Table 17 evaluates the performance of each decarbonization portfolio along several key generation
metrics that were described in detail in Section 3.4.
Analyzing the portfolio of each decarbonization scenario and resulting performance metrics yields several
interesting observations.
On retiring all 11 GW of coal by 2050 in the Reference scenario, the Greater Northwest system
requires 20 GW of new capacity in order to meet the 2.4 hrs./yr. LOLE standard used in the study.
This suggests that 9 GW of net new firm capacity is needed to account for load growth through
2050.
The integration of more renewables and conservation policies provides the energy needed to
serve loads in a deeply decarbonized future, but new gas-fired generation capacity is needed for
relatively short, multi-day events with low renewable generation, high loads, and low hydro
availability.
To reduce GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels, RECAP chooses to build 38 GW of wind, 11
GW of solar, and 2 GW of 4-hour storage. In addition to this renewable build, 12 GW of new firm
capacity is required for reliability (after retaining all the existing natural gas plants) which is
assumed to be met through natural gas build. The generation portfolio under 80% Reduction
Scenario results in a 100% clean portfolio standard and 90% GHG-free generation.
RECAP achieves deeper levels of decarbonization (GHG emissions 98% below 1990 level down to
1.0 MMT GHG/yr) by overbuilding renewables with 54 GW of wind, 29 GW of solar, and 7 GW of
4-hour storage. Annual renewable oversupply becomes significant (at 21%). Nevertheless, the
system still requires an additional gas build of 2 GW after retaining all existing natural gas plants,
to ensure reliability during periods of low renewable generation. The capacity factor for these gas
plants is extremely low (3%), underlining their importance for reliability.
The 100% GHG Reduction Scenario (Zero Carbon Scenario) results in no GHG emissions from the
electricity sector. The generation portfolio consists only of renewables (97 GW of wind and 46
GW of solar) and energy storage (29 GW of 6-hour storage). Ensuring a reliable system using only
renewables and energy storage requires a significant amount of renewable overbuild – resulting