CONNOR, CLARK & LUNN UCITS ICAV
INVESTMENT MANAGER’S REPORT
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2023
3
Financial Market Review
The global macroeconomic backdrop strengthened early in 2023 and contributed to a strong start for
global equity markets in January, largely in response to China’s economic reopening and lower
natural gas prices in Europe. In March, financial markets experienced a significant shock when a
confluence of factors led to a bank run across US regional banks that ultimately resulted in the
second- and third-largest US bank failures in history. Despite support from federal regulators, the
turbulence spilled over into Europe with the collapse of Switzerland’s Credit Suisse, a systematically
important financial institution that was ultimately merged with its largest domestic peer, UBS.
Inflation has remained higher than expected which has resulted in further interest rate hikes by central
banks in developed markets. Overall, despite recession fears, economic activity and corporate
earnings have proved more resilient against higher interest rates. In the second quarter, investor
sentiment improved in response to multiple factors, including the resolution of the US debt ceiling
discussions, as well as growing enthusiasm regarding artificial intelligence (AI) that helped to bolster
the outlook for the technology sector.
Early in the third quarter, widespread expectations for a soft landing were supported by resilient
economic activity and slowing inflation. As the quarter progressed, however, the increased likelihood
that interest rates could remain elevated for a prolonged period of time negatively impacted market
sentiment. Robust North American economic releases suggested the economy might be able to
withstand higher interest rates, while monetary policymakers maintained a somewhat aggressive
stance on interest rates. This caused a spike in bond yields, which reached new highs for this
economic cycle near the end of September. Equity markets, which had been relatively stable over the
summer months, declined in the final weeks of the quarter, and posted negative returns over the
period. Oil production cuts led to a surge in crude oil prices, which also heightened concern about
higher inflation.
US economic releases pointed to strength early in the fourth quarter, which fuelled concern about
further interest rate increases. In November, however, the market narrative shifted in response to
signs of a slowing economy and data showing the potential for a return to a broader disinflationary
trend. This rejuvenated the “soft landing” theme, where inflation and economic growth slow but
avoid a recession, which would allow monetary policymakers to shift away from their tightening
measures. This notion gained further momentum when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoted toward
a more “dovish” stance, meaning the potential for interest rate reductions, even as US economic
indicators remained largely resilient. Bond yields initially spiked, particularly in the US and equity
markets were relatively weak through October. There was a sharp turnaround in November and
December, however, with plunging bond yields and surging stock prices resulting in a strong quarter
for both bond and equity markets. Despite the announcement of additional production cuts by major
producers, crude oil did not participate in the year-end rally, as there was some market concern about
the sustainability and consistency of these cuts.