9
combustion sales by as early as 2038. But regardless of source, each major model does predict a continued
growth curve in EV sales.
5
The rate of adoption is important because the increased deployment of electric
vehicles in lieu of internal combustion engine (ICE) technology is an important strategy to reduce emissions,
total cost of ownership and energy usage in the transportation sector.
But the pairing of electric motors and autonomous vehicles is not a given.
.6
In order for Austin to help
accelerate EV adoption on a wider consumer scale beyond fleets, incentives and innovative policies to
purchase and drive EVs will need to be complemented with increased electric charging infrastructure.
Infrastructure
Autonomous
Driving
Connectivity and
Internet of Things
Shared Moblity
Public Transit
Decentralization
of Energy System
Electrification
of Vehicles
6
6
8
4
4
1
1
5
5
3
3
2
2
7
7
8
1 2 3 4 5
Full Autonomy
(no human)
INDUSTRIAL PROCESS
Associated with manufacturing
METHANE PRODUCED BY LANDFILLS
Caused by the trash we generate
TRANSPORTATION
Such as cars, buses and trucks
In 2015, there were approximately
700,000 light-duty single occupancy
cars and trucks on the road in Travis County*
*City of Austin Office of Sustainability, Austin Community Climate Plan, June 10, 2015
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50%
City of Austin
Fully Autonomous
Source: Boston Consulting Group, "Revolution in the Driver's Seat:
The Road to Autonomous Vehicles," 2015.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Taming the Autonomous
Vehicle: A Primer for Cities,” March 2017, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Austin Community Climate Plan Summary,”
January 2017, City of Austin Office of Sustainability."
Source: American Community Survey
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Dashboard 2017: Key Economic Indicators for Greater
Austin and Travis County,” May 2017, Community Action Network.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Austin Community Climate Plan Summary,”
January 2017, City of Austin Office of Sustainability."
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Taming the Autonomous Vehicle: A Primer for Cities,” March 2017, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Recreated with permission from “Advanced Energy
Jobs in California.” 2016, AEE Institute
Graphic recreated with permission, from “New Mobility: Today’s Technology
and Policy Landscape,” July 2017, International Council on Clean Transportation.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from “Smart City Challenge,” U.S. Department of Transportation
Graphic recreated, with permission, from “Stick Shift: Autonomous Vehicles,
Driving Jobs, and the Future of work,” 2017, Center for Global Policy Solutions.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from “Shared Mobility Benefits Calculator,” Shared-Use Mobility Center.
*Per city staff evaluation. May be subject to change.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from “Future Autonomous Vehicle Driver Study,” September 2016, Kelley Blue Book.
Source: SAE J3016™
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "An integrated perspective on the future of mobility,”
October 2016, McKinsey & Company, www.mckinsey.com. Copyright (c) 2017 McKinsey & Company.
All rights reserved.
An uptake in shared mobility will accelerate electrification,
as higher utilization favours the economics of electric vehicles
Electric vehicle production at scale would accelerate
baery cost reductions, with multiple effects
Self-driving electric vehicles will have different usage and
hence different requirements for charging infrastructure
Increasing renewable power generation will make electric
vehicles more aractive as a means to reduce the carbon intensity
of the transport sector
Self-driving vehicles might accelerate the uptake of IoT applications
Self-driving could merge shared mobility business models
into a single proposition competitive with private car
ownership and public transport
Self-driving –private and shared –vehicles are likely to
increase mobility consumption in which case electric
vehicles offer lower total cost of ownership
An uptake in shared mobility will affect public transit
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Taming the Autonomous Vehicle: A Primer for Cities,”
March 2017, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Source: American Community Survey
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "2017 City of Portland
Electric Vehicle Strategy," December 2016, City of Portland
Bureau of Planning and Sustainability.
Source: A.T. Kearney
Graphic recreated, with permission, from "Taming the
Autonomous Vehicle: A Primer for Cities,” March 2017,
Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Graphic recreated, with permission, from, “Downton Austin
Parking Strategy,” June 2017, Downtown Austin Alliance.
On-demand mobility
Safety considerations
Improved air quality
Opportunities to shed
private vehicle
Mobility for seniors
The vehicle type fully addresses the stated goal
The vehicle type partially addresses the stated goal. The level at which
the goal is achieved depends on the specific situation or regulations involved.
The vehicle type either does not address the stated goal or more
information is needed
Mobility for persons
with disabilities
Partially Autonomous
Not Autonomous
Travis County Austin MSA
Owners Renters
Texas USA
ENERGY
Produced and used. Such as
electricity and natural gas.
Full Autonomy
(+ human)
Partial Autonomy
Adult Non-Drivers
Percent of New
Global Vehicle Sales
Additional Vehicle Miles Traveled (US)
Medically
Impaired Adults
Healthy
Elderly
Modern PlusModern VehicleHuman Only
194B 55B 46B
$51B
$83B
$189B
$95B
$298B
$260B
Uber, GM/Lyft, nuTonomy
4
4,000-6,000 lbs
4-6 passengers
25-35 mph
Pisburgh, San Francisco, Singapore
Autovot: AV taxi providing sequential private
rides Taxibot: AV taxi shared simultaneously
by several passengers
Automated minibus for carrying groups of people
over short distances, usually on pre-mapped routes
AV cart providing last-mile
light goods distribution
Single or platooned tractor-trailer
providing long-haul freight transport
Navya, Local Motors, Easymile,
Auro Robotics
4
6,000-8,000 lbs
10-12 passengers
25-35 mph
Lyons, Helsinki, Washington D.C.
Starship Technologies
6
40-55 lbs
0 passengers
4 mph
Talinn, London, Bern,
Redwood City, CA,
Washington D.C.
Oo (Volvo), Scania
18
33,000 lbs
44,000 lbs cargo
55 mph
Colorado, Roerdam, EU (various)
Advanced
Grid Technologies
Advanced Fuels
Advanced
Generation
Advanced
Transportation
Building
Energy Efficiency
SEATTLE – shared data would provide
dynamic routing for truck traffic, promote
off-peak and overnight deliveries, and enable
car share operators to deliver packages
LAS VEGAS – new connected autonomous
shules would transport workers to Las
Vegas Boulevard, and new solar powered
electric vehicle charging stations would help
reduce emissions
NEW ORLEANS – dynamically routed
on-demand minibuses would provide
affordable first mile/last mile transportation
options to underserved communities
ATLANTA – a network of
multimodal transportation
centers serving as hubs for
mobility, economic development,
and community activity
DETROIT – partnerships with industry leaders
in the automotive and technology fields and
academic institutions would help provide access
to electric car shares, automated shules, and
on-demand delivery trucks through integrated
mobility apps
BOSTON – “radically programmable” city
streets with dynamic markings that can
change from loading zones, to thoroughfares,
to spaces for street hockey, depending on
the time of day and season
VMT VMT
53%
36%
5%
6%
Currently, 13.7 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases
Are Emitted Community-Wide From:
Key Trends
Reinforcing Eects
Levels of Vehicle Autonomy
Who Will Travel More with AVs
2012 Work Commute Mode
Share for Multnomah County
2012 Work Commute Mode
Share for Austin/Travis County
2030 Target Commute Mode
Share for Multnomah County
AVs will potentially grow the total VMT by 14 percent,
totalling up to 295 billion additional VMT
Software Will Be a Big AV Business
Advanced Energy Employment by Segment, 2015
Projections of Electric, Semi-Autonomous, and Fully Autonomous Vehicle Sales
Number and Percent of Workers in Driving
Occupations by Occupation, 2010-2014
Austin-Area EV 3-Year Growth
Shared Mobility Benefits Calculator
Autovot/Taxibot Driverless Shuttle
Deliverybot
Software Train
TRANSPORT FREIGHTTRANSPORT PEOPLE
To Stay on Track with Net-Zero Goal, We Need to Reduce Emissions to:
Austin City Council has set the goal of reaching net-zero
community-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Vehicles in Service, Worldwide (%)
Percent of Owner and Renter Households
that are Housing Cost-Burdened, 2015
Human Drivers Become the Minority
13.7 MILLION METRIC TONS
Our Current Footprint
11.3 MILLION METRIC TONS
8 MILLION METRIC TONS
4.6 MILLION METRIC TONS
TO DAY202020302040
2025
2035
$500B
$400B
$300B
200B
$100B
$600B
2020 2025 2030 2035
64%
$3.65 $1.20
36%
Fully autonomous vehicles
Private Parking
Majority is Off-Street
Transit Commuters
36,507
Carshare Vehicles
9,238
Shared Bikes
6,748
Rideshare/Carpoolers
Fewer miles traveled
by personal vehicles
Fewer metric tons of GHG emissions
related to personal vehicle ownership
Saved in prsonal vehicle
transportation costs
17,889
Average Hourly Rate
Demand for Parking Demand for Parking
Average Hourly Rate
Majority is On-Street
Public Parking
TOTAL
PARKING
SUPPLY
Apps, accessories & services
6
38 39 23
5836
VMT
295B
Drive alone
61%
Transit
25%
Bike
25%
Walk
10%
Work at
home
10%
Carpool
10%
Drive alone
20%
Carpool
9%
Walk
6%
Bike
5%
Transit
11%
Taxicab, motorcycle
or other means
1%
Taxicab,
motorcycle or
other means
1%
Bike
1%
Transit
3%
Work at
home
7%
Drive alone
74%
Carpool
10%
Work at
home
Walk
7%
2%
2030 Target Work Commute
Mode Share for Austin/Travis County
?
AUSTIN
PORTLAND
Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding
Source: Carnegie Mellon University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2016).
24%
25%
24% 24%
21%
46% 46% 46%
47%
3500
3000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4500
4000
2015
3972
4
6 8 10 12 42 6 8 10 12
2016
2017
Data provided quartlerly from EPRI for Travis and Williamson County.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
Total Registrations
Baery electric vehicle
Cumulative Registrations by Type
Achievement of Resolution Goals*
Accessibility
Affordability for individuals
and community
Reduced congestion
Ability to evolve future technology
Residents without a driver’s
license access to a car
ELECTRIC
SHARED
AUTONOMOUS
63%
28%
4%
4%
1%
0
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50%
90%
80%
70%
60%
100%
2020 2025 2030
Electric vehicles (ICCT) Fully autonomous vehicles (IHS)
2035 2040
Level 3+ autonomy (McKinsey)
Fully autonomous vehicles (McKinsey)
BUS DRIVERS: 596,213
DELIVERY AND HEAVY
TRUCK DRIVERS: 3,187,046
TO REDUCE
PERSONAL
VEHICLES BY
20%
IN AUSTIN...
1,140,027,400
409,100
$401,912,300
TAXI DRIVERS
AND CHAUFFEURS: 338,366
77%
14%
8%
=
+
42 426 8 10 12
Projections of Electric, Semi-Autonomous
and Fully Autonomous Vehicle Sales