESSA,
illustrate the breadth
of
the
proposed effort: cloud physics; atmospheric electricity;
statistical design and evaluation; hurricane structure
and modification; severe local storm structure; atmos-
pheric contamination; inadvertent modification; computer
modeling; global cloud analysis, primarily satellite
work; drought and climatic variations: atmosphere
radiation and heat balance; sea/air interaction;
transport and diffusion plume tracing; specialized
instrument development: hydrometeorology; socio-
economics
;
and ecology.
I
believe that a broad research and development
effort of the general content of the proposed
ESSA
program is essential to a significant national weather
modification effort.
I
recommend that
ESSA
have the
responsibility for the research and development that
is essential
to
a viable national weather modification
program,
supplementing and integrating the research
programs of the mission-oriented agencies. But,
I
recommend that
ESSA
not duplicate the programs
of
the
mission-oriented agencies discussed above, and the
basic research programs of
NSF
discussed below.
I
strongly support the
ESSA
mission responsibility in
areas such as severe storm suppression, hurricane
modification, and large-scale long-range atmospheric
modeling.
The following areas are considered essential for
establishing the broad base of research necessary for
the national weather modification effort.
tions given below were extracted from the material
provided by
ESSA.
The recommended funding permits
inclusion
of
these activities
in
the
ESSA
program.
The descrip-
20
1.
Modification
of
Winter
Lake
Storms: These
storms
form in early winter when shallow continental
cold
air
blows
across
the
unfrozen lakes, picking up
moisture from the warm water surface.
The
local
character
of
the
storm would permit over-seeding and
redistribution
of
the
precipitation.
'
2.
Modification of Colloidal Stability:
An
attempt would
be
made
to
seed tropical
maritime
clouds
with condensation nuclei in order
to
increase their
colloidal stability and to prevent rain. This activity
may enter a semi-operational
state
during
FY
1972.
3.
AqI
Diffusion:
This
project supplements
the
research under
item
1
above.
It
is
believed that
the
vertical diffusion of AgI can
be
studied in the winter
in
the
Great
Lakes
Region during presence
of
extended
supercooled cloud layers.
AgI
will
be
generated
in
great concentrations
at
the surface.
The
analysis
of
its
effect on the cloud deck
will
be
done by
radar.
4.
Cumulus
Dynamics:
This
is
part of Project
Storm Fury.
It
involves
the
continued study of cumulus
dynamics by
means
of the
release
of
heat
of fusion
through seeding with pyrotechnics.
A
two-year cycle of
randomized field experimentation
is
foreseen in
the
Barbados
Island
area, which permits study of both
maritime
and continental clouds.
5.
Hail Suppression: Several approaches
are
contemplated:
(a) a
field project to study hailstone
structure
to
determine
where
in
the cloud
the
hailstone
originated,
(b)
airborne studies of hailstorms to
assess the relative significance of mothercloud and
anvil in
the
hail
process, and
(c)
radar studies
to
analyze further the "anatomy"
of
the
hailstorm.
Areas
of activity
will
be
Norman, Oklahoma;
Boulder, Colorado: and Flagstaff, Arizona.
21
6.
Inadvertent Modification: Inadvertent modifica-
tion of
the
weather occurs because of pollution
of
the
atmosphere by
artificial
gaseous and particulate constitu-
ents, and changes in surface character and albedo due
tc?
agriculture and construction. The
effects
of
air
pollution
become apparent in
three
areas:
optics, and electricity, all of which
are
studied in
this
program.
atmospheric chemistry,
(a)
Benchmark
Proqram:
The
concentration of
atmospheric constituents, naturally
and
artificially
generated,
will
be
measured at various locations. The
Mauna
Loa
Observatory and the Boulder stations
will
take
part
in
the full program. Other stations may
be
selected
in
the
Eastern
U.S.
and in
the
northern and
southern hemispheres.
monitoring
03
and
C02
contents. The
first
phase
will
concern
itself
with the development of
a
CO2
monitoring
method. Eventually, the concentrations of sulphates,
nitrates,
chlorides,
and
biological contaminants
will
also
be
monitored.
The program
will
begin
by
(b)
Albedo, turbidity, radiation, aerosols
:
It
is
planned to
start
on
a
systematic research program
to study these parameters.
(c)
Atmospheric electric
parameters:
It
is
planned to study
the
electrical parameters (potential
gradient, conductivity, air-earth current)
of
the
un-
disturbed
weather
using radiosondes
already developed.
These
parameters may prove to
be
a powerful
tool
for
monitoring natural and artificial
air
pollution.
7.
Study of Rain and Snow Precipitation: The
importance of
the
concentration
of
precipitation
particles for effective rainout must
be
studied.
It
is
planned to conduct field experiments using radar, and
raindrop spectrometers, and to develop theoretical
precipitation models.
Research
under
this project
wi
11
probably require
many years.
22
8.
Laboratory Studies:
A
number of in-house studies
are
planned:
(a)
Construction of a fluid
model
for the study
of influx characteristics into tornadic storms.
(b)
Nucleation studieg
:
Studies
are
planned
to learn
more
about
the
action of silver iodide
as
a
freezing or as
a
sublimation nucleus, and about
its
aging under irradiation by the sun.
studies, various
other
nucleating agents, such
as
lead
oxide,
will
be
investigated. This may
lead
to the discovery
of
less
expensive
materials
with
a
dispersability equivalent
to
AgI
,
and
usable
in pyrotechnic dispensers.
In
addition
to
these
9.
Water Budget of Storms:
Little
is
known
of
the
water
budget
of
extratropical
storms.
Elliott, and
Atlas,
and by Wexler indicate that
water
storage
occurs in such
storms
and
that
therefore chances
of
rain augmentation exist.
however
are
missing.
The
same
is
true of convective
storms.
an analysis exist (by Braham), while
the
water
budget
of hailstorms or tornados
is
unknown. One analysis of
the influx of
air
into
these
storms gave values of more
than
100
cubic
kilometers
in one minute.
Analyses by Bradbury,
Systematic investigations
Only for the
case
of
air
mass
thunderstorms does
Plans
call
for
a
diversified approach. In the
initial phase the
total
precipitable
water
will
be
studied
using
a
network of existing
U.S.
weather instruments.
This study
will
be
designed to furnish
the
influx of
vapor across
the
shores of
the
Gulf of Mexico
for
certain
weather situations, or
from
the
Gulf of California, for
instance, for the short period of
the
summer monsoon
which
is
so
important to Arizona. The second phase
calls
for
a
meteorologic analytic study
of
the
water
budget
of
storms,
supplemented by aircraft and radiosonde
network data collection.
23
10.
Fair weather Cumulus Studies: There has been
considerable progress in computer modeling of cumulus
convection. Further progress requires the input
of
data measured inside cumulus clouds. It is intended to
initiate a program of in-cloud measurements using novel
instrumentation,
Temperature will be measured using
remote IR techniques from the penetrating aircraft: other
parameters, e.g. updraft and liquid content, will be
measured as instrumentation is developed.
11.
Atmospheric Chemistry: This project
is
geared
to the application of chemical analysis methods to atmos-
pheric physics. It is intended to measure, record, and
analyze the chemical constituents
of
clouds, rain, and
other precipitation. Ion conductivity, pH value, and ion
identity, are some of the parameters which will be recorded
at mountain stations as well as on aircraft.
12.
Instrument Development: Instruments must be
developed to perform over the whole range of atmospheric
parameters for use in aircraft
as
well as on the ground.
Other equally important areas of investigation will
arise as the entire program gets moving. I believe that
projects in the above areas of basic research can now
be
implemented and are within the technical capability
of ESSA.
An important recommendation of the National Academy
of Sciences was "the early establishment of several care-
fully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, planned
in
such a way as to permit assessment of the seedability
of a variety of storm types."* One of these should be in
the eastern sector of the
U.S.
As
noted above under the
*Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate
Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,
National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council;
"Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects,
volume
I-
SUImtary and Recommendations, Publication
No.
13508
1966,
pg
23.
24
section
on
Interior,
I
propose that Interior collaborate
with
ESSA
on
a
large-scale field program in precipitation
augmentation in the eastern or northeastern section
in
keeping with
the
concept that
the
Department of
Interior
has mission responsibility
in
water resources enhancement
while
ESSA
should conduct a broad program of exploratory
research into
the
potentials and scientific
bases
for
weather modification.
A
very important reason that
ESSA
undertake this work with Interior under a memorandum of
understanding
is
so
that
ESSA
may integrate this activity
with their broader program
of
research on the physics and
dynamics of
weather,
The
ESSA
ongoing efforts
in
severe storms and
hurricane research, and
the
development and use of the
Norman,
Oklahoma,
facility, should
be
augmented
at
about
the
rate
proposed by
ESSA.
The
National Severe Storms Laboratory
(NSSL)
has
a
comprehensive observational facility used to
define
better the conditions which spawn severe storms, the
local circulations which
are
the
storm, and
the
associated
budgets
of
water
substance and energy, During the
observational
period
April-June 1966,
this
included
calibrated Doppler and conventional radars, networks of
56 surface
weather
stations,
175
raingages,
10
radio-
sonde stations provided by the
U.
S.
Air
Force and the
U.
S.
Army, and a 1600-foot instrumented television
tower, cloud
cameras,
and several instrumented aircraft
of
ESSA
and USAF.
A
lightning locating system
is
under
development also, in order that the
electrical
energy
of
storms
can
be
correlated
with
tornado development
and
the
distribution
of
precipitation revealed by radar.
ESSA
feels
that
a
more accurate description of the
storms
can
be
obtained by interpretation of
the
observa-
tions
in
light
of constraining principles of
mass
continuity
and
energy conservation
or
conversion,
25
In addition to theoretical studies
and
data analysis,
some
important present and planned efforts are:
Round-the-clock radar surveillance and
data
recording. This should provide means
for determining associations among severe
storm occurrences
and
topography,
time
of
day, season, and synoptic meteorological
parameters,
and
will
provide
a
body of
con-
trol
data for
the
better
evaluation of
attempts by
NSSL
and other agencies to
.modify Oklahoma storms.
Continued development
of
computer programs
for
processing the voluminous
radar
and
mesonet-
work
data.
Installation of
additional
mesonetwork surface
stations between existing ones now
located
10
to
15
miles
apart. Additional
stations
are
needed
to
record
adequately the
scales
of motion
characteristic of
severe
storms.
Construction of
a
l0cm-Doppler radar for
improved velocity measuring capability
at
longer range.
Development of improved means for
direct
digital
recording and processing of conventional and
Doppler radar data.
Scientists
at
the National Hurricane Research Labora-
tory,
Miami,
Florida, and cooperating groups
are
studying
the hurricane and
its
environment, and other tropical
circulations that either may become
a
hurricane
or
affect
the development of one.
The
following discussion furnished
by
ESSA
gives the rationale for the hurricane
research
program.
We
can now
describe
the
structure of
a
mature
hurricane in
great
detail and can even
estimate
probable variations in the structure
with
time
in
the
same
hurricane
or
between
hurricanes.
Our
knowledge of
the
structure
of developing and dissipating tropical
cyclones
is
less
complete, but even in
these
cases many data have been collected
and analyzed.
Great
advances have been
made
in
recent
years
in
developing mathematical models
of
hurricanes.
The
most advanced of these
models
is
now being used for partially
evaluating simple modification hypotheses.
In
spite
of
all
the progress that has
been
made
in hurricane research
in
recent years,
much needs to
be
done
before
we
can
(1)
gain
an adequate understanding of many
details
of
the
energy processes in hurricanes,
(2)
satis-
factorily explain or predict the formation
and intensification of tropical cyclones, or
(3)
develop
realistic
and accurate dynamical
numerical models
of
hurricanes.
When
we
can simulate
a
hurricane
with
a good
numerical model
we
will
have accomplished
a
major breakthrough in the efforts
to
find
a
technique for modifying
these
storms.
Two
of the major
deficiencies
in the hurricane
models
currently being
tested
are
the
mathematical formulations both for
the
friction layer
and
for
the
transfer of
energy
between
the
earth
and
the
atmosphere
and
through the lower layers of
the
atmos-
phere.
of
these
processes
is
greatly improved,
it
is
doubtful
if
we
will
be
able to simulate
a
hurricane
with
a
truly satisfactory
numerical model.
Until our knowledge and understanding
We would have
a
better chance of developing
good mathematical formulations for the
hurricane friction layer and for the transfer
of energy
if
we
had the right kind of data
for testing the formulations that are proposed,
We need to know the rate and means of the
transfer of momentum, sensible heat,
and
water
vapor with
its
latent heat. We should be able
to determine these
things
if
we had good
measurements of the vertical and horizontal
wind
components, temperature, and humidity at
a
number of levels
from
sea level up through
the
first
few thousand feet of atmosphere.
These data are needed
for
the turbulent as well
as the larger scales
of
motion.
Efforts to acquire a
better
understanding
of
the genesis process, and
to
develop techniques
for predicting hurricane formation and further
intensification are likewise handicapped by
lack of data. This
is
due
to the fact that
the favored genesis areas are outside the
conventional data networks, Some of the needed
data can be obtained by research aircraft.
Collection of these data could be greatly
accelerated, however, with more aircraft of
greater range. The improved weather satellites
are already helping
this
data collection effort
and the synchronous satellite should be of
great assistance.
experiment and the improved data collection
efforts proposed for the World Weather Watch
will
also be useful.
It
is
hoped that the tropical
Along
with
the increased efforts at specialized
collection, there should be more theoretical
investigations.
the
study
of
the hurricane
but
also
the
other
circulations
in
the tropics.
It
is
unlikely
that
we
will
ever fully understand the hurricane
until
we have a better understanding of
its
environment.
These should include
not
only
28
As
a
note of caution,
I
feel a point should
be
made
on the complexity of the proposed research.
As
illustrated
by
current
progress with Project storm Fury, the proba-
bility
of acquiring a hurricane for modification purp0se.c
at
this
time
seems
to
be
about three storms every
two
years. Indeed, current efforts have yet
to
acquire thc
first
such storm
well
into the second year of operation.
For
hurricane
studies and possible modification, expensive
facilities such
as
flight
research
aircraft
are
required
on
a
seasonal
basis,
with the understanding that natural
variance in the
desired
weather pattern prohibits a
prediction
of
how long such research must
be
continued
before meaningful results
can
be
expected.
I
recommend that the proposed effort by
ESSA
in
the
areas
of
severe storm and hurricane research
be
supported
and
pursued
vigorously.
NSF
Proqram
I
recommend an increase in the National Science
Foundation
(NSF)
weather modification budget
to
about
$5M
in
FY
1967, growing to
$20M
in
FY
1970. The
FY
1970 figure
includes
$10M
for the construction of a large-scale simula-
tion facility for
basic
research in cloud physics to
be
erected
and operated by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research
JNCAR),
If planning for the facility moves rapidly,
some of the
$10M
might
be
needed
earlier
than
FY
1970.
The National Science Foundation proposes to increase
the
support of
basic
and closely associated applied research
which
is
appropriate and fundamental to any program of
weather
modification. The
NSF
program should
be
directed
toward three important objectives:
(1)
the establishment
of a sound scientific foundation for an intensified program
of weather modification,
(2)
the
substantial involvement
of
universities in this
area
of research, and
(3)
the produc-
tion of substantial numbers of new highly trained people for
this work.
NSF
does not plan to and
"will
not duplicate
29
research
performed by mission agencies, but
will
support
research in those multi-discipline
areas
which
will
supplement or extend other weather modification research
already underway and
will
develop the nation's resources
of knowledge and manpower in new and imaginative areas.""
The
NSF
research program
to
be
conducted primarily
at universities and
NCAR
will
include the following
areas
of
research:
1.
Cloud Dynamics:
Basic
studies
will
be
continued
on
the
motions of
clouds,
and
the
effects upon their
growth
or
decay produced by
the
release
or
absorption of
the heat
of
condensation and heat of fusion which may
be
produced
or
induced by natural
or
artificial stimulus.
These
stuLies
will
be
carried
on
through actual observa-
tions
of
clouds in their natural environment,
in
simcla-
tion
chambers
in
the
laboratory, or by theoretical models
using high speed computers.
2.
Ice
Formation in Clouds:
The
role
of
the
formation
of
ice
in clouds
in
producing raindrop formation
will
be
intensively studied. The mechanism whereby
atmospheric nuclei, both natural and artificial, become
effective
in
freezing supercooled droplets
will
be
further
studied, and
the
importance of
this
process in competition
with
coalescence and sublimation
will
be
assessed.
The
means whereby
ice
crystals grow
to
hailstone size
in
severe storms
will
also receive attention, especially
as
it
relates
to possible control mechanisms.
3.
Coalescence:
The
process whereby cloud particles
combine to
form
raindrops in
warm
clouds
will
be
studied.
The relationship
of
this process
to
the quantity and
effectiveness
of
natural or artificially introduced
condensation nuclei
will
be
observed using airborne
*
"Critique by
Presenter"
enclosure
to
June
28,
1966,
NSF
letter
to
Homer
E.
Newell
signedby
P.H.
Wyckoff, Program
Director
for
Weather
Modification.
31
monopolize
a
major source of qualified personnel that the
other agency programs must rely on.
I
recommend, therefore,
a
funding level for NSF sufficient to support
about
half of
what
NSF
estimates to
be
the total capacity of the
academic community in the
area
of
weather modification
in
addition to activities
at
NCAR.
This level of support
would clearly permit
NSF
to
fund programs adequately that
are
now being
"stretched"
and
would
provide the stimulus
needed to
better
satisfy the
NSF
program stated
above.
I
recommend
further, because
of
the fundamental importance
of
achieving the
three
objectives
as
early
as
possible,
that
the
NSF
budget
be
increased immediately to
the
levels
suggested above.
Capital
Facilities
I
support, in general,
the
agency proposals
for extensive capital facilities which
are
necessary
to
carry out research and development as
well
as
operational missions. Such facilities include aircraft,
extensive field installations consisting of meteorological
sensor networks and data analysis facilities, large
laboratory installations (cloud chambers,
etc.),
and high-
speed, large-capacity digital computers for
modeling
of
atmospheric processes. Allocation of facilities should
be based on the following principles:
1.
If
a
major facility serves
a
special mission-
oriented purpose and full-time
use
can
be
juskified for that purpose,
the
facility should
be
established and operated by the specific
element
of
the agency charged with
that
mission.
For
example:
Small
aircraft
and
field
sites
fully used
by
the Department
of
Agriculture in
their lightning suppression mission should
be
established and operated by
the
Department of
Agriculture as part
of
that
mission.
In
general,
32
radiosonde balloons,
small-scale
laboratory and
computing facilities, and individual aircraft
should
be
contained in
the
specific
missions
where they
are
needed.
These considerations
are
reflected
in my con-
clusions and recommendations
set
forth in
the
preceding sections,
2.
If
a
facility
is
not used
for
one specific
mission, but can
be
justified on
a
full-time
use
basis
for
general
weather
modification
purposes
by
one single agency,
that
agency
should
establish
and operate
the
facility.
For
example:
I
support the establishment and
operation
of
appropriate aircraft and
facilities
by
the
Department of Interior
to
execute
their
precipi-
tation augmentation mission,
I
also
support
the
ulti-
mate establishment by
ESSA
of
a
general purpose
fleet
of
aircraft
for
use in that agency's diversified
R&D
and
mission programs.
3.
If
a
facility
is
for
general-purpose use, but
is
so
extensive that full-time use cannot
be
justified by
a
single
agency, then the use of the
facility
will
have to
be
shared by
the
agencies
and
the responsibility for
its
establishment and
operation should
be
assigned on
a
case-by-case
basis.
Specifically,
the
major
field
sites,
large
cloud
chambers,
large-scale
computers, and
large-scale
integrated
flying laboratories
fall
into this
category
.
33
In assigning responsibility for these facilities
consideration also should be given to their use
by individual agencies for purposes other than
weather modification.
I
recommend that
ESSA's
proposed program for
field facilities, in addition to the Norman,
Oklahoma facility, be conducted with due regard
for the mission needs of the Department of
Interior. Specifically, the first step in this
expansion should be a general purpose field
facility
in
the Northeastern United States.
ESSA should establish and operate the site not
only for
ESSA's
research, but also in collaboration
with the Department
of
the Interior, and the
facility should be shared between at least thzse
two agencies.
The development
of
an understanding of the basic
physics
of
cloud formation, dynamics, and
dissipation is of prime importance in determining
the nechanisms that can be used to modify clouds
and cloud systems.
As
a weather simulation
facility, the very large cloud chamber
holds
promise to be a powerful tool for such investiga-
tions. At the
same
time, prudence dictates that some
experience be obtained with one.such chamber before
any consideration is given
to
the construction of
othcrs. Because such a facility bears a very strong
relationship
to
university research programs and
the training of research talent,
I
recommend that
such a facility be established and operated by the
National Center for Atmospheric Research under
NSF sponsorship. On the other hand, because of
the importance
to
other agencies
of
the research
to be done with the cloud chamber,
I
recommend
that
NSF
associate the other agencies with NSF
in the planning and design of the chamber,and
in its use after construction.
34
The present-day operation in modeling techniques
and
numerical forecasting procedures indicates
.
that a large-scale, yet to
be
developed, computer
may well
be
required.
The
planning of industry
in
regard
to
large computers needs
to
be
known.
Also,
the
basic
research
of the programs
recom-
mended
earlier
in
this
report should clarify
the role
of
such computers, and may indeed
re-
move some
of
the need for them.
Here
again,
however,
I
recommend
a
careful planning phase.
I
also recommend that
ESSA
should
establish
and
operate large-scale digital computers for the
purpose
of
applying atmospheric circulation models
to weather modification.
It
is
expected that
establishment and operation of
these
computing
facilities could
be
funded
at
least
partially
by,
and
shared with, other programs within
ESSA.
While
I
feel
that
a
large mobile flight facility, for
both weather and weather modification research
is
important to
the
long range development of these
fields,
I
am
unable to determine at this
time
what
would
be
a
reasonable program for the establishment
of such
a
facility.
I
believe
it
would
be
wise
to
follow
a
step-by-step process of arriving
at
an
optinum large-scale flight facility,
in
which
the
development and use by
individual agencies of their
own
necessary
smaller-scale
flight
facilities
would
be
v3luable
learning
steps.
I
feel
that
the
latter
should
not
be
neglected in the haste
to
bring
a
large-scale facility into being.
I
recommend
that work toward the large-scale flight facility
remain largely in the study and planning stage
for the
time
being.
35
Coordination and Reportinq
As
indicated
by
the
present early planning, research
and applications of weather modification are broad and
varied
in
scope, and have the
interest
of many agencies.
Even at this stage coordination
is
imperative, and with
the passage
of
time coordination
will
become ever more
important to sound planning and effective execution
of the program.
It
is
clear
tliat
research and applica-
tions of weather modification are closely related to
meteorological services and supporting research; indeed,
it
would be an artificiality to attempt to separate them.
Hence,
I
recommend that the Federal Coordinator, who
already has responsibility for coordination and reporting
in
this area of meteorology, undertake coordination
of
the
Natj.ona1 Weather Modification Program in addition to the
coordination of national activities in meteorology;
By
"coordination"
I
mean largely "correlation,
including documenting and tabulating
in
one place, and
analyzing existing government program activity, pro-
viding for all concerned a continuing visibility of the
whole national weather modification effort.
It
is
intended to assign the same kind of responsibility
in
weather modification that the Federal Coordinator now
has for meteorology. Such a
well
organized program of
central correlation of program activities may
be
expected
to lead to agreements and arrangements among the agencies
on such things as joint purchase of materials and equip-
ments, common support and use
of
facilities, joint field
operations, elimination
of
undesirable duplications
in
the
establishment of observing nets, etc.
It
is
not intended
to give the Federal Coordinator responsibility for program
planning or control. These would continue to be the
responsibilities of the operating agencies and under the
review of
ICAS.
The overall result would be an effectively
coordinated program.
36
I
also
feel that the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorology should
be
assigned the task
of
preparing
and submitting an annual report on national weather
modification activities. This reporting assignment
is
at present by law given
to
the National Science
Foundation.
I
believe that
it
is
desirable to relieve
NSF
of
this
burden.
For
one
thing, the principal
future
of
weather modification activities
is
directed
toward applied research and operations,
which are not
and should not
be
in
the mainstream of
NSF's
responsi-
bilities
for basic research. Secondly, as has already
been pointed out, weather modification research and
operations are inextricably interwoven with meteoro-
logical service and supporting research. Requiring the
Federal Coordinator for Meteorology to report on the
national weather modification effort, therefore, appears
to
be a natural step.
Requlation and Control
As
brought out clearly by the NSF Special Commission
Reports
(Refs.
2
and
3),
the subject
of
regulation and
control
in
weather modification
is
a complex and urgent
one.
I
do not feel that
I
can recommend a specific
organization to be assigned the responsibility for
regulation and control
of
weather modification activi-
ties.
I
do,
however, have a few related recommendations.
I
feel very strongly that the regulating body
must
not
be
one of the operating agencies participating
in
the National Weather Modification Program.
To
assign
this responsibility to one
of
these agencies would
immediately generate conflicts of interest, sow the
seeds
of
dissension, and doom the efforts at regulation
and control to endless frEstration.
37
I
feel
that
the regulating body should not
be
the
Interdepartmental
Committee
for Atmospheric
Sciences
(ICAS).
In my view, the regulation and control function
will
be
a full-time
task
for
a
modest staff
of
people,
particularly,
as
the national weather modification effort
increases and
as
activities
become
international
in
scope.
ICAS
is
in
no position to undertake such
a
full-time
assignment. Moreover, many of the conflict-of-interest
problems that
arise
in the
case
of assigning the function
to one of the operating agencies would also exist in
such an assignment to
ICAS.
were
the Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorology
more
clearly separate from
ESSA,
and perhaps
even from
the
Department of
Commerce,
one might assign
this
task
to
the Federal Coordinator.
strongly, however, that
the
present relations between
the Federal Coordinator
I
s
off ice and
ESSA
are sufficiently
ambivalent to make the assignment
of
the regulation
and
control function
to
the Federal Coordinator
an
unwise step.
I
feel
very
International Implications
By approximately
1972,
when
large-scale
weather
modification experiments may
well
be
operational, they
may
be
expected to have considerable international
impact.
This
impact
will
be
twofold:
(1)
geographically
more
extensive, there
will
be
a
need
for
coordinating such operations
with
nations whose territories are affected by
those
operations.
If experiments take place
over oceans
there
may
be
a
conflict
with
weather modification experiments by other
nations.
This
is
essentially
a
question
of
regulation and coordination.
It
is
not
expected
that
an international regulatory
body
will
exist by
that
time.
Indeed,
efforts
As
experiments and operations
become
30
to establish an international agency to deal
with
weather modification, while
well
intended,
are likely to
be
of dubious value and to create
rather than resolve political problems--if the
experience
in
nuclear energy and space
is
any
guide
.
A
more practical and constructive approach to the
international problem--and one which should pave
rather
than block the way for the necessary
experimentation--would
be
through bilateral or
multilateral arrangements.
In
these, the
U.S.
would seek to establish the mutual
interest
of
neighboring countries in large-scale experiments
and
to
engage them with us in such experiments.
In
this way,
we
could educate
a
growing
number
of countries, establish our good faith, increase
the acceptability of the program in the eyes
of third countries, demonstrate values
transcending national
interests,
and
win
support where required in international forums
which may address themselves on
a
political
basis to the problems of weather modification.
The office for regulation and control, discussed
in
the preceding section,
will
certainly have
to
bz
involved. National responsibilities
will
have to be clarified and defined. This, however,
is
6
subject
outside the scope of my assignment.
(2)
Benefits and potential payoffs of weather
modification experiments on
a
national
scale
have already
been
discussed
in
the introduction
to this report. When applied on
a
global scale
these benefits could increase greatly. For
example, modification and diversion
of
tropical
storms
or
typhoons
in
the
Western
Pacific or
39
Indian Ocean would
result
not only in the
prevention of property damage several
orders
of
magnitude greater than
in
North
America,
but also, and
more
importantly, in the saving
of countless numbers of human
lives.
Similar
benefits
would occur from precipitation
augmentation by relieving large
areas
from
the effects
of
extensive droughts. Thus,
valuable experience gained initially on
a
smaller,
national
scale,
may eventually
be
important internationally, permitting us to
cooperate with
and
assist
other
countries in
the saving of human lives and property, and
in
the
enhancement
of
human
welfare.
This
is
another
of
the
benefits that may result from
a
vigorous national program such as that discussed
in
the
preceding sections.
Concludinq
Statement
It
is
believed that the plan
I
recommend
herein
would permit the development
of
a National Weather
Modification Program with
a
satisfactory forward thrust
at
a
realistic
pace, would provide
interested
agencies
with
a substantial and satisfying involvement, would
make
good
use
of the experience and
interest
of
the
various agencies,
is
consistent
with
assigned agency
responsibilities, can develop into a well-coordinated
and inteGrated national program, and should avoid
potential conflicts.
REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
Final Report
of
the Panel on Weather and Climate
Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,
National Academy
of
Sciences-National Research Council;
"Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects,"
Volume
I-
Summary and Recommendations, Volume
II-
Research
and Development, Publication No.
1350, 1966
Report
of
the Special Commission on Weather Modification,
National Science Foundation; "Weather and Climate
Modification," Publication No. NSF
66-3,
transmitted
to NSF December
20,
1965
Report to the Special Commission on Weather Modification,
National Science Foundation; "Weather Modification
Law,
Controls, Operations," Publication No. NSF
66-7
(no
date)
APPENDICES
I
Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academy
of Sciences-National Research Council: Membership
and Recommendations
I1
Special Commission
on
Weather Modification, National
Science Foundation: Membership and Recommendations
I11
Report prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on Weather
Modification; "Present and Future Plans of Federal
Agencies in Weather-Climate Modification," dated
June
20,
1966
IV
Memorandum for Dr. Homer E. Newel1 from
J.
Herbert
Hollomon, Chairman, ICAS, Subject: National Weather
Modification Program, dated June
21,
1966
V
NASA
Panel to Study Weather Modification Activities;
Membership, Chronology of Meetings, and a Compilation
of
Supporting Material used by the Panel
VI
Budget Recommendations and Trends for a National
Weather Modification Program
PANEL
ON
WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
NAS-NRC
MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDATIONS
APPENDIX
I
1-1
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NAS-NRC
Gordon
J.
F.
MacDonald, University of California at Los Angeles,
Chairman
Julian
H.
Bigelow, Institute for Advanced Study
Jule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute
of
Technology
Ralph E. Huschke, The RAND Corporation
Francis
S.
Johnson, Southwest Center for Advanced Studies
Heinz
H.
Lettau, University
of
Wisconsin
Edward
N.
Lorenz, Massachusetts Institute
of
Technology
James
E.
McDonald, University
of
Arizona
*Joanne Simpson, Environmental Science Services Administration
Joseph Smagorinsky, Environmental Science Services
Administration
Verner
E.
Suomi, University
of
Wisconsin
Edward Teller, University
of
California at Livermore
H.
K.
Weickmann, Environmental Science Services Administration
E. J. Workman, University of Hawaii
LIAISON MEMBERS
Donald
L.
Gilman, Environmental Science Services Administration
Edward
P.
Todd, National Science Foundation
*Through
1964
1-2
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
-
National Research Council
AREAS
AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
Administration and Funding of Research and Development in
Weather Modification
We recommend an immediate and thorough study of the
administration and support of research and development
in weather modification.
We recommend that immediate steps be taken by the
agencies to raise the support from the
1965
level of
$5
million to at least
$30
million by
1970.
Projects in Stimulation
of
Precipitation
We recommend the early establishment of several care-
fully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, planned
in such a way as to permit assessment of the seedability
of
a variety
of
storm types.
We recommend, therefore, that means be found, at federal
expense if necessary, to secure much better evaluative
reports on operational programs than are currently
available.
We recommend that attention be given immediately to
careful monitoring and regulation of operational programs
for weather modification.
Re search Properties
We recommend that planning be started immediately on all
the following major field investigations:
1-3
a.
A
comprehensive exploration of hurricane
energetics, leading to the development
of
a
theoretical hurricane model and, subsequently, to
hypotheses for hurricane modification.
b. Measurement of tropical convection and other
aspects of energy-exchange processes in the tropics.
c.
A
comprehensive investigation of hailstorms.
d.
A
coordinated set of projects to measure the
dynamics and water budgets of a variety
of
pre-
cipitating storm types,
e.
pheric sciences will contribute to the goals
of
weather and climate modification. Of the research
promising the most direct contributions, we recommend
that highest priority be assigned to the following
studies:
It is clear that research throughout the atmos-
1.
initially on vapor transport ovar those
portions of the United States where the poten-
tial of cloud seeding is important,
Studies of atmospheric water budgets,
2.
Studies
of
boundary-layer energy-exchange
processes,
3.
Continued development
of
theoretical
models
of
condensation and precipitation mech-
anisms, including the early incorporation of
dynamical and electrical influences and the
effects of changes in concentrations
of
con-
densation and freezing nuclei.
4.
New and comprehensive studies
of
the
meteorological effects
of
atmospheric pol-
lution (including carbon dioxide) and
urbanization.
1-4
Major Research Facilities and Support Systems
We
recommend that all necessary steps be taken to
encourage the computer industry
to
respond to these
prospective requirements.
We
recommend full
U.S.
support and leadership in
promptly establishing an advanced global-observational
system.
We recommend that the civil research aircraft facilities
be enlarged to include diversified types of aircraft
and supporting data-gathering systems to meet the
requirements placed upon them.
Internal Aspects
We
recommend that the federal agency assigned major
administrative responsibilities in this field also be
empowered to deal with the complex international
issues arising from weather-modification projects.
1-5
SPECIAL COMMISSION
ON
WEATHER
MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDAT IONS
APPENDIX
I1
11-1
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman, Vice President, Colorado State
University
John Bardeen, Vice Chairman, Departments
of
Physics and
Electrical Engineering, University
of
Illinois
William
G.
Colman, Executive Director, Advisory Commission
on
Intergovernmenta
1
Re la tions
John
C.
Dreier, School
of
Advanced International Studies,
The Johns Hopkins University
Leonid Hurwicz, Department
of
Economics, University
of
Minnesota
Thomas
F.
Malone, Second Vice President, Research Department,
Travelers Insurance Company
Arthur
W.
Murphy, Columbia University School
of
Law
Sumner
T.
Pike, Lubec, Maine
William
S.
von Arx, Massachusetts Institute
of
Technology
and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Gilbert F. White, Department
of
Geograpny, University
of
Chicago
Karl
M.
Wilbur, Department
of
Zoology, Duke University
11-2
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Progress and Prospecks in Weather and Climate Modification
The Commission concludes that sound progress toward the
technology of weather and climate modification must be
based on four fundamental pursuits:
a. Assessment and development of
an
understanding
of natural climatic change.
b. Assessment of the extent and development of the
understanding of inadvertent modifications of weather
and climate.
c. Improvement of the process
of
weather prediction
as a social benefit and as proof of scientific
understanding of atmospheric behavior, and
d. Development of means
for
deliberate intervention
in atmospheric processes for weather and climate
control and evaluation
of
their consequences.
As
steps toward these attainments the
Corraissioii
recommends
tkat
the following enterprises be fostered:
i.
Examination of the routes, rates, and reservoirs
of
water substance and energy exchanges in all aspects
of
the hydrologic cycle.
2.
Investigation by numerical laboratory and field
experiments of the dynamics of climate as a basic
study for weather modification technology.
11-3
3.
Advancement of weather prediction as a proof
of
understanding, including support of this effort by
the establishment of a global weather observation
network
.
4.
Broadenins
0-
the knowledge of cloud physics and
dynamics
in
thc,
laboratory and field, with attention
to wave phenomena and an evaluation
of
electrical
influences.
5.
Study of the effects of large scale surface
modification
by
numerical and laboratory models
of
the oceanic and atmospheric general circulation,
and of practical means for surface modification
of
the land and sea.
6.
Study of the radiative effects
of
changes
in
the
atmospheric composition and alteration of
its
trans-
parency that urban growth and
new
forms
of
industry,
transportation
or
land
use
may evoke.
Biological Aspects of Weather Modification
Living things are adapted to the weather that actually
prevails, and any change
in
that weather
will
be generally
deleterious to them.
The largest credit item for weather modification
is
likely
to
he
an increase
in
primary production
of
the drier
parts
ui'
I:he land surface through improvements in rainfall.
Even the ability to control seasonal distribution of
rainfall would lead
to
more efficient farming operations.
Realization
of
the potential increasein production would
depend upon being able to modify
the
rainfall without
major pest outbreaks and extinction and disruption of
natural communities.
It
is
not certain that this would
be
possible.
11-4
The largest weather modification debit item is likely
to spring from the decreased stability of communities,
which would manifest itself in an increase in pests,
weeds, and pathogens. The identity of the species in-
volved in these disruptions cannot be predicted, nor
can their cost.
For the present, weather and climate modification should
be restricted to iocal small-scale operations.
Larger scale operations, such
as
an attempt to increase
the rainfall of any substantial part
of
this country,
should not be undertaken, from a biological point
of
view, in the present state of knowledge.
All
weather modification experiments of a scale large
enough to have important biological consequences, such
a
those currently envisioned
for
the 'u'pper Colorado
Basin, should be preceded and accompanied by careful
ecological monitoring and computer simulation studies.
Manipulating the weather to obtain a net benefit will
demand much better understanding
of
the interactions
of
weather, climate and organisms than now available.
Adequate understanding of the interrelationship of
weatner, climate and ecology
will
demand
a
very expensive
long-term research program. Present resources
of
ecolagically trained investigators are inadequate to
ccjpe with these problems.
Tho Working Group of the Ecological Society of America,
which pri-vided background material for the Commission,
was concerned primarily with modifications of weather
systems ranging from a single cloud to an extratropical
cyclonic storm. The Working Group stated that short-
term modifications of weather of a magnitude similar
to
the
fluctuations in nature are least likely to have
danqerous unforeseen consequences.
If
undesirable
results appear, the modifications can be discontinued.
11-5
Repeated operations on the scale mentioned are likely,
however, to have far reaching biological consequences
as
pointed out
in
the previous sections, and some of
the biological changes would not be reversible. This
advisory group recommended that repeated and long
term
modifications
of
weather :lot
be
attempted without prior
careful and
well
planned
monitoring or computer simulation
studies
of
the biolsgical consequences of particular
kinds
of
weather modification.
Statistical Aspects
of
Weather Modification
Statistical training for meteorologists should be
promoted
in
academic programs. Intellectual interchange
between
scientists
and statisticians should be continued
through periodic seminars.
Statistical consultants should
be
made available to
scientists
in
this field through
t’ie
support of confer-
ences where
new
projects can
be
presented, through
use
of statisticians as evaluators
of
proposed work, and
through the support of task forces and advisory panels,
with
statistician members, for large projects. Statisti-
cians should aid
in
the evaluation of proposals for
government-supported research.
Step?
should
be
taken
to
assure that plans for govern-
ment-supported research utilize statistical principles
111
determination of design and
size.
Kewarch
in
methodology should
be
promoted. This in-
clude;;
L;,C
development and validation
of
statistical
models, unitormity trials and other investigations of
the statistical characteristics
of
the instrumentation
in
this work.
It
is
urged that any regulatory agency that might come
into being should have a staff statistician to guide
efforts to gather valid evidence on the magnitude and
effects
of
cloud seeding.
11-6
A
program of carefully planned precipitation-oriented
field experiments should be carried out under complete
control
of
the scientists, embodying the required
technical knowledge, possessing continuity over a period
needed for conclusiveness, and on sufficient scale to
permit geographic conclusions, as well as statistical
stratification according
to
the type of seeding agent,
mode of injection, cloud type, etc.
The Human Effects of Weather and Climate Modification
Steps should be taken to assure that wherever field
experimentation or commercial operations are undertaken
in weather and climate modification arrangements be
made to study the social consequences.
A
special panel should be established to exchange and
give
critical
review to the
results
of
such studies.
The method of assessing impacts
of
weather modification
should be the subject of research looking to its re-
finement and extension.
Freedom of field experimentation should be supported
by providing indemnification of Federally financed
experimenters against damage claims.
Research should be encouraged on the basic relationships
betLeen weather characteristics and human activity.
Decision rmking processes in the face of uncertainty
as
to
weather modification and its effects should be
subjected to careful investigation as a means of increas-
ing the government's abilizy to predict the results of
alternative policies and methods for weather modification.
Interdisciplinary study
of
modifications which man makes
inadvertently should be encouraged.
11-7
Legal and Legislative
Aspects
The
Commission
recommends that the Federal Government
by appropriate legislation
be
empowered
to:
1.
private
--
in
actual or potential conflict with
weather and climate modification programs of the
Federal g~vernment, whether carried on by the
government itself
or
by
its
grantees
or
contractors;
Delay or halt all activities
--
public or
I
2.
Immunize Federal agents, grantees, and con-
tractors engaged
in
weather and climate modifi-
cation activities from State and local government
interference; and
3.
Provide to Federal grantees and contractors
indemnification or other protection against
liability to the public for damages caused by
Federal programs
of
weather and
climate
modifi-
cation.
Weather Modification and International Relations
The Commission believes that it would be highly desirable
for the Government of the United States, in connection
with the expansion of its program of weather and climate
modification, to issue
a
basic statement as to how it
views the relationship of this new national effort to
the interests, hopes, and possible apprehensions of
the rest of the world. The Commission further believes
that emphasis upon international cooperation in the
development of weather and climate modification programs
will contribute substantially to scientific and technical
progress and will also serve the national purpose
of
seeking to build a peaceful world order.
The Commission recommends the early enunciation
of
a
national policy embodying two main points:
(1)
that
it is the purpose
of
the United States, with normal and
due regard to its own basic interests, to pursue its
efforts in weather and climate modification for peaceful
ends and for the constructive improvement of conditions
of human life throughout the world: and
(2)
that the
United States, recognizing the interests and concerns
of other countries, welcomes and solicits their cooperation,
directly and through international arrangements, for the
achievement of that objective. This cooperation should
cover both research and operational programs
of
interest
to other countries. It shouid be concerned not only
with deliberate but also inadvertent human interventions
in the atmosphere that affect weather and climate. Such
a policy declaration could be issued by the President
or incorporated in any basic legislation on the subject
of
weather and climate modification which the Congress
may enact.
11-9
Funding and Administration Requirements
The Commission has considered carefully the problems
attendant upon the assignment of responsibility for
weather and climate modification activities within the
Executive Branch
of
the Federal Government.
There are no easy solutions to these questions. The
Commissioii believes the adoption of the following
recommendations would significantly improve the effective-
ness
of
the Nation's efforts in this field, and would
faciiitate the achievement of the scientific and other
objectives specified elsewhere in this report.
a.
Responsibility for Research, Development, and
Operations
The Commission recommends:
(1)
the assignment of
the mission
of
developing and testing techniques
for
modifying weather and climate to a single agency
in
the Executive Branch of the Government
-
for
example to the Environmental Science Services
Administration of the Department of Commerce or to
a
completely new agency organized for the purpose;
(2)
tne continuance and expansion of research in the
atmospheric sciences by the National Science Foundation,
including its program directed atproviding a satis-
tictory scientific basis for weather and climate
nx5fication and the maintenance
of
the National
<t
:!iiter
for Atmospheric Research as a basic research
faciilty for this purpose; and
(3)
the conduct or
support, pursuant to Executive Order
10521,
of such
basic
and
applied research by other Federal agencies
as
is
required! for their varied missions
as
well as
the conduct of operational activities necessary for
the accomplishment
of
such missions (e.g., precipita-
tion augmentation
for
the reservoir system of the
Bureau of Reclamation; lightning suppression by the
U.S.
Forest Service; military applications by the
Department of Defense; etc.).
11-10
The degree of the Foundation's special attention to
this field, includinq ?he support of related research
in other affected dir:iplines, should be reviewed
from time to time
ir:
the
light
of
the progress of
the overall national program. The Foundation needs
to continue the vigorous support of basic research
in the atmospheric sciences because fundamental
k:iowledge
so
derived is a necessary underpinning to
technological progress in weather and climate
mcdification.
The agency assigned the mission of developing and
testing techniques for modifying weather and climate,
as a part of its overall mission, should have major
but not exclusive responsibility in collaboration
with the State Department for formulating and imple-
menting weather and climate modification programs
involving international collaboration with the
governments of other
nations.
The
government
'
s
activities in international cooperation can be
substantially assisted by the participation
of
the
National Academy
of
Sciences.
Regulation
The Commission recommends that responsibility for
appropriate Federal regulation
of
weather and climate
xodification activities
to
aid
the Federal
Govern-
m<.nt'
s
program of research and development and to
-,;otect the general public be kept separated from
K-~
,.ealrch
and development activities while assuring
prompt
and
full availability to such activities of
data derived from the regulation of commercial and
other operational 2ctivkties. Such
a
combination
night
be
achievc,d, for exmple,
by
assigning the
regulatory function
to
some part of the Department
cf
Commerce not concerned with weather and climate
research and development.
11-11
Earlier in this report there has been discussed the
nature of minimum regulatory action which may be
required on the part
of
the national Government to
assure the integrity
of
experiments conducted by
Federal agencies
or
their grantees and contractors.
It should be pointed out in
this
connection that
Federal agencies and their contractors and grantees
themselves will necessarily be subject
to
some of
the same types of regulation that apply to commercial
operations.
A
Federal agency field experiment in-
volving large-scale cloud seeding for example, can
cause the same interference with other scheduled
experiments as can cloud seeding conducted by a
commercial operator.
Consequently, Federal agencies will need to be
subject to many
of
the rules and regulations issued
by the type of regulatory unit recommended above.
Insofar as the regulation involves requirements of
notice
of
experiments, licensing of activities and
the like, there would seem to be reason why all
Federal agencies should be subject thereto. The
regulating agency should also have the power to
resolve minor conflicts between agencies, such as
the precise timing of particular experiments. Any
major disagreements would involve policy and adminis-
trative coordination as discussed below.
c. Inter-Agency Coordination of Policies and Program
Activities
The Commission recommends that there be established
within
the
Office
of
Science and Technology (OST) a
special mechanism for the coordination of weather and
climate modification programs and for recommending
such steps as may be appropriate for effecting a
unity of governmental policy in this field.
11-12
If the general vission of developing the technology
for climate modification is assigned
to
a single
agency, present overlap and lack of concerted effort
among the various agencies will be remedied to a
considerable extent. Due to the great importance
of the field, however, and because of the necessity
of
maintaining an interdisciplinary and international
approach to weather activities, it is believed that
continuing attention must be forthcoming from the
Executive Office of the President. Consequently,
some mechanism concerned solely with weather and
climate modification, with emphasis on the develop-
ment and operational side, needs to be established
within the
OST.
The OST's concern should embrace
funding, basic research, applied research, develop-
ment, testing and evaluation. Such a mechanism could
take over from ICAS the weather and climate modifica-
tion components. ICAS could continue to be concerned
with atmospheric research.
d. An Advisory Committee
The Commission also recommends the utilization of the
National Academy
of
Sciences and the National Academy
of
Engineering for continuing review and advice
regarding the national program of weather and climate
modification.
Both the President's Science Advisory Committee and
the Congress need to be able to obtain scientific and
public policy advice from a group of knowledgeable
people from outside the Government. This need could
perhaps be met by the appointment of a standing
committee in the National Academy of Sciences in
cooperation with the National Academy of Engineering.
Such a committee includes persons with experience
in the physical sciences, engineering, the biological
sciences and the social sciences.
11-13
Report
to
the
Interdepartmental Committee
on
Atmospheric Sciences
----
PRESENT AND
FUTURE
PLANS
OF
FEDERAL
AGENCIES
IN
W
EATHER-CLIMATE MODIFICATION
June 20,
1966
Prepared
by
the
ICAS
Select
Panel
on Weather Modification
APPENDIX
111
111-
1
FOREWORD
This report
was
prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on Weather
bdification for consideration by the Interdepar-tanental
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
as
requested by the
Chairman
at
the
ky
13,
1966,
meeting.
summary of the goals, program approach and facilities of
the Federal Departments and Agencies engaged in weather and
climate modification activities
for
FY 1967 and FY 1970.
A
brief summary statement by each Department
or
Agency
is
also
included
to
supplement the budgetary material.
It
presents
a
budget
Attention
is
invited to the following points of interest
illustrated by the
matrix
presentation.
1.
The primary emphasis of the Federal goals in
weather modification appears to be in the
category of precipitation modification.
FY
1967
FY 1970
$4.70
million out of
$9.33
million total
'$99.60
million out of
$146.83
million total
2.
The largest percentage and over-all increases
from FY
1967
to FY 1970 in weather modification
are
planned by ESSA
and
the
Bureair
of Reclamation.
ESSA
-
$1.55
million
in
1967
to $59.70 million
Bureau
of
Reclamation
-
$3.00 million
in
1967
in
1970
60
$70.00 million in 1970
3.
The
.Department of Agriculture
is
planning to
support
a
reasonably broad-based weather
modification program by FY 1970 (from
'$0.5
million
to
$9.35
million) expanding into hail suppression,
biological aspects, and boundary layer exchange.
4.
The Department of Defense
is
holding level and
will
not expand significantly unless
a
mission break-
through
is
'imminent.
5.
Field experiments show
as
one would expect--very
expensive.
/--c
&&..A
/.j
9
~(/L+--+
/*
4-L-
Earl
G.
Droessler
Chairman, ICAS Select Panel
on
Weather Modification
.
June
20,
1966
111-2
Agency
AGRIC
.
ESSA
DOD
BUR.
IiEC
.
NSF
NASA
FAA
TO
TAL
- -
0.015
0.140
-
-
-
1.700
1.000
-
0.100
0.300
0.140 0.180
0.660
0.400
27.100
5.200
4.900
12.200
0.930
- -
0.0%
0.210
1.030
- -
0.110
0.240
-
3
.OOO
-
70.000
0;200
1.400
o
700 0.200 0.200
0.500
2.500 1.650 0.500 0.750
1.430
4.700
0.855
0.610 1.070
3.030
99.600
8.550 6.510
13,190
0.115 0.495
-
3.250 9.350
-
-
1.380 0.170
0.700
57.600
2.100
-
1.230
0.056
-
1.380 0.060
0
1
-
-
-
3.000
-
70.000
100
3.000
0.214
1.000
7.400
0.500
-
0.070
-
-
0.150
0.020
0.020 0.150
-
-
0.950
-
0.235
9.325
0.434
4.950
1.46.830
2.680
includes
boundary layer studies and remote sensing.
#
includes
climate modification studies
and
cumulus
modification.
111-3
Agency
AGRIC
.
ESSA
DOD
BUR.
mc
.
NSF
NASA
FAA
TOTAL
hJl3ATHER PDDIFICATION PROGRAM APPROACH
--
(millions
1970
0..275 0.020
0.020
0.020 0.045
3.910
0.450 0.185
0.500 0.695
0.830 0.150
0.035
0.100
0.180
39.350
11.450
1.050
4.950 1.050
0.730 0.180 0.030 0.170
0.120
0.810
0.200
0.040
0.190
0.140
2.009
0.102
0.186
0.090
0.365
45.000
4,500
7.000
1.500 9.000
1.500 0.700 0.050 0.575 0.075
4.000
1.000
0.200
0.800
0.400
0.005 0.030
-
0.030 0.005
0.070 0.030
-
0.010
0.040
5.349
1.182
0.321
0.935 0.920
93.140
17.630
8.475
7.950 11.325
-I-'
d
ma,
-Po
md
5%
q
a
-
0.360
0
.I55
1.150
-
-
0.213
2,000
-
-
-
-
-
0.950
0.368
4.460
W
0.115 0.495
3-250
9.350
0.100
1.550
0.700
59.700
-
1.230
-
1.380
0.035 3.000
1.000
70.000
0.100
3.000
1.000
7.400
-
0.070
-
0.150
0.020
0.150
-
0.950
0.370
9.495
5.950
148.930
111-4
Agency
AGRIG
.
ESSA
DOD
BUR.
REG.
NSF
NASA
FAA
TOTAL
1967
1970
FACILITIES
FOR
WEATIER
MIDIFICATION
--
n
.
-
0.060 0.070
0.040
0.030 0.035
0.005
0,010
-
0.250
-
0.220
0.350 0.950
0.300
1.880
0.100
0.200
-
4.000
0.050
0.020
0.200 0.050
-
0.075 0.050
-
0.010
0.455
8.000 13.100 .91.300 4.400.
2.600
2.000 0.800
- -
42.200
0.040 0.060
?$o.300
0.020
0.010
o.iio
0.050
-
-
0.590
0.050 0.070 3t0.330
0.020
0.010
0.130
0.060
- -
0.670
-
0.250 0.015 0.500 0.015 0.020 0.060
- -
0.860
1.250 6.000 0.500 2.000 3.000 0.750
1.000
1.500
-
16.000
0.200 0.080 0.045 0.165 0.070 0.080
0.012
0.085
-
0.737
0.500 0.250
0.100
0.300
0.100
0.100
0.050 0.200
-
1.600
-
0.010
-
-
-
-
0.010
-
-
-
- -
-
-
0.015
-
-
-
0.015
-
0.015
-
0.090
- -
0.010
0.005
- -
-
-
-
-
0.040
0.050
-
- -
-
0.290
0.470
0.640 0.780
0.125 0.330
0.177
0.095
0.010
2.917
9.800
19.640 12.620
7.720
6.010
4.875 2.010
1.900
-
64.575
includes research aircraft
only.
111-5
DEPARTMENT
OF
AGRICULTURE
WEATHER MIDIFICATION PFUIGRAM
FOR
FY
1967
The Department of Agriculture
is
performing
or
planning weather
modification research in five major fields:
(1)
Lightning suppression
(2)
Hail
suppression
(3)
(4)
Boundary layer energy exchange
(5)
Biological responses
to
weather modification
Remote sensing in support of weather modification
Present Program.
(1)
Liphtning Suppression. Project Skyfire of the
U.
S.
Forest
Service
is
performing
an
active research program aimed at suppression
of lightning. Field experiments
are
testing the effects of very
heavy seeding with silver iodide on lightning storms.
to date show that seeded clouds produced
1/3
fewer cloud-ground
strokes than non-seeded clouds.
most.likely to ignite forest fires has also been identified.
Physical and mathematical models of mountain thunderstorms
are
being developed.
The results
The type of lightning discharge
*
(2)
'Hail Suppression.
The
main
activity
is
preliminary planning of
a
long range research program.
of hail damage to agricultural crops and related resources.
Statistical studies are being made
(3)
Biological Responses
to
Weather Modification. The Forest Service
and Agricultural Research Service are engaged in ecological studies
giving consideration to individual species under
a
limited range of
climatic parameters.
both
forest
and
farm
biological communities in relation to specific
features of weather and climate.
These studies are developing information on
(4)
Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The Department of Agriculture
has had long and productive research related to boundary-layer
energy exchange. These studies concern the energy response of
evapotranspiration.
relationships under specific atmospheric situations.
(5)
Remote Sensing in Support of Weather Fbdification.
The
Forest
Service and Agricultural Research Service are performing research
for
development of knowledge and technology in remote sensing
as
applied
to
agricultural and forestry programs.
support development of the weather modification research program.
Airborne infrared scanners
are
being used to provide information on
fires,
vegetation, topographic features and background thermal radiation.
Advanced photographic techniques are being developed. Planning
is
underway for
an
expanded research program
for
remote sensing of biomass
changes on agricultural and forest lands and detection of critical
Limited studies are underway of energy exchange
Part
of the activities
I
changes in boundary-layer energy exchange relations.
111-6
DEPARTMENT
OF
AGRICULm
WEATHER MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM
FOR
FY
1970
(1)
Lightning Suppression.
On
the foundation of the results
stemming from Project Skyfire, the Forest Service
is
planning
a
strengthened research program including
:
(a)
of
a
larger area, intensification of measurement
of
lightning
discharges, and delivery
of
larger quantities
of
silver-iodide
to
storms selected for treatment. Research
will
be stepped
up on
the
development of higher output silver iodide generators
for
use on aircraft and
at
ground stations.
capabilities
will
be increased
to
permit simultaneous seeding
of two
or
more cloud
systems
in instmented test
areas.
Expanded field experiments
will
permit instrumentation
Experimental
(b) More intensive investigation of the already identified
lightning stroke most likely to ignite
fires
and
of
the
physical processes for
its
modification
is
planned.
laboratory experiments
will
accelerate investigations
of
the
modification of the electrical structure
of
simulated clouds
with freezing nuclei.
Strengthened
(2)
Hail
Suppression.
A
research program consisting of four major
activities
is
proposed:
(1)
The Forest Service, utilizing technology
already developed by Project Skyfire, would initiate basic studies of
hailstorm phenomena and field experiments in the seeding of hailstorms;
(2)
Agricultural Research Service would undertake studies of the
relationships between hailstorms and the'production and quality
of
agricultural crops;
(3)
Economic Research Service would examine
the socio-economic aspects
of
hailstorms; and
(4)
Cooperative State
Research Service would establish
a
grant program
for
hail research
with universities.
(3)
Biological Responses. The research program proposed would
provide
a
centrally coordinated effort directed
at
meeting the
glaring deficiencies in ecological knowledge.
weather
is
to be modified, natural communities would be selected
for study and permanent plots established in them. Communities
would be
chosen to represent the
full
range of environments and
major community
types
in the
area
and especially in extreme
environments.
and after
a
period of weather modification to determine species
changes.
and observed in natural areas unaffected
by
weather modification
or
by
other of
man's
activities.
to certain insect pests, weed species, species near the
limits
of
their range, and to soil
fauna
and flora.
be sought.
In
an area in which
Detailed observations would
be
made before, during,
Similar plots
in
similar
situations would be established
Particular attention would be given
Indicator species would
111-
7
I
2
The proposed program would include computer simulation studies.
The research plan woilld include
a
continuing comprehensive .analysis
of precipitation data to determine
if
a measurable heneficial
or
detrimental effect occurred anywhere within the system.
there
would
be comprehensive controlled ecological studies on the
effect on vegetation of different amounts and patterns of precipitation.
Concurrently,
(4)
Boundary-Layer Energy Exchange. The effect of changing the
amount
of
advected energy through weather modification upon the
processes at the leaf-air interface
will
be evaluated and procedures
developed to minimize the effect of spreading droughts,
or
to take
advantage
of
benefits
from
weather modification.
Microclimate control measures
Will
be developed to reduce evapo-
transpiration, to conserve soil moisture reserves, and to
assure
adequate photosynthetic activity of cropped and forested areas.
The
effects of weather modification on diffusion and eddy’transfer
processes that are responsible for the exchange
of
carbon dioxide,
water vapor, and heat between leaf surfaces and the atmosphere
will
be
c!.arif ied
.
(5)
Remote Sensing. Research
will
be conducted to:
(a)
Develop technology
to
determine ecologic changes
of
past
20
years related to inadvertent weather modification. Modern
seqilential aerial photography compared with early photography
can
provide some pre-weather modification bases for measuring
czlrrent and future trends.
(b)
multiscale remoie sensing which
starts
at
the milacre plot
and scales upwards to satellite-scale high resolution remote
sensing.
Develop scaling
laws
and change detecting systems by
(c)
in biomass and
its
characteristics and trends in characteristics
significant to energy-balance.
Develop technology
of
detecting and measuring trends
111-8
ESSA'S
PLANNED
INEATHER
M3DIFICATION
RFSEARCH
PROGRAM
FOR
FY
1967
Research planned by the Department of Commerce Environmental Science
Services
Administration
during
fiscal
year
1967
will
be directed
to an expanded "in house" and contractual program of instrument
and equipment development,
field measurements and~experiments, laboratory
investigations, theoretical modeling
of
cloud physics processes,
and establishment of
a
bench mark program of data collection related
to
inadvertent weather modification.
An
expanded exploration of the
structure and dynamics of hurricanes through experiments designed to
inquire into the feasibility
of
storm modification by sustained and
massive seeding techniques
is
programmed in collaboration with the
U.
S.
Navy
(Project
STORIQLJRY).
The conceptual foundations for hail suppression
or
modification
will
be exaiiined through use
of
a
newly constmcted mobile hail
laboratory operated by the ESSA Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry
Laboratory recently established
at
Boulder, Colorado.
A
series
of
surface
and airborne measurements and experimentg
will
be carried
out near Flagstaff, Arizona, during July and August
1966
in cooperation
with the
U.
S.
Army lightning suppression research project.
experiments incorporate chaff seeding techniques and the effects of
this on
cumulus
cloud electrification
will
be assessed on the basis
of ground level and aircraft surveillance
of
atmospheric electrical
parametcrs.
Instrument and equipment development
will
include
a
raindrop spectrometer, airborne humidity and temperature sensing
devices, and the construction
of
an aircraft mounted system for
releasing large quantities of hydrophilic substances
for
altering
the natural population of condensation nuclei.
A
series of field experiments intended to critically stildy the
precipitation augmentation and redistribution problem
is
being
planned with particular reference
to
the Northeastern
U.
S.
and
Great Lakes region
as
a
follow-on research program recommended by
the National Academy of Sciences, Panel on Weather and
Climate
Modification.
to
clarify the vertical and horizontal diffusion of silver iodide
released from ground generatmrs.
and laboratory researeh
will
heavily emphasize cloud nucleation problems
and the role of precipitation formation and growth mechanisms in altering
cloud dynamics
or
processes initially under tropical convective regimes.
Problems of inadvertent weather modification
will
be approached by
establishing
a
sustained standardized carbon dioxide monitoring program
initially
at
the remote high altitude
&una
Loa Observatory in
Hawaii
to provide
.a
bench mark series
of
data.
The
The program
will
include field experiments designed
Theoretical modeling experiments
111-9
ESSA’S
PLmD
hTATHER MIDIFICATION ElESEELRCH
PROGRAM
FOR
FY
70
Fiscal year
1970
is
the middle year of the proposed ESSA five-year
weather modification program.
reaching
full
operating strength, and the expenditures for heavy
capital equipment
will
reach a peak during this year.
phase
of
the effort
will
have been under
way
for the previous two
years, and
it
is
to
be hoped that experimental application of
‘
modification techniques could begin in most areas.
The major field projects
will
be
“he exploratory
Documentation
of
the cloud and precipitation structure during
both winter and summer months
will
have been achieved over most
of the experimental sites, and experimental seeding operations
will
be under way primarily by aircraft, for establishing optknum
techniques for precipitation control. Ground-based randomized
seeding
at
several sites
will
be
continued. Exploration of severe
storms--hurricanes, tornadoes, hailstorms--will continue, directed
at
the establishment of modification hypotheses. Experimental
treatments
will
be employed
as
appropriate. The kackground research
effort
will
continue, with emphasis on laboratory studies, computer
simulation,
and field observations and experiments.
dynamic modeling
will
represent an expanding effort, with the creation
of more sophisticated models
as
computer capabilities increase.
Instrment development
will
continue
at
an accelerating pace, with
emphasis on
radar,
aircraft equipment, and the concept and development
of entirely new approaches to cloud and atmospheric measurements.
Studies of future operational system concepts
will
be initiated.
Large-scale
The major outlay in new facilities would continue to be in the
purchase
of
aircraft.
program
two
additional
P-3
(Electra)
,
two additional executive
type, and one heavily stressed
military
attack aircraft, are scheduled
for
1970.
construction
of
at
least
two
large-scale cloud chambers wollld begin
during this year.
Also,
if
the desirability
of
a new national
laboratory
were
established, construction of this facility would
also
be undertaken. Field
site
instrumentation would be continued,
primarily to
fill
out planned complements, and to install new
types
of
equipment which had been developed during the
first
two
years of
the program.
According to the proposed ESSA five-year
With completion of design studies
,
it
,is
planned that
’
111-
10
DEPARTIBNT
OF
DEFE;NSE
WEATHER
M3DIFICATION
PRI)GRAM
FOR
FY
1967
DOD's
interest
in
weather modification
is
not
a
general across the
board interest in weather modification
as
a
science
or
even in the
broad improvement in technology.
particular scientific and technological areas that have direct
application to the improvement
of
DOD's
capability for carrying
out
its
mission.
It
is
rather an interest in
those
The main
thrust
of the
DOD
effort in weather modification can be
divided into four
major
problem areas.
These are:
WARM
FOG
The problem of
warm
fog and
stratus
receives the
major
emphasis
in
the
DOD
weather modification program due to
its
widespread
occurrence and
its
adverse effect on
so
many military operations.
Although
a
number of approachs have been made in attempting to
dissipate
warm
fogs and one technique involving the application
of vast quantities of heat has demonstrated
a
measure
of
success
there
is
at
present no economically and operationally feasible
method available for gerleral use.
The
major portion
of
the
DOD
efforts in this area are therefore directed toward gaining
a
better understanding of the life cycle of
warm
fqgs in
terms
of
physical parameters the knowledge of which
will
be necessary to
develop feasible dissipation techniques.
SEVERE
STORM
IBDIFICATION
The need for finding
a
way to moderate the intensity of the most
violent
forms
of nature
is
obvious. The
most
ambitious attack on
this
problem
in
which
WD
is
involved iskhe joint
DOD-DOC
program
for experiments on hurricane modification known
as
Project
STORMFURY.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
The two areas of interest
just
discussed account for
80%
of the
funds devoted by
DOD
to weather modification.
interest
is
the broad topic of convective clouds.
interest not only because of
its
association with severe
storms
but also because
it
is
the dominant
type
of
activity in tropical
regions where much
of
DOD's
area
of
operations
is
centered.
Another area
of
This
is
of
major
COLD
FOG
This activity accounts
for
only
5%
of the research effort mainly
because
it
has moved into operational use in
DOD.
Research
is
continuing, however, on
more
efficient modification techniques
such
as
the
use
of propane
gas
or
the transportation of dry ice
by small balloons.
111-
11
2
Associated with these problem areas and necessary to their eventual
solution
is
the work being carried out in cloud physics and
instrumentation development in report
of
more
general problems
in the atmospheric sciences.
DEP~TMENT
OF
DEFENSE
WEATHER
MIDIFIGATION
PROGRAM
FOR
FY
1970
The
DOD
weather modification program
is
funded under a level effort
concept and unless
a
major
technological.breakthrough
is
achieved
or
a
critical unforeseen need arises the program should remain
at
its
present level.
several years due to the general increase in cost
of
living which
at
this
time
amounts
to
between
3-4%
per year but no major expansion
of
the program
is
planned
at
present.
Dollar
amounts may increase over the next
111-
12
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WEATHER M3DIFICATION
PROGFUM
FOR
FY
1967
Field experiments comprise the largest portion of the Bureau's
efforts, both\ in the and money.
regimes
will
contime in South hkota and Arizona.
precipitation regimes
will
cbntinue
to
be studied in California,
Washington
,
Montana
,
Nevada
,
Utah
,
Arizona
,
New Mexico, Colorado
,
and Wyoming, with equipment and instrument installations continuing
in some areas.
Studies of summer precipitation
Winter
Laboratory experiments, while not
large
in
terms
of
the and money,
represent an important part of our program. Programs
are
underway
to study the behavior of artificial nuclei when introduced into the
cloud base; to find better ways
to
detect see2ing material in
precipitation
as
an aid in evaluating seeding effectiveness; and
to continue the development and refinement of telemetering precipitation
gages
.
Tneoretical and statistical studies
will
continue to be supported
at
the
South Dakota School of Mines, 'University of Nevada, Aerometric
Research
,
Inc.
,
Taft
College
,
Fresno State College Foundation
,
Colorado
State University, Naval Ordnance Test Station,
U.
S.
Forest Service,
U.
S.
Weather Sureau,
and
W.
E.
Howell
Associates.
inclviie mathematical modeling of cloud and precipitation processes,
evaluation techniques, new seeding agents and devices, and cloud and
storm climatology.
These studies
Development of technology
is
a
natural
outgrowth
of
the research
efforts.
The
Bureau
will
continue in
FY
67
to develop seeding
technology for cap clouds,
summer
cumulus and winter orographic
cloud systems, and emphasis
will
be exerted to exploit the capabilities
of current instrumentation and equipment (radar, for example).
Systems developnent
will
become an increasingly important part of
the program.
of Reclamation
will
continue work in
this
area,
with
valuable
assistance
from contractors on the details of the components.
efforts
will
be directed towards increasing knowledge of data
gathering and processing during FY
67.
During FY
67
the Denver Office
staff
of the Bureau
In particular,
111-
13
BUREAU OF RECLAMATION WEATHER MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM FOR
FY
1970
In
FY
70
field experiments
will
continue to be the area
of
greatest
effort, and it is anticipated that research activities will have
expanded to include the entire nation.
that some areas, perhaps one in the East and one in the West, will
have pilot plant operational programs.
will
be continued studies
of
the feasibility
of
redistributing
precipitation as part of the total water resources development
of
the nation.
at higher levels of effort. However, a few may be terminated as
answers to specific problems are found. It is anticipated that
major steps forward will be taken in ground-to-ground
and
air-to-ground
telemetry operations and also in establishing a nationwide weather
radar surveillance network to aid in detecting seeding opportunities
and evaluating results.
By FY
70
it
is expected
Among the major investigations
Most of the field experiments
of
FY
66
will be continued
With the availability to the program of major cloud chamber facilities
acquired in prior years, it is anticipated that many of the unanswered
questions
of
cloud and precipitation processes can be investigated.
Other problems discovered as a result
of
previous work
will
continue
to receive attention in FY
70.
to
cloud seeding, indirect influences, such as socio-economic and
bioloTical factors,
will
be examined.
In addition to studies dire,ctly related
Development
of
technology will be proceeding at a high pace in view
of the expanding program.
will
be made toward developing an "operational manual" for several
areas of the nation.
It is expected that considerable progress
Systems development will colitinue to receive major attention during
FY
70.
will
receive increasing support as the program in atmospheric water
resources progresses.
Studies in proper management
of
research and operational programs
111-
14
NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION
WEATHER
MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM
FOR
FY
1967
In FY
1967,
efforts
will
be made
to
build on the present competence
available in universities and other appropriate institutions and
to
encourage cooperative efforts between smaller groups to pool their
talents and provide
mutual
support in which combined efforts can be
made
to
yield much greater impact. The Hailswath Project in which
22
separate research groups are pooling their efforts toward the
common goal
of
hail suppression research
at
a
specific location
is
an
example
of
this type of cooperative research.
Cooperative arrangements on
a
smaller
scale between the
staffs
of
different universities to supplement talents
are
also being
encouraged
by
the National Science Foundation.
ventures are the testing
of
new nucleating materials developed
at
Lehigh University by the University of Chicago field project Whitetop,
the testing of ultrapure silver iodide produced by the University
of Arizona in the calibration facility
of
the Colorado State
University, and the operation
of
a
radar facility
at
Chadron State
College by the research
team
from
the
South Dakota School
of
Knes.
The
role of the National Science Foundation in bringing together
diverse research talents into cooperative research
teams
is
vital
in developing the talented manpower resources needed
for
the future,
and
will
insure that
a
critical
size
of
effort can be attained to
be
effective.
Typical cooperative
Increasing emphasis'is being made to supplement the operational
"know-how" of the field research
or
operational project with the
technical and theoretical skill of the trained university scientist.
The recent grant
to
the North Dakota State College to
assist
and
evaluate -the Bowman-Slope
Hail
Association efforts on hail suppression
is
an example where both groups
will
benefit by their
mutual
hterfqce.
Wherever possible, commercial operators are being encouraged
to
incorporate
research aspects into their commercially sponsored seeding projects.
Recent contracts with Wallace
E.
Howell Associates to scientifically
evaluate the
salt
seeding
of
warm clouds over the Virgin Islands
and
with Atmospherics,
Inc. to evaluate the effectiveness of their seeding
program in the Kings River drainage basin in California are examples
of
this effort.
The initiation of interest in weather modification
in
universities
where
competence
may
grow
is
also
a
goal of the National Science
Foundation program. In FY
1966,
efforts were initiated
at
Chadron
State College, in Nebraska, North Dakota State College in North Dakota,
and
at
the University
of
Washington,
in
Seattle, to germinate new sources
of competence which
will
produce the talent for the future.
I
'
111-
15
2
The growing interest in the social, economic, legal, biological and
ecological impacts
of
weather modification created by the recent
report
of
the National Science Foundation Spe cia1 Commission on
Weather Modification
is
being fostered by the formation
of
the Task
Group
on
Human
Dimensions for Weather bbdification
at
the National
Center
for
Atmospheric Research and by
a
grant with the University of
Missouri
to
study
the socio-economic impact of weather and climate
modification.
emphasis
by
the National Science Foundation in the future.
This
is
a
field of research which
will
receive increasing
111-
16
NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION
WEATHER
MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM
FOR
FY
1970
In FY 1970,
it
is
anticipated that many
of
the
small
university
research groups
will
find
it
advantageous to combine their efforts
into larger research
teams
in order
to
approach the study of the
atmosphere in
situ
rather than in the laboratory.
increased capability
for
mobility in field operations in order to
achieve their research goals. This may well be provided by attaching
research
teams
to existing field weather modification operational
projects already in existence,
or
by
a
povling of aircraft, vehicle,
radar and ground network equipment by
a
number of university groups.
This
will
require
It
is
anticipated that there
will
be
a
few large-scale facilities
funded for the testing
of
modification schemes.
might be the suspension of a spray nozzle over
a
valley between
two
mountain
peaks to produce cloud-sized droplets into which
electrical charges can be introduced in either polarity, contamban%s,
can be introduced,
and the drop size spectrum can be adjustec!
to
any reasonable distribution. Under NSF sponsorship, a large aircraft
or
blimp hanger may
also
be converted
into
a
fog chamber for testing
warn
fog dissipation techniques.
Typical schemes
Research
will
still
continue in university laboratories on basic
problems relevant to understanding atmospheric processes, and
"small
science" hopefully
will
continue to be supported along with
the efforts of "big science." Emphasis
will
be increased on the
mathematical modeling of the atmospheric processes and on the
techniques
for
simulating modification processes on the computer
before testing them
in
the atmosphere.
Increasing attention'will be paid
to
the problem of making measurements.
in
the atmosphere.
for
the design of standardized instrumentation and calibration
techniques which
will
be made available to the scientific community.
NSF
will
support studies
by
qualified engineers
By
FY 1970, the approach to the problem
of
the social, economic,
legal, biological and ecological aspects of weather modification should
become sufficiently clear
so
that significant research efforts in
these areas can be fostered and expanded,
will
be equally difficult
as
those faced by the physical scientist in
weather modification, but models and procedures
will
evolve which
will
require major support of field evaluation studies and high-speed computers.
These
will
be approached within the university community and
by
larger
study groups with
capabilities.
the million dollar level, of support.
The solution of these problems
commensurate resources in manpower and computer
By FY 1970,
it
is
planned that this effort
will
approach
111-
17
2
In general,
by
FY 1970
it
is
visualized that the transition of
weather modification from
I'
small
science" to "big science"
will
be
well
on
the way.
support of the university researcher and his graduate students
in the field of basic atmospheric research in weather modiflcation.
The
matrix
figures for
NSF
in
FY
1970
are an estimate
of
the
needs
of the non-government scientific community.
NSF
will
continue to provide the major
NATIONAL
AERONAUTICS
&
SPACE
ADMINISTRATION
WEATHER
MIDIFICATION PROGFLAM FOR FY
1967
NASA'
s
program in weather modification i.n FY
1967
will
be primarily
a
continuation of the effort being scpported under contract with the
Cornell Aeronautical Laboratories,
Inc. on the investigation
of
warm
fog properties and fog modification concepts.
This project
to
date has emphasized analytical and experimental
work on studies of the micro and macroscopic properties
of
warm fogs,
techniques for observing fog parameters, the simulation
of
fog
conditions, the experimental modification
of
fog, and the formulation
of
mathematical fog models.
During FY
1967
laboratory investigations of fog dispersal by
electrification principles
will
be continued. Proposed ideas for
producing condensation nuclei
will
be further investigated and
laboratory experiments
will
be conducted
to
evaluate the concept
for preventing dense radiation
fog.
Nuclei measurements
will
be
continued on
a
daily basis,
and
will
be correlated with measurements
taken on previous years.
111-
19
NATIONAL
AERONAUTICS
&
SPACE ADMINISTRATION
WEATHER MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM
FOR FY
1970
In FY
1970,
it
is
planned
to
continue the work
at
the Cornell
Aeronautical Laboratories in
warm
fog research which
will
provide
the basis for dissipation techniques.
In
the conduct of weather modification experiments, an instmented
satellite viewing the area from above
will
be extremely useful to the
analysis
of
the modification efforts.
would be able
to
perform this support activity with even greater skill.
Thus,
observations
from
space can be very helpful in conducting
experiments in weather modification.
A
manned observer in space
Space launch vehicles pour out a tremendous volume of exhaust, gases
during their active burning stage.
by several orders of magnitude the quantities normally found
in
the
atmosphere
at
these levels.
continuous study in order
to
insure that
future
programs for launching
space flight vehicles, both in this country and by other countries,
will
not have
a
significant effect on the composition and motion of
the atmosphere.
explore this area furthkr.
In quantity, the gases exceed
This situation must be kept under
NASA would be pleased to join
a
study effort
to
NASA's role in aeronautics and particularly in
thk
development of
the supersonic transport naturally involves
it
in the over-a11 program
of
severe storm prediction and posstble modification and dissipation
of
severe storms artificially.
encourage the active programs that would lead to
an
eventual control
of
storms
or
other conditions affecting
aircraft
flight.
From this point of
view,
NASA
would
111-20
FEDERAL
AVIATION
AGENCY
WEATHER
MIDIFICATION
PROGRAM
FOR
FY 1967
Although
the
FAA maintains an interest
in
all
aspects of weather
modification which may be applied
to
further increasing the safety
of aviation and/or
to
providing more effective movement of
air
commerce, the present research and development plans and programs
are focused on methods
to
disperse fog from airports.
begins with
a
definition of requirements,
obtaining preliminary cost
information regarding the economics
of
a system to modify fog
at
airports, and determining criteria for the extent of the application
of the system.
The program
The heat technique appears
most
promising
for
field experimentation.
A
preliminary economic.analysis
is
scheduled to begin in
late
FY
1966
or early FY 1967, with studies
of
test design and system effectiveness
criteria being carried
out
in FY
1967.
FEDERAL
AVIATION
AGENCY
WEATHER
KIDIFICATION
PRQGRAM
FOR FY
19'70
Studies
of
system effectiveness and test'design carried out in FY 1967
will
result in the procurement of experimental devices and the testing
of these devices
to
refine and verify the capabilities and limitations
of
a
fog-dispersal system.
to
begin in FY
1968,
and reaching peak effort in FY
1969
and FY 1970.
Following this period
of
igtense field activity, there
will
be
a
decrease
in research and development activity
as
the engineering and operational
phases
of
the program become more important and arrangements are made
for operational applications
to
proceed
as
planned.
Present plans call for-field experimentation
FEDERAL
COUNCIL
FOR
SCIENCE
AND
TECHNOLOGY
INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEB FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
U.S.
DEPARTMENT
OF
COMMERCE
WASHINGTON,
D.C.
20230
June
21,
1966
MEMORANDUM
FOR DR.
HOMER
Subject: National Weathe
T
Modification Program
At its Sixty-fourth Meeting on June
20,
1966
ICAS agreed
to proceed with the deve1opm;:nt of a National Weather
Modification Program along the lines delineated in the
report
of
its Select Panel on Weather Modification of
the same date.
You are requested to formulate this program with such
assistance as you may request from any or all
ICAS
members. You are specifically provided the assistance
of
a
qualified weather modification scientist from each
of the following agencies:
ESSA,
Bureau
of
Reclamation,
NSF, Department
of
Agriculture
.
YOU are requested to provide at least these three elements
in the Program:
1.
Analysis of a major program
of
weather modification
for the needed expansion of activity toward the goals of
fog and cloud dissipation, precipitation modification,
etc.
as
delineated in the Select Panel Report and toward
such other goals
as
you may want to specify.
2.
ing activities as computers, mobile facilities, etc.
Analysis of the techniques to be
used
and such support-
3.
Definition of what agencies should carry out the
activities recommended,
first as to responsibility for the
program (budget support),
and second as to actually con-
ducting the activity. If you are unable to recommend
specific allocation
of
responsibility your recommendations
for the solution
of
the problem should be included.
IV-1
APPENDIX
IV
2
I
believe
the following documents provide substantive
background information that
would
assist
you.
Copies
are enclosed.
ICAS
Memo
to Dr. Hornig dated March
11,.
1966
S.
2916
as amended
May
12,
1966
BOB
Circular
A-62
dated November
13,
1963
The Federal
Plan
for
Met orological Services
and Supporting
Researc
FY
1967
f
IV-2
NASA
PANEL TO STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES
MEMBERSHIP
CHRONOLOGY
OF
MEETINGS
COMPILATION OF SUPPORTING
MATERIAL USED BY THE PANEL
APPENDIX V
V-l
PANEL TO STUDY WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES
Membership
Homer E. Newell, Associate Administrator for Space Science
and Applications, NASA Headquarters, Chairman
J Allen Crocker, Deputy Director, Program Review and
Resources Management, OSSA, NASA Headquarters
Leonard Jaffe, Director of Applications, OSSA, NASA
Headquarters
Ernest
A.
Neil, Senior Staff Assistant, Project Directorate,
Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
William Nordberg, Assistant Chief, Laboratory for Atmospheric
and Biological Sciences, GSFC
Nelson
W.
Spencer, Chief
,
Laboratory for Atmospheric and
Biological Sciences, GSFC
William C. Spreen, Meteorology and Soundings Program Chief,
Space Applications Programs, OSSA, NASA Headquarters
I
Morris Tepper, Director of Meteorology, Space Applications
Programs
,
OSSA, NASA Headquarters
v-2
PANEL
TO
STUDY
WEATHER
MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES
Chaired by
Homer
E.
Newell
Associate Administrator
for
Space Science
&
Applications
NASA Headquarters
Chronology of Meetings
21
June 1966, NASA Headquarters
Receipt
of
Hollomon
memo
dated
21
June
1966 giving
assignment
to
Homer
E.
Newell,
and
the
organization
of a
Panel
to
assist
Newell
27,28
June 1966, NASA
Hqs
Panel briefings by Department of
Interior,
Depart-
ment
of
Commerce,
Department of Agriculture, National
Science Foundation, Bureau of
the
Budget, and Office
of
Science and Technology
28
June 1966, NASA
Hqs
Executive
Panel
session
1
July 1966, NASA
Hqs
Panel briefing
by
Dr.
Earl
Droessler
26 July 1966,
NASA
Hqs
Pane
1
staff meeting
15-18,25
August 1966, GSFC
Panel sessions
with
Agriculture,
Interior,
ESSA, NSF
6
September 1966, NASA
Hqs
Pane
1
meeting
7
September 1966,
GSFC
Ad
hoc session
V-3
9 September 1966,
OST
Report
to
Hornig,
OST
21,26
September
1966,
NASA
Hqs
Ad
hoc
sessions
28 September 1966,
NASA
Hqs
Panel
meeting
v-4
Panel to Study Weather Modification Activities
Chaired by
H.
E. Newell
Supporting Material Used by the Panel
OVERALL
1.
2.
3.
4.
Memorandum for Dr. Homer E. Newell from
J.
Herbert
Hollomon, Chairman, ICAS, Subject: National Weather
Modification Program, dated June 21,
1966
Report prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on Weather
Modification PRESENT AND FUTURE PLANS OF FEDERAL
AGENCIES IN WEATHER-CLIMATE MODIFICATION, dated
June 20, 1966
Final
Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate
Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,
National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council
WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS,
Volume I-SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS, Volume IT-RESEARCH
AND
DEVELOPMENT, Publication
No,
1350,
1966
U.S.
Senate Bill (S.2916
-
89th Congress) to be proposed
by Magnuson, to provide for a weather modification program
to be carried out by the Secretary of Commerce, May 12,
1966, Referred to the Committee on Commerce
DEPARTMENT
OF
AGRICULTURE
5.
6.
7.
U.S.
Department of Agriculture presentation to Newell
on June 28, 1966
Weather Modification Program Analysis
Summary of Weather Modification Research Program
Statement of
T.
C. Byerly, Administrator, Cooperative
State Research Service, United States Department of Agri-
culture, on S.2916 before the Committee
on
Commerce,
U.S.
Senate, on March
7,
1966
V-5
8.
U.
S.
Dept.
of
Agriculture Forest Service A SUMMARY OF
PROJECT SKYFIRE dated September
1,
1966,
transmitted
by
letter to Crocker from
J.
S.
Barrows, Director, Forest
Fire Research, dated September
6, 1966
DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR
9.
WATER RESOURCES IN
THE
SKY,
Stewart
L.
Udall, Bulletin
American Meteorological Society,
Vol
47,
No.
4,
April
1966,
pg
275-278
(Speech presented at the 46th Annual
Meeting of the
AMs,
Evening Banquet,
26
January
1966,
Denver, Colorado)
10.
Presentation to ICAS on May
13,
1966,
PLANS FOR THE DEPART-
MENT
OF THE INTERIOR'S ATMOSPHERIC WATER RESOURCES PROGRAM
11.
Dept.
of
Interior, Manpower Requirements and Cost Esti-
mates (from Sept
1966
Plan Report)
12.
Estimates
of
Facilities and
Major
Equipment and Services
in support
of
the Dept,
of
Interior's Program received
16
August
1966
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
13
.
14.
15
.
Draft
SUMMARY
OF INFORMATZON RELATED TO
MR.
CROCKER FROM
FERGUSON
HALL
dated August
26, 1966,
regarding ESSA man-
power requirements related to Weather Modification
ESSA Weather Modification Program Review for Newel1
on
June
28,
1966
Outline of A PROPOSED FIVE-YEAR PLAN IN WEATHER MODI-
FICATION,
U.
S.
Department
of
Commerce, Environmental
Science Services Administration, April
1966;
with
ATTACHMENT: FISCAL
AND
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS with
Addendum FISCAL
AND
MANPOWER DATA FOR
1966
AND
1967
ESSA Weather Modification Program Schedule, Fiscal
Years
1967-1970
V-6
16.
17.
18.
Presentation by the
Deputy Federal Coordinator
for Meteorological Services
&
Supporting Research
(Moore)
THE FEDERAL PLAN FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND
SUPPORTING RESEARCH, FISCAL YEAR
1967,
U.S.
Department of Commerce, Environmental Science
Services Administration, Office
of
Federal
Coordinator for Meteorological Services and
Supporting Research
Summary papers of ESSA presentations at the Weather
Modification Review meeting, GSFC, August
17, 1966
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
19.
Report
of
the Special Commission on Weather Modifica-
tion, National Science Foundation, WEATHER
AND
CLIMATE
MODIFICATION, Publication No.
NSF
66-3,
transmitted to
NSF December
20, 1965
20.
Report
to
the Special Commission on Weather Modification,
National Science Foundation, WEATHER MODIFICATION
LAW,
CONTROLS, OPERATIONS, Publication
No.
NSF
66-7
(no
date)
21.
National Science Foundation Act
of
1950
(PL
507-81st
Congress) As Amended Through August
15,
1963,
and as
Modified by Reorganization Plan No.
2
of
1962,
Effec-
tive June
8,
1962
22.
First Annual Report,
1959,
National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
60-24
23.
Second Annual Report,
1960,
National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
61-30
24.
Third Annual Report,
1961,
National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
62-27
v-7
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
Fourth Annual Report,
1962,
National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
63-29
Fifth Annual Report,
1963,
National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
64-19
Sixth Annual Report,
1964,
National Science FouI.,~+
LU,,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
65-9
Seventh Annual Report,
1965,
National Science Foundation,
WEATHER MODIFICATION, NSF
66-4
Proceedings
of
THE
SEVENTH INTERAGENCY CONFERENCE ON
WEATHER MODIFICATION, September
30
-
October
1,
1965,
Big Meadows Lodge, Skyline Drive, Shenandoah National
Park, Virginia
Report of the FIRST NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
HAIL
SUPPRES-
SION. Dillon, Colorado, October
14-15, 1965
HUMAN DIMENSIONS
OF
WEATHER MODIFICATION, W. R. Derrick
Sewell (Ed),
U
of Chicago, Dept of Geography, Res Paper
No.
105, 1966
(Papers prepared in connection with
a
Symposium on the Economic and Social Aspects of Weather
Modification which was held at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado,
from July
1-3, 1965,
under NSF sponsorship)
PRESENT PROGRAM AND FUTURE PLANS OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE
FOUNDATION IN WEATHER
AND
CLIMATE MODIFICATION RESEARCH,
Revised June
27, 1966
Letter to Dr. Newel1 from
P.
H.
Wq’ckoff, dated June
28,
1966,
regarding the NSF Weather Modification Program
with enclosure, “Critique
by
Presenter”
V-8
BUDGET
RECOMMENDATIONS
AND
TRENDS
for a
National Weather Modification Program
APPENDIX
VI
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U.S.
GOVERNMENT PRINTING
OFFICE:
1967-251-026/100
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