© 2022 National Association of Insurance Commissioners 8
normal and stressed environments for each material risk category in Section 1. This assessment
process should consider a range of outcomes using risk assessment techniques that are appropriate
to the nature, scale, and complexity of the risks. Examples of relevant material risk categories may
include, but are not limited to, credit, market, liquidity, underwriting, and operational risks.
Section 2 may include detailed descriptions and explanations of the material and relevant risks
identified by the insurer, the assessment methods used, key assumptions made, risk-mitigation
activities, and outcomes of any plausible adverse scenarios assessed. The assessment of each risk
will depend on its specific characteristics. For some risks, quantitative methods may not be well
established, and in these cases, a qualitative assessment may be appropriate. Examples of these
risks may include certain operational and reputational risks. In addition, each insurer’s quantitative
methods for assessing risk may vary; however, insurers generally consider the likelihood and
impact that each material and relevant risk identified by the insurer will have on the firm’s balance
sheet, income statement, and future cash flows. Methods for determining the impact on a future
financial position may include simple stress tests or more complex stochastic analyses. When
evaluating a risk, the insurer should analyze the results under both normal and stressed
environments. Lastly, the insurer’s risk assessment should consider the impact of stresses on
capital, which may include the consideration of risk capital requirements; available capital; and
regulatory, economic, rating agency, and/or other views of capital requirements.
The analysis should be conducted in a manner that is consistent with the way in which the business
is managed, whether on a group, legal entity, or another basis. Stress tests for certain risks may be
performed at the group level. Where relevant to the management of the business, some group-level
stresses may be mapped into legal entities. The commissioner may request additional information
to map the results to an individual insurance legal entity.
Any risk tolerance statements should include material quantitative and qualitative risk tolerance
limits and how the tolerance statements and limits are determined, taking into account relevant and
material categories of risk and the risk relationships that are identified.
Because the risk profile of each insurer is unique, each insurer should utilize assessment techniques
(e.g., stress tests, etc.) applicable to its risk profile. U.S. state insurance regulators do not believe
there is a standard set of stress conditions that each insurer should test. The commissioner may
provide input regarding the level of stress that the insurer’s management should consider for each
risk category. The ORSA Summary Report should provide a general description of the insurer’s
process for model validation, including factors considered and model calibration. Unless a
particular assumption is stochastically modeled, the group’s management should set assumptions
regarding the expected values based on its current anticipated experience, what it expects to occur
during the next year or multiple future years, and consideration of expert judgment. The
commissioner may provide input to an insurer’s management on the assumptions and scenarios to
be used in its assessment techniques. For assumptions that are stochastically modeled, the
commissioner may provide input on the level of the measurement metric to use in the stressed
condition or specify particular parameters used in the economic scenario generator (ESG).
Commissioner input will likely occur during the financial analysis process and/or the financial
examination process.
By identifying each material risk category independently and reporting results in both normal and
stressed conditions, insurer management and the commissioner are better placed to evaluate certain
risk combinations that could cause an insurer to fail. One of the most difficult exercises in
modeling insurer results is determining the relationships, if any, between risk categories. History