U.S. National Interests in Ukraine
By: Benjamin Giltner
Benjamin Giltner is a Master of International Affairs student at the Bush School of Government
and Public Service at Texas A&M University. His main interests pertain to grand strategy,
conflict resolution, national security, and diplomacy.
War is afoot in Ukraine. Its impact has been tragic. Ukrainian civilians are being targeted,
with one of the most recent attacks being upon a Ukrainian children's hospital. On the other side,
over 7,000 Russian soldiers have died, and protests have been suppressed throughout the
country. What is the U.S. to do? Here, three points are elaborated upon: the U.S. national
interests in Ukraine, the impact of these interests on the American people, and the reasoning that
the U.S. should not go to war against Russia.
The U.S. has two national interests in this war in Ukraine. First, is to end this war as soon
as possible. Wars tend to be concluded in one of two ways: through negotiated settlements, or
through unconditional surrender. The Congress of Vienna and the Treaty of Versailles epitomize
these two forms of ending wars respectively. To end the war In Ukraine as soon as possible, the
U.S. should pursue the pathway of negotiated settlement. It is the lesser of two evils.
Unconditional surrender will most probably result in Russia digging in its heels, namely with
Vladimir Putin’s political legitimacy being on the line. As Mark Galeotti makes apparent in his
book, A Short History of Russia: How the World's Largest Country Invented Itself, from the
Pagans to Putin, Putin has created a quasi-social contract with the Russian people: do not
criticize his regime and he will bring the people and elite prosperity. With sanctions targeting
Russian elites and society, Putin is at risk of losing this legitimacy. As Andrea Kendall-Taylor
makes apparent in a recent article, the only way for Putin to keep his legitimacy is to come out
with something from this war. In essence, Putin needs to make sure that this war has not been for
nothing. As Herman Pirchner Jr. asserts, the overthrow of Nikita Khrushchev after the Cuban
Missile Crisis makes one ponder how much more risk the Russian elite will tolerate with Putin’s
war against Ukraine.
The second national interest of the U.S. is to refrain from going war against Russia. The
reasoning for this is simple: the invasion of Ukraine does not risk the national security of the
U.S. There is no possibility of Russia invading the shores of the U.S. As Barry Posen asserts in
his 2013 piece in Foreign Affairs, the geographic position of the U.S. makes it one of the most
secure nations in the world.
Prudence is needed to ensure that the U.S. does not go to war, nor get inadvertently
entangled in this war. Firstly, implementing a “no-fly zone” is a recipe for disaster. Ukrainian
president Volodymyr Zelensky has pressed for the U.S. and the West to implement this no-fly
zone over Ukrainian skies. As notable experts in the field of international affairs and politics
warned in an open letter, war would be almost inevitable if the U.S. were to commit to a no-fly
zone. Second, there are dangers to the U.S. sending weapons to Ukraine. Russia threatened to
attack these weapons shipments sent from NATO countries. Given that all NATO members are
guaranteed collective security protection under NATO’s Article 5, such possible attacks upon
weapon shipments bring a real possibility of the U.S. going to war. While the Biden
administration rejected the call for a U.S.-led no-fly zone, U.S. policymakers are approving more
military supply shipments to Ukraine. To ensure that the U.S. does not become entangled in this
war, it is crucial to limit, if not all out eliminate, U.S. military involvement in this war.
In order to accomplish these two U.S. national interests, the U.S. will need to support the
“Finlandization” of Ukraine. Finlandization refers to a policy of neutrality of Finland during the
Cold War, where the Soviet Union maintained a degree of political influence over Finland. Putin
has lambasted the NATO expansion throughout his presidency— especially on the prospect of
Ukraine joining the alliance. The policy of Finlandization would satisfy both parties — Russia
would have a neutral Ukraine on its border, and Ukraine would be able to maintain its
sovereignty. In other words, if Ukraine is to have any sort of independence, the U.S. must set
aside its ambitions to extend NATO.
It is quite possible that Ukraine can become a republic in the future. However, to have
any chance of this occurring, Ukraine must be free from war and of the invading Russian
military. The brave fortitude of Ukrainians to push back and defend their country from Russian
encroachment has forced Russia to reduce its political demands in this war. This is a sign that
Russia may be willing to negotiate an end to this war. However, such a scenario will only take
place after Russia is convinced that it is stuck in a quagmire of a war. In essence, Ukraine needs
to become Russia’s Vietnam, or better yet, something synonymous to Russia’s Winter War
against Finland.
Achieving these two interconnected national interests will impact American citizens in
two main ways. First, by supporting a negotiated settlement to the war and refraining from being
entangled in the conflict, American soldiers and citizens will not need to die in the streets of
Ukraine. Essentially, the U.S. would avoid shedding more blood in this war. Second, the U.S.
would avoid spending money on military assets for Ukrainians. Inflation is currently at a 40-year
high point in the U.S. Spending billions of dollars on military weapons — dead-end spending —
will not help with this inflation. Instead, such funds should be reserved for possible domestic
spending, and used to help Ukrainian refugees flee as safely as possible. These benefits to
American citizens may seem selfish. However, this is the nature of international politics. As
Kenneth Waltz noted in Theory of International Politics, international politics is a system of
“self-help.”
What Russia is doing in Ukraine heinous. The color red on its national flag will be
forever stained by the blood of Ukrainians. The U.S. has an obligation to ensure that this
bloodshed does not expand to the U.S. and will not extend indefinitely. Ukraine must not be
beholden to the whims of either Russia or the West. The U.S. must maintain its independence
from the political entanglements of other nations and must show support for the independence of
these other nations. While a negotiated settlement may not result in Ukraine being fully
independent from Russia, achieving some freedom is better than not having any at all.
