Spreadsheet-based planning:
A “rough road” plagued with
potholes
While spreadsheet technology has improved over the years,
serious problems persist, especially for those who rely primarily on
spreadsheets for planning and analysis. According to a 2020 study
by the Business Application Resource Center (BARC), only 8% of
Excel users experience “no significant problems” using spreadsheets
for planning.
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Many businesses who use spreadsheets have exposed themselves
to serious risks of spreadsheet error. And though in some cases large
companies can absorb these risks, small and medium businesses
usually cannot. Sad to say, the list of newsworthy episodes continues
to grow. Three examples from recent years illustrate the ongoing
hazards of reliance on spreadsheets.
– In early 2019, a large Canadian firm in the emerging legal cannabis
industry cited “spreadsheet error” as a cause of under-reporting
earnings. The company’s news release said “The correction was
made due to a formula error in the spreadsheet supporting the year-
to-date adjusted EBITDA loss calculation.”
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– In the spring of 2018, a major liquor and wine retailer in the UK lost
60 percent of its market value – £500 million – in a matter of weeks,
due in part to an “arithmetic error” in a spreadsheet. The Times
of London commented, “Not for the first time, human error with
spreadsheets has led to disaster.”
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– In May of 2018, a large number of young doctors in the UK “had job
offers rescinded following an error in the administrative process.”
What happened? “A spreadsheet error was made in transferring
data from one system to another.” Besides embarrassing the
organization, the situation “caused ‘extreme anxiety’ for those who
have made life choices based upon these offers, including arranging
moves and putting deposits on new homes.”
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When used for modern planning processes, spreadsheets and user
errors can cast serious doubt on the integrity of strategic plans. They
make plans and reports difficult to maintain and often inhibit – rather
than facilitate – a collaborative, company-wide planning process. And
as business plans and analyses become larger and more complex, the
inadequacy of spreadsheet-based systems is only magnified.
Most common types of
spreadsheet errors
According to experts and academics who have researched
spreadsheet effectiveness, three primary types of error typically
occur in spreadsheet models.
– The first is mechanical error, which arises from mistakes in keying in
data, cutting and pasting, or other simple manual operations. While
a mechanical error may at first appear minor, incorrectly entered
data can affect the integrity of an entire model. Furthermore,
planning models tend to grow in size and complexity as available
computing power increases. As the models grow, the errors created
within them increase in both volume and severity.
– The second type of error is logic error, where an inappropriate
algorithm is chosen or inapt formulas are created to implement
the algorithm. The resulting flawed calculations affect not only the
individual worksheet where the error appears, but the entire model,
as well.
– The third, and one of the most common types of error, is the error of
omission, where critical components are left out of a model entirely.
Errors of omission, of course, are very hard to spot. As a user labors
through multiple worksheets in a complex plan, the likelihood is
great that a critical item will simply not be inserted and its absence
will not be noticed. This type of error occurs because you can’t plan
at a granular level using spreadsheets, which means you’re forced to
combine data points.
Whether a given error is one of mechanics, logic or omission, the result
will be the same: a flawed model and inaccurate calculations, hence
an inaccurate or ineffective plan, forecast or report. While many large
corporate finance departments have adopted dedicated planning
solutions, at the department or line-of-business level, where many of
the most important daily decisions are made, the spreadsheet is still
the default planning tool.
41% of Excel users say spreadsheets cannot
handle their data volumes
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IBM Watson Spreadsheets are holding you back 3