Attainment,applicationsandHE
progression
AseriesofstudiesbytheSuttonTrustand
othershaveconrmedthatattainmentin
A-levelsorequivalentexaminationsisbyfarthe
biggestfactordeterminingthechancesofbeing
acceptedintouniversities.Manyofthestark
ndingsonHEprogressioninthisreportreect
thedifferencesinattainmentlevelsbetween
schools.ButtheHEtablesalsorevealdifferent
HEprogressionratesforindividualschoolswith
similarlevelsofattainment.
Areportpublishedin2009bytheTrustand
theDepartmentforBusinessInnovation,and
Skillsfoundthatpupilsfromindependent
schoolsinthetopfthofschoolsaccording
toaverageAlevelattainment,onaverage
made twice as many applications to 13 highly
selectiveuniversitiesthantheirpeersfrom
comprehensive schools with similar overall
levelsofattainment.
Asaconsequence,astudentwiththeequivalent
ofABBatAlevel(includingatleastone‘core
academic’Alevel)whoattendedanindependent
schoolhada79%chanceofenteringoneofthe
500 most selective degree courses, compared
with70%forasimilarstudentattendingastate
maintained school.
Schoolleaguetablesprovidevaluableinformation
onexaminationperformance,butwhathappens
then?Particularlyat18,examinationsareameans
toanend,withnearly70percentofthosestaying
ontotheendofsixthformprogressingtohigher
education. It is crucial that schools and colleges give
high-qualityguidanceoncareerpathsandofferthe
bestpossiblepreparationforstudentswhochoose
the university route.
Universitiesdisclosethetypesofschoolfromwhich
theyattracttheirstudents,butthisinformation
doesnotrevealtheoftenconsiderabledifferences
between schools in similar circumstances and even
withsimilarresults.Thisreportisanattempttollin
the gaps, using the results and student destinations
of3,167schoolsthroughouttheUKtoidentifytrends
bothbetweendifferenttypesofschoolandwithin
institutionsofsimilarlevelsofachievement.The
objectiveistodeterminewhethertherearelessons
thatcanbelearnedfromthemostsuccessful
schools and colleges.
The data used in this analysis covers three years,
2007-09,inordertoreducethelikelihoodof
distortionfromunusuallygoodorbadoutcomesin
a single year. Comparisons are made with other
schoolsandcollegeswithsimilarscoresonthetariff
usedbytheUniversitiesandCollegesAdmissions
Service. No conclusions are drawn about those
scores;merelyaboutthelevelofprogressionto
highereducation.Schoolswithfewerthantenhigher
educationapplicantsperyearhavebeenexcluded
fordataprotectionreasons.
Thisinformationmayappearintheannualreports
published by schools and colleges, although
thereisnolegalrequirementforittobegivenin
full.Consequently,destinationsdatawilloftenbe
couchedinthemostadvantageousformforthe
institution.Anindependentschoolmayquotethe
numberofleaversgoingtoOxfordandCambridge,
while a comprehensive may give the numbers
goingontohighereducationofanysort.Others
again will name the universities that are taking their
candidates, but not the numbers.
Schoolscannotbeblamedforportrayingtheirresults
inthebestpossiblelight,butdifferencesinpractice
makeithardforparentstocompareperformance.
Theguresinthisreportsuggestthatthereare
wide variations between apparently similar schools
andcollegesbothintermsofthenumbersgoing
ontoHEandthetypesofuniversitytheyattend.
Beyond the results they produce, schools appear
todifferconsiderablyinthelevelsofaspiration
theyengenderintheirpupilsandinthequalityof
preparationforselectionforhighereducation.
Thisreportlooksattheproportionofstudentsgoing
toHEofanysortandtheproportiongoingtothe
30 most selective universities, known as the Sutton
Trust30.Thereisafurtheranalysisoftheproportion
ofstudentsgoingtoOxfordandCambridge
universities,butguresarenotsuppliedforevery
school and college because in many cases the
numbersaretoosmalltobestatisticallysignicant.
Nearly 2,000 schools – more than half of our
sample – sent no more than two students to
Oxbridge over the three years of the study.
However,thetwocategoriesof‘selective’
universities and all higher education produce their
owncontrasts.Atotalof532schoolshadfewerthan
ten admissions to Sutton Trust 30 universities over
thethreeyearsofthestudy,whileatthetenmost
successfulschoolsbythismeasure,morethana
thirdofallstudentswentontoselectiveuniversities.
Bycalculatingthemeanscoresofsuccessful
applicantsineachcategory,itispossibletoproject
thelikelynumbersofentrantsfromeachschool.
Naturally,alargenumberofschoolsoutperformthe
projectionsbyasignicantmargin,butrelativelyfew
dosoinbothcategories.Theguressuggestthat
manyschoolsfocusonthelessselectiveinstitutions
inordertomaximiseprogressiontohigher
education, while others pay particular attention to
anarrowerrangeofcandidatescapableofentryto
more selective universities.
Thisstudyconrmsthatschoolswithsimilarexam
resultscanhaveverydifferentprogressionrates.At
twogrammarschoolswithalmostidenticalA-level
results,forexample,onerecordedanaverageof65
percentofstudentsgoingtoselectiveuniversities,
whiletheothermanagedonly28percent.Attwo
low-scoringcomprehensives,againwithnear-
identicalUcastariffscores,almost70percentof
18-year-oldsappliedtohighereducationatone,only
33 per cent in the other.
Similardiscrepanciescanbefoundamong
independentschoolsandothersub-setsofstate
education.Therearewidevariations,forexample,
between local authorities, largely mirroring those in
tablesofexaminationresults.Onsomemeasures,
starkdifferencesarevisiblebetweenwholeregions.
All but one of the dozen authorities sending
more than 2 per cent of state school A-level
candidates to Oxford or Cambridge is in the
south-east of England. Trafford is the exception.
Thegulfbetweendifferenttypesofschoolintermsof
progression to higher education is predictably large.
Thetop100schoolsforadmissionstotheSutton
Trust 30 universities comprise 87 independent
schools and 13 grammar schools. Between them,
theyaccountforonly3percentoftheschoolswith
sixth-formsandsixth-formcolleges,but11percent
ofentriestoOxfordandCambridge.
InEnglandoverthethreeyearsofthestudy,
almost88percentofthosewhoappliedtohigher
educationfromschoolsandcollegesfoundaplace
somewhere,buttheproportionrangedfrom93
per cent in grammar schools and 91 per cent in
independentschoolstojustover80percentin
furthereducationcolleges.Inthemostselective
universities,notsurprisingly,thedifferenceswere
muchgreater.Theywerethedestinationsofalmost
58percentofapplicantsinindependentschoolsand
50 per cent in grammar schools, but only 22 per cent
in comprehensive schools.
Yetitisthedifferencesbetweenschoolswith
similarresults,regardlessofsector,thatarethe
most revealing. Some schools, notably but not
exclusivelyintheindependentsector,faroutperform
theprojectionsoftheirstudents’progressionbothto
higher education in general and to the Sutton Trust
30universities.Theirmethodsofguidingstudents’
choicesandpreparingthemforuniversitywarrants
furtherinvestigation.
Some schools are doing much better than others
atenablingtheirstudentstofulltheirpotentialfor
degree-levelstudy.WhileHEisnotthemostsuitable
destinationforallpupilswhostayonineducationto
theageof18,itconfersmeasurableadvantagesin
thelabourmarketaswellasbenetingtheindividual
intermsofpersonaldevelopment.
Thereisahighrateofprogressiontosomeformof
highereducationamongsixthformstudents,butthis
isnotthecaseatallschools.Ratesofprogressionto
the most selective universities are particularly
variable,evenallowingfordifferencesinUCAStariff
scores.
Sincetherewardsforsocialmobilityandcareer
advancement tend to be greatest at the more
selectiveuniversities,thisisamajorconcern.
4DegreesofSuccess DegreesofSuccess5
Introduction Introduction