6 | Social Education | January/February 2024

Social Education 88 (1)

©2024 National Council for the Social Studies

The Keys to the White House:

The Outlook for 2024

Allan J. Lichtman

S

ince 1996, I have apprised readers of Social

Education of my predicted presidential elec-

tion results based on the Keys to the White House.

The Keys are a historical-based index system for

of polls and pundits, the Keys predicted Donald

Trump’s victory, and in 2020, the Keys predicted

that he would become the rst president since

George H. W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection

bid (see Table 2 on p. 8).

The Big Picture of Presidential Elections

Under pressure to cover the presidential election

nearly day by day, the media focused on the

horse-race polls that independent and partisan

organizations issue in abundance. However, polls

defeated Dukakis by 8 percent, for a 25-point

swing. Even late polls can be misleading. In 1980,

a Gallup poll two weeks before the election

showed Republican challenger Ronald Reagan

trailing Democratic President Jimmy Carter by 8

percent. Reagan ultimately defeated Carter by

10 percent, for an 18-point swing. In 2012, the

nal Gallup poll just before the election showed

President Barack Obama trailing challenger Mitt

Romney by 1 percent. Obama ultimately defeated

This work presents a unique model for explain-

ing and predicting the outcome of presidential

contests, including 2024. The Keys to the White

House model does not use horse-race polls or

That is, governing, not campaigning, counts in

electing the American president.

The Keys gauge the big picture of a president’s

record, such as midterm election results, internal

nomination contests, third-party challenges, the

social unrest, scandal, and foreign and military

failures and successes. Only two keys relate to the

candidates, asking whether the incumbent or chal-

lenging party candidate is a once-in-generation

broadly inspirational, charismatic gure. Unlike

the Keys require the kind of informed evalua-

tions that historians invariably rely on in drawing

conclusions about past events. Two constraints

distinguish these assessments from the ad hoc

judgments offered by conventional political com-

mentators. First, all judgment calls are made con-

sistently across elections; the threshold standards

established in the study of previous elections must

be applied to future contests. Second, each Key

has an explicit denition, briey summarized in

have no impact on results. Whether or not the sit-

ting president is seeking reelection, the American

electorate chooses a president according to how

well the White House party has governed the

nation, as measured by the consequential events

and episodes of a term. Nothing a candidate has

said or done during a campaign, when the public

discounts everything as political, has changed his

prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, televi-

sion appearances, news coverage, and campaign

cast. This horse race coverage only promotes

negative, shallow, soundbite-driven campaigns.

Where the Keys Stand for 2024

As of this writing in late December 2023,

nal prediction for the general election. However,

unlike any other model at the onset of the election

year, the Keys offer unique insight into the 2024

contest (see Table 3 on p. 9). Despite grousing

among Democrats about Biden’s age and energy,

he represents the best bet for a Democratic vic-

tory. With Biden running again, the incumbent

Democrats secure two Keys, Incumbency Key 3

and Contest Key 2, because he lacks serious chal-

lengers. Neither of his current opponents, author

Contest Key because the party lacks an obvious

heir apparent. Only four more Keys would have

to fall to predict the Democrats’ defeat. The White

House party has lost every election during the

past 100 years in which there is an open seat and

e Keys are statements that favor the reelection of the incumbent party. When ve or fewer statements are false, the

incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

KEY  (Party Mandate): Aer the midterm elections, the

or independent campaign.

recession during the election campaign.

growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth

during the previous two terms.

KEY  (Policy change): e incumbent administration

eects major changes in national policy.

KEY  (Social unrest): ere is no sustained social unrest

military aairs.

KEY  (Foreign/military success): e incumbent

military aairs.

KEY  (Incumbent charisma): e incumbent-party

candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

KEY  (Challenger charisma): e challenging-party

8 | Social Education | January/February 2024

13. Biden made signicant changes in the poli-

cies adopted under President Trump. Through

executive orders, he rescinded much of Trump’s

orders on immigration and environmental regula-

tions and rejoined the Paris Accords on climate

change. He pushed through Congress his most

crucial policy initiative, the tax reform and climate

change bill, without a single Republican vote.

His infrastructure bill passed Congress with only

13 Republican votes in the House and 15 in the

showman who commands media attention but

appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate

rather than achieving broad appeal like Reagan.

There were many Reagan Democrats, but virtually

no Trump Democrats.

Several other Keys lean in Biden’s favor:

Social Unrest Key 8, Scandal Key 9, Short-Term

Economy Key 5, and Long-Term Economy Key 6.

on a straight party-line vote in the U.S. House,

is a political maneuver with no basis in fact. The

Republicans have been trying to pin something

illegal on Joe Biden for years and have come up

empty. Even their selected expert witnesses at

a recent hearing admitted that there was insuf-

cient evidence for an impeachment case against

Biden. What Republicans are cynically trying to do

without evidence is muddy the waters—to make

voters think that Trump is no worse than Biden.

economic growth during the Biden term thus far

substantially exceeds the record of the previous

two terms. It would take an early and deep 2024

recession for the White House party to forfeit Key

6. For the election year, there is no recession cur-

rently on the horizon. However, the economic situ-

ation could change, especially if Republicans fail

to vote on a budget extension and shut down the

Table 2. Published Keys Model Predictions for Elections from 1984 to 2020

 February  “Forecast for ,” Foresight, Feb. 

 January 

perhaps toppling Key 5.

Biden has lost two keys. He lost the Mandate

Key 1, due to Republican gains in the 2022 mid-

term U.S. House elections. He also fails to secure

the Incumbent Charisma Key 12. Biden lacks

broad inspirational appeal. His approval ratings

are among the lowest for any president, and his

age weighs against him.

Three other keys lean against Biden: Third Party

Key 4, Foreign/Military Failure Key 10, and Foreign/

increasingly skeptical of additional American aid

to Ukraine. The war in the Middle East has wrought

death and destruction upon Palestinian civilians in

Gaza with no end in sight.

8 years. More signicant are the unprecedented

91 felony indictments against Trump, including

charges that he subverted American democracy

and jeopardized the nation’s security. These are

the most important indictments in the history of

Trump is a proven master of delay and may

succeed in postponing his trials until after the

Table 3. The 13 Keys to the White House: Current Standings

KEY  PARTY MANDATE FALSE

KEY  CONTEST TRUE

KEY  INCUMBENCY TRUE

KEY  THIRD PARTY LEANS FALSE*

KEY  SHORT-TERM ECONOMY LEANS TRUE*

KEY  LONG-TERM ECONOMY LEANS TRUE*

10 | Social Education | January/February 2024

is tried and found guilty of serious felonies, this

will scramble the race for president in unknown

ways, given the lack of historical antecedents for

analysis.

Campaigning by the Keys

On a positive note, the Keys have implications

for governing the country and conducting

presidential campaigns. The Keys show that what

counts in presidential elections is governing,

Instead, they would strive to conduct substantive

foundations for governing the country during the

next four years, thereby improving the prospects

for themselves or their party to win another term.

Candidates should explain their vision for the

subsequent four years, specify the intended bills

and executive orders of their rst 100 days, and

indicate the kinds of persons they would elevate

to the cabinet, the White House, and the Supreme

Court.